Here's a look at College Football Week 3 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
2023: 15-11 ATS (57.7%)
2014-2022: 815-704-21 ATS (53.6%)
Here's a look at College Football Week 3 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
2023: 15-11 ATS (57.7%)
2014-2022: 815-704-21 ATS (53.6%)
Note: In the table below, ATL ("Adjusted Thor Line") is my system's projected spread, and ATT ("Adjusted Thor Total") is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective - a negative number indicates the home team is favored. My bets below were all locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week. To get my bets the second I make them, download the BettingPros app, follow me at BettingPros.com/thor, and turn on notifications.
| Away | Home | Vegas Spread | Proj Spread | Vegas Total | Proj Total | Day |
| Navy | Memphis | -14.5 | -22.1 | 47.5 | 48.8 | Thursday |
| Army | UTSA | -9.5 | -10.6 | 45.0 | 55.1 | Friday |
| Virginia | Maryland | -14.5 | -19.6 | 49.5 | 43.4 | Friday |
| Utah St. | Air Force | -9.5 | -10.2 | 44.5 | 45.8 | Friday |
| Iowa St. | Ohio | 2.5 | 8.8 | 44.5 | 40.8 | Saturday |
| Penn St. | Illinois | 14.5 | 17.2 | 48.5 | 46.2 | Saturday |
| Kansas St. | Missouri | 4.5 | 7.2 | 49.0 | 45.4 | Saturday |
| Florida St. | Boston College | 25.5 | 30.6 | 49.5 | 55.0 | Saturday |
| Louisville | Indiana | 10 | 10.2 | 52.0 | 46.9 | Saturday |
| LSU | Mississippi St. | 9.5 | 7.2 | 53.0 | 58.7 | Saturday |
| Liberty | Buffalo | 3.5 | 6.4 | 55.0 | 52.1 | Saturday |
| Wake Forest | Old Dominion | 14 | 14.4 | 61.5 | 58.8 | Saturday |
| Georgia Southern | Wisconsin | -19.5 | -17.5 | 64.5 | 58.8 | Saturday |
| UMass | Eastern Michigan | -9 | -8.8 | 52.5 | 48.4 | Saturday |
| Central Michigan | Notre Dame | -34.5 | -39.9 | 54.5 | 52.1 | Saturday |
| Virginia Tech | Rutgers | -6.5 | -6.3 | 39.5 | 40.3 | Saturday |
| Florida International | Connecticut | -8.5 | -4.6 | 42.5 | 42.5 | Saturday |
| Western Michigan | Iowa | -28.5 | -30.5 | 43.0 | 32.0 | Saturday |
| Northwestern | Duke | -18.5 | -17.5 | 48.5 | 46.4 | Saturday |
| San Diego St. | Oregon St. | -24.5 | -26.6 | 48.5 | 38.7 | Saturday |
| East Carolina | Appalachian St. | -9.5 | -10.1 | 49.5 | 61.7 | Saturday |
| Minnesota | North Carolina | -7.5 | -7.8 | 50.0 | 51.3 | Saturday |
| South Carolina | Georgia | -27.5 | -23.7 | 54.5 | 56.8 | Saturday |
| Oklahoma | Tulsa | 27.5 | 28.3 | 60.5 | 65.7 | Saturday |
| Alabama | South Florida | 32 | 34.3 | 61.5 | 69.4 | Saturday |
| Tulane | Southern Miss | 12.5 | 12.4 | 50.5 | 42.0 | Saturday |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Texas A&M | -36.5 | -32.2 | 53.5 | 49.9 | Saturday |
| Western Kentucky | Ohio St. | -28 | -28.9 | 64.0 | 70.1 | Saturday |
| Washington | Michigan St. | 16 | 12.2 | 57.5 | 63.8 | Saturday |
| Georgia St. | Charlotte | 7.5 | 6.0 | 54.5 | 62.5 | Saturday |
| Northern Illinois | Nebraska | -10.5 | -13.2 | 45.5 | 54.5 | Saturday |
| South Alabama | Oklahoma St. | -7 | -10.6 | 47.5 | 53.9 | Saturday |
| Miami (OH) | Cincinnati | -14 | -20.4 | 47.5 | 40.6 | Saturday |
| James Madison | Troy | -2 | -2.5 | 48.5 | 45.8 | Saturday |
| Vanderbilt | UNLV | 4 | 2.1 | 56.5 | 60.5 | Saturday |
| San Jose St. | Toledo | -8.5 | -13.8 | 58.5 | 54.6 | Saturday |
| Tennessee | Florida | 6.5 | 5.1 | 58.5 | 71.1 | Saturday |
| Louisiana | UAB | -1.5 | -1.6 | 59.5 | 43.2 | Saturday |
| North Texas | Louisiana Tech | -4.5 | -5.3 | 64.0 | 71.5 | Saturday |
| Akron | Kentucky | -25.5 | -28.2 | 49.0 | 40.5 | Saturday |
| Pittsburgh | West Virginia | 1 | 2.7 | 50.0 | 65.2 | Saturday |
| BYU | Arkansas | -9.5 | -11.1 | 51.0 | 63.8 | Saturday |
| Bowling Green | Michigan | -40.5 | -43.4 | 53.5 | 57.0 | Saturday |
| Syracuse | Purdue | 2.5 | 6.6 | 58.5 | 57.5 | Saturday |
| Georgia Tech | Ole Miss | -20 | -22.3 | 63.0 | 53.8 | Saturday |
| Wyoming | Texas | -28.5 | -29.8 | 48.5 | 46.7 | Saturday |
| New Mexico St. | New Mexico | -1 | -1.5 | 50.5 | 46.3 | Saturday |
| Florida Atlantic | Clemson | -24.5 | -22.9 | 52.5 | 50.8 | Saturday |
| TCU | Houston | 7.5 | 6.0 | 64.5 | 72.4 | Saturday |
| Hawai’i | Oregon | -37.5 | -39.2 | 67.5 | 62.8 | Saturday |
| Colorado St. | Colorado | -22.5 | -26.6 | 59.0 | 47.6 | Saturday |
| Fresno St. | Arizona St. | 3 | 1.8 | 50.5 | 53.8 | Saturday |
| Kansas | Nevada | 27.5 | 25.8 | 59.5 | 67.0 | Saturday |
| UTEP | Arizona | -17 | -20.3 | 56.0 | 54.8 | Saturday |
Below, I cite the numbers I locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week - you can follow me through this link and get my bets as I make them by turning on notifications - as well as the number I would play each pick down to.
ATL: Maryland -19.6
We expected Virginia to be bad, and they haven't disappointed, starting 0-2 while ranking No. 127 in PPG allowed. Last week, the Cavs out-played James Madison but fell 36-35 after allowing two unanswered fourth-quarter touchdowns, the last one in the final minute of the game.
Virginia's run defense has been ghastly, coughing up 5.3 YPC and 227.0 YPG. Exciting young Maryland RB Roman Hemby is in for a big game, here.
While the Terps are assured of lighting up the scoreboard, it's difficult to envision Virginia returning enough fire to stay within this number.
Beyond Virginia's lack of talent on that side of the ball, the Cavs are also going to start QB2 Anthony Colandrea again as QB1 Tony Muskett's rehab from a shoulder injury continues.
The play: Maryland -13.5 (play to -16.5)
ATL: KSU -7.2
Last season, Kansas State whipped Missouri 40-12 in this game. That improved KSU HC Chris Klieman to 3-0 SU in nonconference games against P5 teams while at K-State. KSU won those three games - against Mississippi State, Stanford, and Mizzou - by an average of 17.3 PPG.
Mizzou QB Brady Cook, who struggled in last season's loss to KSU, was sacked six times last week against a Middle Tennessee team that was taken behind a woodshed by Alabama the week before. The Tigers' offensive line is a huge area of concern.
To state the obvious, if Mizzou's pass-pro isn't cleaned up this week - Mizzou HC Drinkwitz said the following about his offensive line after the MTSU game: “I think there’s a good probability there’s gonna be some personnel changes" - Cook is going to be in for a long afternoon.
Cook could also use some help from his coaching staff. Amongst the bizarre decisions from last week's game: Calling zero designed runs in the second half after RB Nathaniel Peat had over 100 yards from scrimmage on nine touches before halftime.
Heading into the season, Kansas State's rebuilt secondary was a question mark. But KSU sophomore CBs Jacob Parish and Will Lee have acquitted themselves well thus far. The pair was stellar in last week's dominant win over Troy, one of the G5's best teams, and each has a PFF grade of 78.5 or higher.
Parish will draw the key matchup in this game against former five-star Missouri WR Luther Burden. Parish has allowed a mere 33 yards on 16 targets so far, allowing six receptions while breaking up three passes.
This is a game that Kansas State took personally last season, and likely will again. Numerous players on KSU's roster grew up in Missouri rooting for the Tigers. Not all of them got scholarship offers from Mizzou. And the Kansas State roster hasn't forgotten the social media trolling Mizzou HC Eli Drinkwitz did to KSU QB Avery Johnson last year after Johnson chose the Wildcats.
Wildcats roll.
The play: KSU -4.5 (play to -6.5)
ATL: PSU -17.2
Let's walk through this one together.
Is Penn State objectively more than two-touchdowns better than Illinois on the road? My system would give a resounding: Yes. After watching every snap of Kansas-Illinois last week, my eye test would agree.
This Illini team is way down from last year's after it lost a historical amount of talent over the offseason. And I've been given no reason, on the other side of things, to back off my statement over the summer that Penn State might be better than Ohio State this fall.
The next question, naturally, becomes: Will Penn State be motivated enough to keep their foot on the gas pedal well into the fourth quarter if that's what's needed to secure this two-TD cover for us?
General long-term data point: HC James Franklin is now 64-49-3 (60.9%) ATS at Penn State after starting this season 2-0 ATS. That's one of the P5's best cover rates over that time.
More specific short-term data point: In the opener against West Virginia, up 31-15 as 21-point favorites, Franklin took matters into his own hands to secure a cover. On PSU's final drive, Franklin went for it on 4th-and-2, and then, instead of kneeling the clock out, elected to try to punch the ball in one last time. Penn State did so, and covered in a 38-15 win that had West Virginia bettors cursing up a storm.
Historically-topical data point: This is the first meeting between Penn State and Illinois since Illinois upset Penn State as 24.5-point underdogs in an NCAA-record 9OT two years ago in Happy Valley. That game was special to HC Bret Bielema - his 100th career win - and also the game the Illini point back to when asked when things turned around for the better under Bielema. Penn State's memories of that afternoon are not as fond.
The "it's personal" data point: On Monday, at his weekly press conference, Bielema said the following about Penn State: "They do a tremendous job in recruiting and they're allowed to do things there at Penn State that allow them to get a lot of skill players in the program."
That comment reached Happy Valley immediately and has drawn a vitriolic response from Penn State's fanbase. And if you don't think James Franklin will have it on his mind on Saturday, you don't know James Franklin.
Franklin, a coach who seems to be actively aware of the point-spread of his games and goes for covers late even when it isn't PC to do so, already would have had revenge on his mind for the 2021 debacle against Illinois. Bielema just ensured that Franklin will take extra glee in running up the score on Saturday if he gets a chance to.
The play: PSU -14 (play to -16.5)
ATL: ISU -8.8
This line is deflated by nearly a full touchdown due to public perception, not reality, as we hit on during the early-week line-lookahead show:
That show drops on the BettingPros podcast feed and BettingPros YouTube channel every Monday morning. Highly recommend it to get the best line value you can each week.
The play: ISU -2.5 (play to -6.5)
ATL: Tulane -6.4 (with Pratt injury)
ATT: 42 (with Pratt injury)
Another tidbit from Sunday's show: I was told last weekend that Tulane QB Michael Pratt is going to be out for multiple weeks with the knee injury that made him an inactive in last week's game against Ole Miss.
But when the books dropped this game, the side and total were both priced as though a healthy Pratt would play.
On Sunday, we pounded the under 53 - which, as of typing, was already down to 49.5. Expect that to tumble at least into the mid-40s if and when it is officially announced that Pratt is out.
Whereas the total drop was predictable, the market as a whole has taken a surprisingly bullish stance on Tulane early in the week. This is the first time all season where the line has moved against me by a point or more from a Sunday bet - it's now Southern Miss +12.5 or +13.0, depending on the book you look at.
I'm happy with my +11 number - I bought another ticket when it got to +13 - and believe Southern Miss has a real shot to spring the outright upset here. Wet your beak on the moneyline before the Pratt news hits the wires.
The picks: Southern Miss +11 (play to +7.5) | Under 53 (play to 45.5)
Washington (-16) at Michigan State
ATL: UW -12.2 (doesn't bake in Mel Tucker drama)
My system's number - UW -12.2 - doesn't take into account the drama currently surrounding the Michigan State program.
Washington's high-octane passing attack was already going to pose a huge problem to Sparty's beleaguered secondary.
But you have to wonder, in lieu of news that Mel Tucker is on his way out following a sexual harassment scandal, whether Michigan State's roster puts up a fight here or not. Sparty's cobbled-together interim staff has exclusively fielded questions about Tucker's indiscretions this week.
My supposition is MSU's roster will be more preoccupied with deciding whether they'll play out the season, or shut it down prior to their fifth appearance to preserve a redshirt as they plot their exits.
The pick: UW -16 (play to -17)
ATL: Nebraska -13.2
I was lower than most on Nebraska heading into the season, citing HC Matt Rhule's historical lack-of-success in Year 1 situations (Rhule went a combined 3-21 in his first seasons at Temple and Baylor).
We were on Colorado last week in part for that reason - and also because the Buffaloes were a rotten matchup for the Cornhuskers, a team that is going to struggle when playing from behind this season due to their shoddy passing attack.
But all that said, this spread takes things too far the other way. I have a Northern Illinois over 5.5-win ticket from this summer. But I haven't loved what I've seen from the Huskies so far this season. They upset Boston College in OT in the opener - but Boston College turned around and only beat FCS Holy Cross by a field goal last week.
On the same day, NIU was upset 14-11 by FCS Southern Illinois. In that game, NIU averaged less than 2.0 YPC, and QB Rocky Lombardi threw three interceptions. Turnovers have long been a bugaboo for Lombardi - he now has a career 32/26 TD/INT rate.
Nebraska, averaging over 200 rushing yards per game despite the winless start, is going to be able to run the ball on NIU. And once the Cornhuskers have a lead, NIU's only recourse will be asking Lombardi to throw them back into the game.
That isn't going to end well against a Nebraska defense that held Colorado to more than 100 yards less than TCU did, and held Minnesota to more than 150 yards less than EMU did.
The pick: Nebraska -10.5 (play to -12.5)
ATL: Syracuse -6.6
There are two reasons the Vegas line is lower than mine: 1) Purdue beat Virginia Tech 24-17 last week in a bizarre game that featured a 5 hours and 27 minutes of weather delays, 2) Syracuse TE Oronde Gadsden II and RT David Wohlabaugh are questionable with injuries suffered last week against Western Michigan.
Gadsden is a matchup problem who posted a 61-969-6 receiving line last season as a big-slot. Following Gadsen's first-quarter injury against WMU, Gadsden sits No. 4 on the team in both receptions and receiving yards this year.
Wohlabaugh, a Kentucky transfer, has only slightly outperformed OT3 Mark Petry in a limited sample. Gadsden is a good player, but he's not worth four points on the spread.
Purdue is a flawed team that is in the first weeks of a coaching-staff turnover. The Boilermakers lost to Fresno State in the opener. Fresno State turned around and snuck by FCS Eastern Washington 34-31.
Syracuse is the better team. And Purdue, coming off a grueling Saturday in which they spent the entire day in Lane Stadium and played on a Slip and Slide field, could have a hangover performance.
Syracuse beat a better Purdue team 32-29 last season. We're happy to lay under a field goal in this spot.
The pick: Syracuse -2.5 (play to -4)
ATL: Colorado -26.6
Why are Colorado's lines still deflated despite the Buffaloes having emerged as a hyper-public team?
Because the sharps in the marketplace didn't adequately power rank them in the preseason, and then compounded the mistake after Week 1 by not adjusting the Buffaloes up enough.
Last week, every time the Colorado-Nebraska line toggled to Colorado -3.5, sharps immediately hit it hard, bringing the line back to Colorado -3. They torched a lot of money on fire, again. Colorado led 13-0 at halftime and won 36-14.
This week's CU line is getting closer to reality - but we're still not all the way there. Against a bad Colorado State team - which is, topically, one of the FBS' worst at defending the pass - my system has a line of Colorado -26.6.
I locked in Colorado -22.5 earlier this week. It's still available market-wide beneath CU -24. That is the number I would play this up to.
The pick: Colorado -22.5 (play to -24)
Iowa-Western Michigan u43.5 | ATT: 32
The play: Under 43.5 (play to 38.5)
Florida International (+10.5) at UConn | ATL: UConn -4.6
The play: FIU +10.5 (play to +7.5)
UL-Monroe (+37) at Texas A&M | ATL: A&M -32.2
The pick: ULM +37 (play to +35)
Toledo (-8) vs. San Jose State | ATL: Toledo -13.8
The pick: Toledo -8 (play to -10.5)
UNLV (+4.5) vs. Vanderbilt | ATL: Vandy -2.1
The pick: UNLV +4.5 (play to +3)
Rutgers (-4.5) vs. Virginia Tech | ATL: Rutgers -6.3
The pick: Rutgers -4.5 (play to -6)
Pittsburgh (-1) at West Virginia | ATL: Pitt -2.7
The pick: Pitt -1 (play to -2.5)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
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