The Perfect Bracket for Large Pools: NCAA Tournament (2026)

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is here, which means it's time to fill out our brackets. But it's important to remember that your strategy should change depending on the type and size of the bracket pool you're in.

If you're in a particularly large bracket pool, there are two strategies to take. Either try to pick a national champion that you don't think anyone else will take, or take a favorite, like Duke or Arizona, and hope that your early-round picks are enough to beat your competition.

Here's what I believe the best large pool strategy is for this year's NCAA Tournament.

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The Perfect Bracket for Large Pools: NCAA Tournament (2026)

National Champion

I'm going a boring route this year and taking Duke. The Blue Devils have been the most consistent team all season, and though they are dealing with some injuries, they should continue to get healthy as the tournament progresses.

Duke's two losses this season were by a combined four points. Meanwhile, two of the other No. 1 seeds, Florida and Michigan, lost by eight or more in their conference tournaments. Pulling away from Duke is nearly impossible, and while some will call the East Region difficult, I don't think UConn, Michigan State, Kansas, or St. John's pose a serious threat.

Another choice that still pertains to my following strategy is Arizona, as I expect the Wildcats to be one of the most popular picks in every large pool. But for me, I'm backing Duke.

East Region

Sticking in Duke's region, I don't see a lot of upsets. St. John's is criminally underseeded, and they should have no trouble making the Sweet 16, where they'll lose to Duke. 8/9 games are key in large bracket pools, and I'm taking Ohio State in this one.

There are two double-digit seeds I have my eye on, No. 11 South Florida and No. 13 Cal Baptist. No. 4 Kansas has struggled at times, but they drew probably the worst No. 13 seed, so they will advance. As for South Florida, it will come down to whether Louisville's Mikel Brown Jr. plays. If he does, then Louisville will win. If he doesn't, South Florida will win, so keep an eye on his status.

And because winning a large bracket pool requires at least one major risk, I'll go with No. 7 UCLA getting past No. 2 UConn, then falling to No. 3 Michigan State, setting up a Duke vs. Michigan State Elite Eight game.

South Region

This one is the easiest region for me. Florida and Houston will both cruise to the Elite Eight, where I have Houston advancing to the Final Four.

In the first round, No. 9 Iowa will beat No. 8 Clemson, No. 11 VCU will upset No. 6 North Carolina, and No. 10 Texas A&M will defeat No. 7 Saint Mary's. The VCU win will be particularly helpful for picking up an extra point in a large pool, as most of your competition will go with the Blue Blood in what really is more of a toss-up than many realize.

One last bit of advice: Take No. 5 Vanderbilt to upset No. 4 Nebraska to get to the Sweet 16.

West Region

Arizona should have no problem rolling through this region, though the SEC Tournament champion, No. 4 Arkansas, poses a bit of a threat in the Sweet 16. While a lot of people are going to take No. 2 Purdue, fresh off their Big Ten Tournament title, I'm taking No. 3 Gonzaga to advance to the Elite Eight.

To win a large pool, you need to find those few double-digit seeds that are going to win, and picking No. 12 High Point is simply the safest pick for any team seeded 12 or higher.

When it comes to the 6/11, 7/10, 8/9, think about who those in your pool are going to pick. Are you in a Villanova-faithful pool, or is a lot of your competition from Missouri? Because I feel like all three of these games are toss-ups, I'd try to pick against what others in your pool are. If you have no way of gaining an advantage, I'd take No. 9 Utah State, No. 7 Miami, and the winner of Texas and NC State to advance one round.

Midwest Region

So far, I've picked all 1 and 2 seeds to advance to the Final Four, but that changes here. While last year, those who generally play it safe were rewarded when all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four, at least one team seeded No. 4 or worse has made it to the Final Four in 14 of the last 15 seasons. Picking that team correctly will really help you in a large pool.

While No. 1 Michigan has been great this season, the Wolverines struggled throughout the entire Big Ten Tournament. While they'll get past their first matchup, then easily knock off No. 8 Georgia, I have them losing to No. 4 Alabama in the Sweet 16. Alabama will advance to face Michigan by beating a 13 seed and a 12 seed, after Akron knocks off Texas Tech.

In the bottom half of the region, I expect No. 2 Iowa State to dispatch of No. 3 Virginia in a close game, but it will be the Crimson Tide and head coach Nate Oats who put together another excellent NCAA Tournament run.

Now, you have your "risky" Final Four pick, and you still have Duke and Arizona, the two favorites, battling in the national championship. That's how you win a large bracket pool.

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.