Texas vs. North Carolina State: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for Texas vs. North Carolina State.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: Texas vs. North Carolina State

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Texas 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Sean Miller’s first season in Austin produced a 18-14 record with a 9-9 SEC finish, and the final three weeks of it looked nothing like the team that had built a viable at-large case through February. Texas lost five of its last six games, capping with a 76-66 loss to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament first round, a 4-14 conference team that outscored the Longhorns 50-18 in the paint and forced 13 turnovers. Miller is now “at peace” with whatever Selection Sunday brings, which is polite language for a team that has played itself onto the bubble. The underlying metrics still work in Texas’s favor. KenPom has them around 37th nationally, the offense ranks 13th in adjusted efficiency, and the strength of schedule ranks 20th. They get to the hoop, take care of the ball, and draw fouls. The Longhorns played 12 opponents who were ranked at some point this season and compiled seven Quad 1 wins. Dailyn Swain is the offensive anchor, a Xavier transfer who followed Miller to Austin and averaged 17.7 points on 55.4 percent shooting with 7.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists, earning All-SEC Second Team recognition in his first season in the league. He is a legitimate NBA talent who can impose his will on any frontcourt in the country. Jordan Pope provides veteran perimeter scoring, and sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis showed the interior presence that keeps the offense dangerous when teams can’t simply load up on Swain. The problem is what happens when the defense loses discipline, which has been a recurring pattern all season. Against Quad I opponents, the Longhorns defense dropped outside the top-150, a concerning metric for ceiling potential out of this team. Miller said publicly that his team could not advance in March “playing just one side of the ball.” They don't allow many second-chance looks but they get into foul trouble and force few turnovers. The offensive profile is promising, the lack of momentum and defensive limitations is what will stop this team from making a deep run.

North Carolina State 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Will Wade delivered on his most aggressive promise. He said North Carolina State would be in the top half of the ACC and in the NCAA Tournament in year one of his tenure, and both promises came true. The Wolfpack went 20-13, finished in the upper half of the ACC standings at 10-8 in conference, and enter the tourney for the first time since the Final Four run in 2024.

NC State’s identity is built around three-point shooting and ball security. Quadir Copeland and Darrion Williams give this team two reliable wing contributors who can score from multiple levels. Paul McNeil Jr. is the perimeter shooter who spaces the floor.

The problem entering March is what happened at the end. The Wolfpack lost six of their final seven regular-season games before snapping the streak against Pittsburgh in the second round of the ACC Tournament, then fell 81-74 to Virginia in the quarterfinals, going 2-for-17 on two-pointers in the second half while the Cavaliers’ 7-foot center, Ugonna Onyenso, repeatedly blocked them out of close looks. Since Feb. 9, the Wolfpack rank 71st nationally with a bottom 250 defense. Wade’s teams are schematically prepared, know how to run half-court offense, and shoot enough threes to stay in any game. But they didn't exactly step up to their competition and come in playing their worst basketball. The question is whether the defensive attention to detail that evaporated down the stretch comes back in a one-game pressure environment in the tournament.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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