The PGA Tour heads to the Coachella Valley for its annual tournament at The American Express this week. A star-studded field of 156 golfers, led by Scottie Scheffler, will play three courses before a 54-hole cut line is enforced, returning to the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West on Sunday.
Oddsmakers are obviously bullish on Scheffler. The 2025 Player of the Year winner makes his season debut at +300 in the outright winner betting market. Ben Griffin is a distant +1900, followed by other prominent names, such as Robert MacIntyre, Russell Henley, and Ludvig Aberg, from +2000 to +2500 odds.
My 2026 Sony Open Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets settled a perfect 3-0 at Waialae this past weekend. J.J. Spaun logged a pedestrian T40 finish, but it was enough to beat Keegan Bradley, who missed the cut, cashing a -125 72 Hole Matchbet wager. Robert MacIntyre’s -7-under-par finish on Sunday cashed a T20 finishing position ticket at plus odds, drawing a T4 finish. Finally, Harry Hall’s T6 finish bested Maverick McNealy to win a second 72 Hole Matchbet wager.
I’m back with three more PGA best bets to tail ahead of Round 1 at The American Express on Thursday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis throughout the 2026 PGA Tour season.
The American Express (2026): Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
72 Hole Matchbet Alex Noren vs. Sepp Straka
Sepp Straka looks to defend his 2025 title successfully at The American Express. This feat hasn’t been achieved in five decades, so the odds are stacked against Straka.
However, we can bet on the Austrian to win his 72 Hole Matchbet prop against Alex Noren. Straka was among the most accurate golfers tee-to-green last season, although his short game alternates between red-hot and ice-cold. He went 7-under-par or lower in three of four rounds, so expect Straka to settle in quickly in his return to La Quinta.
Noren is a veteran on the PGA Tour who logged a T25 finish at this event during his last appearance in 2024. The Swede is a marginal underdog but Straka’s comfort level at this tournament, especially with his tee-to-green accuracy, makes him a worthwhile investment in this prop betting market at -120 odds.
Pick: Sepp Straka (-120)
72 Hole Matchbet Kevin Yu vs. Nick Taylor
Nick Taylor is a slight betting favorite in the 72 Hole Matchbet market against Kevin Yu this week. Both golfers have alternated between finishes near the top of the leaderboard and missing the cut since 2024 at The American Express.
We just saw Taylor get off to a fast start in Hawai’i at the Sony Open before cooling off down the stretch. The Canadian golfer still managed a T13 finish at -9-under-par. He also finished last season ranked 32nd in total strokes gained, including 28th SG: Approach, 24th driving accuracy, and 29th scrambling.
Yu missed the cut in his two PGA outings in November. He finished 2025 ranked 99th SG: Putting, and also missed the cut at The American Express, one year after logging a T3 finish.
Taylor is a more well-rounded golfer, although Yu does have the talent to heat up and drain birdies, which could make this a sweat in the final round at the Stadium Course on Sunday. Ultimately, we should side with Taylor, who is coming off a T12 finish at this event last year, while also logging a T13 finish at Waialae on Sunday.
Pick: Nick Taylor (-125)
Top 5 Finishing Position
Let’s lay the juice in the Top 5 Finishing Position market and invest in World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler at -135 odds. Scheffler didn’t compete at this tournament last season due to a hand injury, however, his last outing in La Quinta yielded a T17 finish in 2024.
Scheffler has only managed a T5 finish at The American Express once since 2020. Despite his shortcomings at this tournament, which is known for being a birdie-fest, Scheffler’s tee-to-green accuracy and consistency are too good to fade.
This prop ultimately comes down to Scheffler’s putter. In 2025, he ranked 22nd SG: Putting, which is an elite metric for most golfers in this field. Scheffler also ranked first in total strokes gained, scoring average, and par 4 scoring.
Let’s not overthink this one. Yes, he’s the only golfer juiced in this market. However, it still feels like Scheffler will wind up on the podium as an extremely short betting favorite in the 2026 American Express field.
Pick: Scottie Scheffler (-135)
