In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each ACC college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each ACC college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicate a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
2022 win totals final standings:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%
System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%
Returning starters: 7 offense, 8 defense
Clemson's offense showed signs of life last season - improving from No. 100 to No. 30 in YPG - but it wasn't enough to save OC Brandon Streeter's job or buy disappointing QB D.J. Uiagalelei another year. Sick of watching his attack languish the last two years, a period, not coincidentally, where his team hasn't qualified for the CFP, HC Dabo Swinney brought in TCU title-game-qualifying-offensive architect Garrett Riley. Riley made that run with Max Duggan, who is arguably less gifted in the pocket than Uiagalelei. Riley will now oversee the development of super sophomore QB Cade Klubnik. The hope is that he'll return Clemson's offense to an approximation of the Deshaun Watson/Trevor Lawrence offenses that won natties. Klubnik has weapons between RB Will Shipley, WRs Beaux Collins, and Antonio Williams, and TE Jake Briningstool. The interior iOL is feisty. Will the young OTs live up to their potential?
Clemson's defensive strength is up the middle, starting with a pair of monster DTs, Duke Orhorhoro and Tyler Davis. The LB duo of Jeremiah Trotter and Barrett Carter combined for 161 tackles, 13 sacks, 24 TFL, and 13 pass breakups last year. Clemson's secondary was workmanlike last year. This season, just as Clemson is relying on an offensive passing leap forward to get back to the CFP, the Tigers' defense could use a similar jump in its pass-rush and ball-production numbers. The emergence of a sack artist on the EDGE would help, and a step forward from the secondary would make this defense nasty again.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 10.4
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Over
My system favors Clemson in all 12 games by more than 3.5 points and in 10-of-12 by more than eight points. The past two years have imbued some trepidation in the market. But swapping out Streeter and Uiagalelei for Riley and Klubnik is going to pay big dividends for Swinney. We see Clemson returning to its old Clemson ways this fall.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | Duke | -11.1 | 0.85 | Away |
| 2 | Charleston Southern | -47.3 | 1.00 | Home |
| 3 | Florida Atlantic | -27.4 | 1.00 | Home |
| 4 | Florida St. | -3.4 | 0.59 | Home |
| 5 | Syracuse | -15.0 | 0.93 | Away |
| 6 | Wake Forest | -22.5 | 1.00 | Home |
| 8 | Miami (FL) | -8.4 | 0.79 | Away |
| 9 | North Carolina St. | -11.2 | 0.85 | Away |
| 10 | Notre Dame | -4.7 | 0.66 | Home |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | -29.5 | 1.00 | Home |
| 12 | North Carolina | -10.8 | 0.84 | Home |
| 13 | South Carolina | -9.8 | 0.81 | Away |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 9 defense
Hand to the sky, I'll take some accountability. Prior to last season, I had several private conversations where I mused that FSU should pull the plug on HC Mike Norvell and hire Jackson State HC Deion Sanders. Sanders, Tallahassee's favorite son, would then bring with him his son, QB Shadeur, plus five-star CB Travis Hunter. This was when FSU was coming off a 5-7 campaign. I was wrong. FSU roared back with a 10-3 season in 2022, and the roster is even better this fall. FSU had only 10 signings in the portal, but it was a quality-over-quality approach - eight were listed as four-stars by 247, and the haul ranked No. 6 overall.
The offense will be flammable. QB Jordan Travis is a legit NFL prospect with a dynamic dual-threat game. RB Trey Benson is so good he chased an RB I really like - Treshaun Ward - across the country to Kansas State, the WR/TE groups are loaded, and the OL returns over 200 career starts, which is ludicrous. The defense loses veteran difference-maker S Jammie Robinson but incredibly returns just about everyone else. In a stunning turn, Norvell was able to convince potential Round 1 NFL Draft pick EDGE Jared Verse to return to school. Florida State had one of the nation's nastiest pass defenses last season and likely will again. Robinson's loss was somewhat softened by the addition of all-ACC CB Fentrell Cypress from UVA.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 10.2
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Over
I love this FSU roster. The starting lineup is loaded, and it's tailored to exactly what Norvell has historically wanted to do on both sides of the ball - that sets a ceiling of a CFP berth. The floor of this team is also extremely high because Norvell's slick work both in the portal and also in convincing NFL prospects to return to campus has hulked up his second unit, protecting the team from injuries at several positions. We see the Noles as a CFP contender. We're going over.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | LSU | 2.7 | 0.45 | Home |
| 2 | Southern Miss | -29.7 | 1.00 | Home |
| 3 | Boston College | -21.9 | 1.00 | Away |
| 4 | Clemson | 3.4 | 0.41 | Away |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | -28.5 | 1.00 | Home |
| 7 | Syracuse | -19.7 | 1.00 | Home |
| 8 | Duke | -16.4 | 0.95 | Home |
| 9 | Wake Forest | -16.1 | 0.95 | Away |
| 10 | Pittsburgh | -13.0 | 0.89 | Away |
| 11 | Miami (FL) | -12.8 | 0.88 | Home |
| 12 | North Alabama | -46.5 | 1.00 | Home |
| 13 | Florida | -6.8 | 0.72 | Away |
Returning starters: 9 offense, 8 defense
The case for: A national-championship winning HC returns a top-3 overall NFL Draft prospect at QB among nine returning starters on offense. Last season, that offense was top-15 nationally in offensive EPA and offensive pass EPA, as well as top-10 in offensive explosion. The defense, rancid in recent memory, quietly started to show signs of life down the stretch last year. The area of the team that is least experienced - the secondary - actually isn't concerning because the pass defense was by far and away the team's worst area last year... it can't help but be better in 2023. The Tar Heels' talent has spiked under Brown. Aggregate the recruiting data of each FBS roster over the past four cycles, and UNC ranks No. 15 nationally.
The case against: QB Drake Maye just lost the only collegiate play-calling mentor he's ever known, with OC Phil Longo leaving for Wisconsin. New OC Chip Lindsey has a solid track record, but Longo's track record is unimpeachable. Lindsey's scheme varies from Longo's, introducing further variance. What introduces even more variance is that defenses started to have success down the stretch last year by dropping eight into coverage against Maye. Certainly, they'll continue to try until Maye proves he can solve that riddle - will he show up to the 2023 regular season with answers? Maye also has a handful of youngsters and transfers at the skill spots, with zero returning stars - can he make that work? Also... who were we kidding in the paragraph above with our optimistic shading of UNC's defense? It's always a trainwreck.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 9.1
Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
Here's one more data point for the "case for" bucket: UNC's schedule is on the easier end of the Power 5. In OOC play, the Tar Heels get an FCS team and also figure to be more locked in against Appy State after last year's near-upset loss. The schedule includes only four true road games. UNC avoids FSU in ACC play. Because of Maye, UNC has a puncher's chance in any game. Because of the rest of the roster and the change at OC, there's also a big element of variance at play here. And because of that, we're gonna pass.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | South Carolina | -4.3 | 0.65 | Away |
| 2 | Appalachian St. | -20.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| 3 | Minnesota | -6.9 | 0.73 | Home |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | -5.6 | 0.68 | Away |
| 6 | Syracuse | -12.6 | 0.88 | Home |
| 7 | Miami (FL) | -5.7 | 0.69 | Home |
| 8 | Virginia | -21.9 | 1.00 | Home |
| 9 | Georgia Tech | -16.3 | 0.95 | Away |
| 10 | Campbell | -39.4 | 1.00 | Home |
| 11 | Duke | -9.3 | 0.80 | Home |
| 12 | Clemson | 10.8 | 0.16 | Away |
| 13 | North Carolina St. | -3.3 | 0.58 | Away |
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Returning starters: 9 offense, 10 defense
HC Mario Cristobal's first season was a disaster. QB Tyler Van Dyke suffered a shoulder injury. LT Zion Nelson was limited to one game with a knee injury. OC Josh Gattis had no interest in tailoring his scheme to the talent on hand. Last year's defense was marginally improved over the travesty that was 2021 but didn't come close to meeting expectations. This season, Van Dyke and Nelson are healthy, a top-10 portal and top-20 recruiting class were imported, and there will be new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Gattis' firing was justifiable. New OC Shannon Dawson shouldn't have a problem improving upon last year's No. 85 total offense.
Dawson's Air Raid offense is theoretically a good fit for Van Dyke. When he's right, Van Dyke is a see-it, rip-it rhythm thrower with a big arm. Current reports out of Coral Gables say Van Dyke is physically healthy. Dawson's next order of business is making sure Van Dyke is mentally prepared after his confidence eroded last fall. The OL should be much improved, helping matters on that front. New DC Lance Guidry's task, meanwhile, is mostly to get a bunch of new faces to coalesce quickly. He's got returning All-American S Kamren Kinchens, who plays next to former five-star S James Williams. The starting DEs are both good, and both return. But almost everyone around those four guys was imported over the offseason. And they're all being counted on to excel as starters immediately. The talent is absolutely there - Cristobal's top-10 portal class made sure of that. It's now Guidry's job to put the pieces together quickly.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 7.8
Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
Will the Hurricanes bounce back in 2023? Well, my system installs Miami as 14-point-or-more favorites in six-of-12 regular season games and favorites in eight-of-12. Additionally, my system only sees Miami as a double-digit underdog in one game (at Florida State) and over a TD underdog in only one other (home against Clemson). The roster has a double-digit-win ability if everything clicks. The schedule is manageable. The 2023 season comes down to one question and one question only: Did Cristobal, who got a Year 2 mulligan on both coordinator hires, get them right the second time around?
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | Miami (OH) | -22.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Texas A&M | 5.2 | 0.33 | Home |
| 3 | Bethune-Cookman | -36.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| 4 | Temple | -15.4 | 0.93 | Away |
| 6 | Georgia Tech | -18.2 | 0.99 | Home |
| 7 | North Carolina | 5.7 | 0.31 | Away |
| 8 | Clemson | 8.4 | 0.21 | Home |
| 9 | Virginia | -18.5 | 0.99 | Home |
| 10 | North Carolina St. | -0.5 | 0.50 | Away |
| 11 | Florida St. | 12.8 | 0.12 | Away |
| 12 | Louisville | -3.1 | 0.57 | Home |
| 13 | Boston College | -11.7 | 0.86 | Away |
Returning starters: 6 offense, 7 defense
Louisville HC Jeff Brohm returns to reinvigorate his alma mater. Brohm's first Cardinals roster returned only nine starters from last year. So he got to work in his first offseason, signing 247Sports' No. 12 portal class. Among his 25 signings were up to 11 new starters, depending on how August competitions shake out. That group included ex-Cal QB Jack Plummer - originally a Brohm signee at Purdue back in the day - ex-GSU WR Jamari Thrash (a 1k-yard receiver last year), ex-Jackson State WR Kevin Coleman (a former top-5 WR recruit), ex-Purdue OT Eric Miller (another old pal of Brohm's), ex-GSU DT Jeff Clark, ex-Stanford EDGE Stephen Herron and well-traveled ex-Appy and UNC CB Storm Duck.
The past few staff at Louisville preferred dual-threat quarterbacks who gobbled up an enormous market share of the Cardinals' rushing output. Brohm's offenses are closer to a pro style, with a pocket-passing quarterback working with three WR and a TE. It's impressive how quickly Brohm remade the roster in his image. This Louisville offense looks and feels like his good Purdue offenses did. Defensively, Louisville's biggest losses were edge-rushers Yasir Abdullah and YaYa Diaby from a defense that led the FBS with 50 sacks last year.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 8.6
Las Vegas Win Total: 8
Thor's Bet: Over
Don't put a big Year 1 past Brohm. In past Year 1's, he went 8-5 at WKU (2014) and 7-6 at Purdue (2017). That 2017 Purdue team hadn't won more than three games since 2012, by the way. Brohm doesn't believe in the "Year 0 Reset." And he probably won't be susceptible to that here anyway, as Louisville not only has a roster he can work with but it has the good fortune of avoiding Clemson, North Carolina, and Miami in the ACC schedule. That's not all, folks - the Cardinals only play three true road games in the regular season. We think Brohm starts quickly and goes over this 8 number.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | Georgia Tech | -15.1 | 0.93 | Away |
| 2 | Murray St. | -35.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| 3 | Indiana | -16.7 | 0.96 | Away |
| 4 | Boston College | -15.6 | 0.94 | Home |
| 5 | North Carolina St. | 0.3 | 0.50 | Away |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 7.5 | 0.24 | Home |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | -2.1 | 0.53 | Away |
| 9 | Duke | -5.0 | 0.66 | Home |
| 10 | Virginia Tech | -17.0 | 0.97 | Home |
| 11 | Virginia | -17.5 | 0.98 | Home |
| 12 | Miami (FL) | 3.1 | 0.43 | Away |
| 13 | Kentucky | 1.1 | 0.49 | Home |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 5 defense
Well, this is gonna be interesting. Each of the last two years, NC State's defense has allowed less than 20 PPG. Last year's scoring defense ranked No. 11 nationally. But the offense, which averaged 33.1 PPG in 2021, fell to 24.3 PPG last year, in part due to QB injuries. DC Tony Gibson and his 3-3-5 scheme are back, ensuring that side of the ball is in good hands. It was the offense that needed tending to. So HC Dave Doeren did something really interesting over the offseason: He reunited QB Brennan Armstrong and OC Robert Anae.
Armstrong was awesome in 2021 in Anae's system at Virginia. But Anae left for Syracuse after the season. The Orange's offensive personnel didn't really fit Anae's bang-bang-bang short-passing offense, and it struggled with injuries besides. Meanwhile, without Anae, Armstrong's game fell off a cliff. Doeren is banking that bringing them back together in Raleigh will turn the clock back to 2021 - if he's right, this team could be dangerous. NC State's WR corps is better than is perceived, especially after signing WR Bradley Rozner recently in the portal - Armstrong loves big WR like Rozner. The defense is likely to take a small step back with only five starters back, but Gibson's track record builds in a pretty high floor. The hope is that an offensive surge offsets the defensive regression - and perhaps ends up going further than that.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 7.2
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Over
NC State's non-con slate features a home game against Notre Dame but also an FCS team and two G5s. It's a manageable ACC slate, mostly because of the distribution of home/away games. NC State plays only five road games this fall - my system installs the Wolf Pack as favorites in four of them, and under a FG 'dog in the other (Duke). If the Armstrong/Anae reunion works out, even to some reasonable percentage of its 2021 incarnation, the Pack, even when factoring in some defensive regression, is going to exceed expectations in 2023.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | UConn | -16.1 | 0.95 | Away |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 9.4 | 0.19 | Home |
| 3 | VMI | -33.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| 4 | Virginia | -10.4 | 0.83 | Away |
| 5 | Louisville | -0.3 | 0.50 | Home |
| 6 | Marshall | -12.2 | 0.87 | Home |
| 7 | Duke | 3.0 | 0.43 | Away |
| 9 | Clemson | 11.2 | 0.15 | Home |
| 10 | Miami (FL) | 0.5 | 0.50 | Home |
| 11 | Wake Forest | -2.5 | 0.54 | Away |
| 12 | Virginia Tech | -9.8 | 0.81 | Away |
| 13 | North Carolina | 3.3 | 0.42 | Home |
Returning starters: 10 offense, 8 defense
HC Mike Elko didn't need long to turn this program around, improving the Blue Devils from 3-9 to 9-4 in Year 1. So many things went right that we don't have near the space to document the full list. Elko finishing No. 9 in AP Coach of the Year voting was irrefutable proof that the AP needs to clean out its voting bloc with folks who watch the games on Saturdays. Elko's 2022 work in short: The offense improved by exactly 10 PPG, while the defense slashed nearly 18 PPG allowed off its ledger. In one offseason, he improved a team by four TD per game - that's absurd.
The offensive breakthrough coincided with the emergence of QB Riley Leonard, a 6-foot-4 dual-threat who is now a legitimate NFL prospect. LT Graham Barton was a top-5 overall PFF-graded player in the conference and a 1st-team All-ACC honoree. Duke returns its top-6 rushers, its top-10 receivers, and 122 career starts on the OL. The defense loses its top two tacklers in LB Shaka Heyward and S Darus Joiner but returns basically everybody else. Elko is at least one year ahead of schedule in his rebuild, and he's got the gang coming back to prove the concept.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.7
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
We have, here, a classic example of how schedule strength can conspire against a team's growth (or how a lack of it can facilitate it). Last year, Duke played Phil Steele's No. 96 SOS. This fall, they're projected to play Steele's No. 22 SOS. So even though Duke rose from No. 111 before last season in my power rankings to No. 53 by the end of it, and even though those power rankings see the 2023 Blue Devils as objectively superior to last year's team - pegging the Blue Devils preseason No. 43 - it also projects the Blue Devils to regress from last year's 9-4 finish to the 6-6 or 7-5 range. That change in the record has nothing to do with Elko or his roster and everything to do with scheduling circumstances, which was in Duke's favor in 2022 and will not be in 2023. With all that baked in, my system's projected win total fell almost smack-dab on Las Vegas, making this an easy pass.
Returning starters: 7 offense, 5 defense
One year after losing QB Kenny Pickett, the Panthers took an even bigger hit in the NFL Draft, including R1 DT Calijah Kancey, three other defensive starters, speedster RB Israel Abanikanda, and standout OT Carter Warren. The Panthers brought in Phil Jurkovec to replace Kedon Slovis. Now Jurkovec, a local kid from a Pittsburgh suburb, must stay healthy. That's far from a sure thing. Jurkovec missed time with injury over each of the last three seasons at Boston College, including significant time in the last two campaigns. Ibanikanda's loss hurts, though RB Rodney Hammond Jr. flashed starter ability last fall. Pitt could use the emergence of a true WR1 - that burden is on Konata Mumpfield, a separation machine who was inconsistent in 2022.
Narduzzi has done a great job building up his lines on both sides of the line of scrimmage. He's going to get put to the test this year, with the OL out of Warren and the DL losing the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Without Kancey, the defense probably isn't finishing No. 2 in the nation in sacks per game again. In sum, the Panthers lost six good-to-great starters from last year's defense. The DL and S spots are question marks. Pitt will be strong at LB and CB, the two spots where experienced difference-makers return.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.2
Las Vegas Win Total: 7
Thor's Bet: Under
Based on HC Pat Narduzzi's track record, this is a low total. In eight years at Pitt, he's had only one losing season. Outside of that 2017 season, when Pitt went 5-7, Narduzzi has only finished under this total one other time. In 2020, the COVID season, Pitt went 6-5 playing an abbreviated 11-game schedule. Pitt also has an advantageous schedule to work with. The non-con is an FCS team and two of my lowest-rated P5 teams (Cincy and West Virginia). And in ACC play, Pitt avoids Clemson and Miami while getting FSU at home. Still, I have major questions about Jurkovec's ability to stay healthy and Pitt's ability to keep it rolling on defense with so many holes to plug along the defensive front, the area this defense is usually led by. If the number is 7, I must go under.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | Wofford | -30.9 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Cincinnati | -6.6 | 0.71 | Home |
| 3 | West Virginia | -1.4 | 0.51 | Away |
| 4 | North Carolina | 5.6 | 0.32 | Home |
| 5 | Virginia Tech | -8.4 | 0.79 | Away |
| 7 | Louisville | 2.1 | 0.47 | Home |
| 8 | Wake Forest | -1.1 | 0.51 | Away |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 16.5 | 0.04 | Away |
| 10 | Florida St. | 13.0 | 0.11 | Home |
| 11 | Syracuse | -2.1 | 0.53 | Away |
| 12 | Boston College | -11.4 | 0.86 | Home |
| 13 | Duke | 4.4 | 0.35 | Away |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense
HC Dino Babers, sitting on an inferno of a hot seat and needing to reach a bowl to save his job, got a reprieve by winning seven games and reaching the postseason following three-straight losing campaigns in 2022. Now, he'll have to repeat the trick without star speedster RB Sean Tucker. Tucker's heir apparent, RB LeQuint Allen, was at the center of a drama-filled offseason. Allen was initially suspended for the 2023 season after being charged with third-degree assault for punching a Syracuse student at a party. Allen sued for his reinstatement, claiming he had come to the defense of teammates and had himself been punched multiple times by the accuser prior to returning fire. The university ultimately reinstated Allen, lifting his suspension, a coup for the team, certainly.
OC Robert Anae left after one year, and Babers replaced him with one of Anae's proteges, Jason Beck. Anae was able to coax improvement out of accuracy-averse QB Garrett Shrader via the sheer volume of freebie completions. It also helps to have one of the nation's biggest matchup problems in TE Oronde Gadsden. On the other side of the ball, you had the opposite sort of thing, with the hole created by DC Tony White's defection for Nebraska plugged by the guy who taught White the 3-3-5, coaching godfather Rocky Long. Long has a very active LB corps to work with. The defensive front, however, appears thin, and a secondary that has sent multiple players to the NFL the past few years have questions as it breaks in a pair of new starting CBs.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 7.0
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
In a vacuum, I actually think I'm lower on this Syracuse team than most, ranking it outside the top 50 in my power rankings. But Babers, who was saved by last year's bowl berth, might get a second-consecutive stay-of-execution - this one courtesy of the scheduling gods. The OOC is a gift, with three cupcakes along with a road-trip coinflip at Purdue. In ACC play, Syracuse is scheduled to play four-of-the-five teams I power rank lower than them in the ACC while avoiding the heart of the ACC's upper-middle-class like Miami (FL), Louisville, North Carolina State, and Duke. Even for the biggest Syracuse doubters, I'd advise against fading the 6.5 number due to the breezy schedule. Still, I'm not able to get to the window on the over. Babers is hanging on here by his fingernails, he doesn't have a great roster, and the slightest breeze could swing this thing the other way on him.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | Colgate | -29.5 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Western Michigan | -25.4 | 1.00 | Home |
| 3 | Purdue | -0.6 | 0.50 | Away |
| 4 | Army | -14.6 | 0.92 | Home |
| 5 | Clemson | 15.0 | 0.07 | Home |
| 6 | North Carolina | 12.6 | 0.12 | Away |
| 7 | Florida St. | 19.7 | 0.00 | Away |
| 9 | Virginia Tech | -6.3 | 0.70 | Away |
| 10 | Boston College | -10.0 | 0.82 | Home |
| 11 | Pittsburgh | 2.1 | 0.47 | Home |
| 12 | Georgia Tech | -6.7 | 0.72 | Away |
| 13 | Wake Forest | -4.6 | 0.66 | Home |
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Returning starters: 5 offense, 6 defense
In a sport - nay, a world - full of mediocre minds and copy-cats, HC Dave Clawson and OC Warren Ruggiero are standalone innovators. The Slow Mesh offense, a wild derivation of the RPO that basically slows it to 0.5x speed, was Ruggiero's invention. He's the mad scientist. Clawson was the guy crazy enough to bet his head-coaching career on it. And even though these two guys have proved the concept, over and over again, with inferior talent, they still stand so far apart schematically from the rest of their coaching brethren that a blueblood doesn't dare hand them the keys to a vaster kingdom.
So it's back for another year, attempting to overcome insurmountable odds at Wake Forest. This time without QB Sam Hartman - who already sits top-20 all-time in the FBS in passing yardage - and his favorite toy WR AT Perry. At a normal school, following Hartman's transfer to Notre Dame, you'd go to the portal and sell a transfer on the opportunity of spending a year in a system that reliably churns out 4k-passing yard seasons. Not here. Clawson and Ruggiero strongly believe that the precision timing required by their system can only be acquired through years of repetition. So these two outlaws have chosen - of their own volition - to go with sub-6-foot, sub-200-pound holdover QB Mitch Griffis to replace Hartman. They sang Griffis' praises in the spring - we'll soon find out if they're right. My question, beyond that, is whether both lines - which return only three starters combined - will be ACC-caliber.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 5.7
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Under
My system installs Wake Forest as double-digit favs (or close to it) in each of their first four games. It also pegs the Deacs as a 4.4-point fav in Game 6 against Virginia Tech. The soft opening slate is a boon to new faces like Griffis. The schedule outside of those five games, though, is daunting. Clawson and Ruggiero have made a habit of proving the doubters wrong. But with so many roster questions, I'm going to fade a number that requires a 7-5 season to go over with my system saying Wake is going to fail to reach six wins.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | Elon | -27.8 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Vanderbilt | -9.8 | 0.81 | Home |
| 3 | Old Dominion | -13.1 | 0.89 | Away |
| 4 | Georgia Tech | -9.9 | 0.82 | Home |
| 6 | Clemson | 22.5 | 0.00 | Away |
| 7 | Virginia Tech | -4.4 | 0.65 | Away |
| 8 | Pittsburgh | 1.1 | 0.49 | Home |
| 9 | Florida St. | 16.1 | 0.05 | Home |
| 10 | Duke | 8.4 | 0.21 | Away |
| 11 | North Carolina St. | 2.5 | 0.46 | Home |
| 12 | Notre Dame | 20.5 | 0.00 | Away |
| 13 | Syracuse | 4.6 | 0.34 | Away |
Returning starters: 9 offense, 6 defense
Another QB Phil Jurkovec injury, this time combined with his entire line getting wiped out by the Injury Gods, along with a total defensive implosion, caused the floor to fall out last season en route to an ugly 3-9 finish. Gone is superstar WR Zay Flowers, along with Jurkovec (to Pitt via the portal). After this coming season, 2022 will either be looked back on as a blip for HC Jeff Haffley or as the beginning of the end. Due to Jurkovec's health last fall, QB Emmett Moorhead got a headstart on his tenure, attempting nearly 200 passes. In a comparable snap share to Jurkovec, Moorhead was around as good. You be the judge if that's damning by faint praise.
Boston College did well to grab UCF WR Ryan O'Keefe in the portal to try to replace some percentage of WR Zay Flowers' outgoing production. O'Keefe is a solidly above-average P5-quality starter. Last year's offense was truly sunk by that devastating rash of injuries to the OL, along with Jurkovec's own health woes. This year, all five starters are back along the OL, along with two starting-caliber transfers imported via the portal. Between what BC's OL looked like last regular season and what it'll have this coming year, it should be the country's most improved unit. Defensively, there's returning experience in the front seven. But BC is going to have to navigate a mostly new-look secondary.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 5.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
Boston College's offensive line situation last year was a hand-of-God phenomenon. Between that and Jurkovec's injury, offensive ineptitude was guaranteed, Flowers or no Flowers. This year's group will be better. Boston College built themselves in some 2023 floor with an OOC slate that includes four cupcakes (though the roadie at Army could be tricky). Between those four OOC games, the two ACC Virginia schools, and Georgia Tech, there are seven games here that are beyond winnable. But with variance in play, we're right in line with where Vegas is, so we're going to pass.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | Northern Illinois | -9.2 | 0.80 | Home |
| 2 | Holy Cross | -22.0 | 1.00 | Home |
| 3 | Florida St. | 21.9 | 0.00 | Home |
| 4 | Louisville | 15.6 | 0.06 | Away |
| 5 | Virginia | -4.4 | 0.65 | Home |
| 6 | Army | -2.5 | 0.54 | Away |
| 8 | Georgia Tech | 0.7 | 0.50 | Away |
| 9 | UConn | -9.4 | 0.81 | Home |
| 10 | Syracuse | 10.0 | 0.18 | Away |
| 11 | Virginia Tech | -4.0 | 0.64 | Home |
| 12 | Pittsburgh | 11.4 | 0.14 | Away |
| 13 | Miami (FL) | 11.7 | 0.14 | Home |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense
HC Brent Pry's first year in Blacksburg was a 3-8 mess. The offense was utterly unwatchable (No. 119 YPG). Pry, the former DC at Penn State had better luck defensively, but his first unit on that side was mediocre nationally (No 55 YPG). It's no guarantee that Pry will reach the start of Year 3 if Tech's offense doesn't improve significantly. His No. 35 portal class included remaking the WR corps with projected starters WRs Jaylin Lane and Ali Jennings. That was slick work. I was less impressed with his QB acquisition, ex-Baylor QB Kyron Drones. This was an important scholarship delineation since QB Grant Wells' defective play last year made fielding a competent offense impractical.
Drones is a former four-star recruit with a projectable frame and dual-threat game. But though Baylor desperately wanted to replace starter Blake Shapen, Drones never had a chance to usurp him. In fact, Baylor may have been grateful for Drones' defection, as it opened up a scholarship to sign Sawyer Robertson. It is far from guaranteed that Drones is better than Wells. So what we might have here is another year of rancid QB play and a mediocre collection of RBs platooning behind a poor OL. I do think the defense could challenge to move into the top 40 if it can improve the pass rush. But it's not going to matter much if the offense can't move the ball again.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 3.9
Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
Thor's Bet: Under
I get that Pry envisions himself as a sort of Bud-Foster-if-Bud-Foster-had-gotten-an-HC-gig-in-his-early-50s. Pry was a former GA under Foster. And while I won't quibble too much with VT's defensive performance in 2022, the offensive showing was legitimately troubling. That should have led to an all-hands-on-deck offseason portal approach to turn around that unit. We sort of got that with the WR corps. But Pry has left the QB and OL positions susceptible to potentially being awful again - if they are, his job security is going to evaporate right in front of his eyes this fall. He'd better be right about Drones. And, if he's not, Wells better show up as a completely different QB. Since betting on either of those outcomes would be a fool's errand, I'm going under.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | Old Dominion | -10.4 | 0.83 | Home |
| 2 | Purdue | 4.1 | 0.36 | Home |
| 3 | Rutgers | 2.4 | 0.46 | Away |
| 4 | Marshall | 5.3 | 0.33 | Away |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 8.4 | 0.21 | Home |
| 6 | Florida St. | 28.5 | 0.00 | Away |
| 7 | Wake Forest | 4.4 | 0.35 | Home |
| 9 | Syracuse | 6.3 | 0.30 | Home |
| 10 | Louisville | 17.0 | 0.03 | Away |
| 11 | Boston College | 4.0 | 0.36 | Away |
| 12 | North Carolina St. | 9.8 | 0.19 | Home |
| 13 | Virginia | 1.9 | 0.48 | Away |
Returning starters: 5 offense, 7 defense
Georgia Tech doggedly pursued Tulane HC Willie Fritz in December. It pressed Fritz for an answer on its HC offer before the AAC title game. Fritz balked. Then he walked. Left on the altar, Georgia Tech didn't necessarily regroup. It simply offered the job to the guy it hoped to hire Fritz to replace interim HC Brent Key. Key, to be fair, did lead Georgia Tech to a solid 4-4 finish. But to quote Ken Kendrick on the Bill Stewart hire at West Virginia back in the day, it felt like the Jackets "hired the painter to build the next house."
Key's first portal class was passable, ranking No. 40, but he needed a serious talent infusion and didn't get it. The QB decision was bizarre, bringing in Texas A&M's Haynes King, who had a 10/10 TD/INT rate over three seasons. This was an offense that finished No. 124 in PPG last season and a portal that had a slew of quality starting-caliber options. The RB and WR rooms both fail to inspire confidence. The OL, at least, has four returners with starting experience. The defense was better than the offense last year, and it does return seven starters, but star DE Keion White and both starting LB depart. GT needs to hope that an experienced secondary carries the unit and that an inexperienced LB corps comes along quickly.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 3.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
Thor's Bet: Under
Georgia Tech's roster appears to be outmanned. Its head coach was, at best, its backup option. And now it's going to play Phil Steele's No. 26 SOS. I don't like the Jackets' odds of going over this number, which appears to have been inflated due to last season's late-season 4-4 "surge" under Key, a fluke courtesy of all four wins coming by five points or less.
Returning starters: 5 offense, 8 defense
It's unclear whether Tony Elliott is HC material. It's equally unclear whether he's a good offensive mind. His reputation was made during a six-year run as play-caller at Clemson that coincided with DeShaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence's careers. Elliot didn't recruit either of them. Last year, Virginia, coming off its best-passing season in school history, finished No. 125 in PPG. The OL was terrible, and QB Brennan Armstrong, one year off that prolific campaign, looked lost. The OL only returns 17 career starts and may well be a disaster again. In the backfield, the Hoos are praying that FCS standout QB Tony Muskett is a ready-made ACC star. If he's not, this team may not have a fighting chance.
Last year's defense quietly slashed more than a touchdown per game off its PPG ledger. In part, that was due to the offense toggling the tempo significantly back. But the unit was the undisputed strength of the team. Unfortunately, it lost three All-ACC standouts in LB Nick Jackson, CB Anthony Jackson, and CB Fentrell Cypress. The good news is that eight starters do return. Former Air Force DC John Rudzinski did strong work here last fall and may need to do so again to keep games from getting away from Virginia early.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 3.3
Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
This roster stinks. I could see the defense being solid again, despite losing three of its best players, because most of the core group is back and because I trust the coordinator. But treading water from last year's standard ain't gonna be good enough. Because unless QB Tony Muskett is an out-of-nowhere revelation, and unless a competent offensive line appears out of nowhere, this offense looks like it's gonna stink again. Elliott's presence isn't, unfortunately, something that assuages my concern in that regard - it's something that accelerates it. But lookie here. The market hates this Virginia team basically exactly as much as I do. So we're gonna pass.
| Week | Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| 1 | Tennessee | 22.8 | 0.00 | Away |
| 2 | James Madison | -0.4 | 0.50 | Home |
| 3 | Maryland | 16.3 | 0.05 | Away |
| 4 | North Carolina St. | 10.4 | 0.17 | Home |
| 5 | Boston College | 4.4 | 0.35 | Away |
| 6 | William & Mary | -20.0 | 1.00 | Home |
| 8 | North Carolina | 21.9 | 0.00 | Away |
| 9 | Miami (FL) | 18.5 | 0.01 | Away |
| 10 | Georgia Tech | -2.1 | 0.53 | Home |
| 11 | Louisville | 17.5 | 0.02 | Away |
| 12 | Duke | 10.2 | 0.18 | Home |
| 13 | Virginia Tech | -1.9 | 0.52 | Home |
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
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