Here's a look at College Football Week 5 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Here's a look at College Football Week 5 spreads and totals, along with my projections. Below, you can find my best bets of the week.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Note: In the table below, ATL ("Adjusted Thor Line") is my system's projected spread, and ATT ("Adjusted Thor Total") is my system's projected total. Spreads are from the home team's perspective - a negative number indicates the home team is favored.
My bets below were all locked into the BettingPros app earlier this week. My record is also tracked in the app. To get my bets the second I make them, download the BettingPros app, follow me at BettingPros.com/thor, and turn on notifications.
| Away | Home | Vegas Spread | Proj Spread | Vegas Total | Proj Total | Day |
| Temple | Tulsa | -3.5 | -5.0 | 54.5 | 57.0 | Thursday |
| Middle Tennessee | Western Kentucky | -5.5 | -8.6 | 60.5 | 64.1 | Thursday |
| Jacksonville St. | Sam Houston | 6.5 | 5.3 | 36.5 | 35.1 | Thursday |
| Louisville | North Carolina St. | 3.5 | 4.2 | 55.5 | 42.9 | Friday |
| Utah | Oregon St. | -3.0 | 1.3 | 45.0 | 48.8 | Friday |
| Louisiana Tech | UTEP | -1.0 | 0.4 | 53.0 | 54.7 | Friday |
| Cincinnati | Brigham Young | -2.5 | -1.3 | 48.5 | 53.6 | Friday |
| South Alabama | James Madison | -3.0 | -4.1 | 51.5 | 55.2 | Saturday |
| Florida | Kentucky | -2.5 | -3.3 | 45.5 | 43.5 | Saturday |
| Utah St. | Connecticut | 5.0 | 6.1 | 51.5 | 52.4 | Saturday |
| Clemson | Syracuse | 7.0 | 3.0 | 53.5 | 56.2 | Saturday |
| Buffalo | Akron | -2.5 | -1.5 | 55.5 | 54.1 | Saturday |
| UAB | Tulane | -21.5 | -20.8 | 57.0 | 49.3 | Saturday |
| Texas A&M | Arkansas | 6.5 | 9.2 | 55.0 | 56.2 | Saturday |
| Penn St. | Northwestern | 26.0 | 26.3 | 45.5 | 48.8 | Saturday |
| Louisiana | Minnesota | -12.5 | -9.8 | 47.5 | 39.7 | Saturday |
| USC | Colorado | 21.5 | 19.4 | 73.5 | 78.9 | Saturday |
| Eastern Michigan | Central Michigan | -7.5 | -5.1 | 48.0 | 54.1 | Saturday |
| Virginia | Boston College | -3.0 | -1.7 | 55.5 | 43.4 | Saturday |
| Miami (OH) | Kent St. | 15.5 | 13.8 | 49.5 | 47.8 | Saturday |
| Arizona St. | California | -12.0 | -14.6 | 49.0 | 45.9 | Saturday |
| Illinois | Purdue | -1.0 | 1.8 | 53.5 | 49.6 | Saturday |
| Old Dominion | Marshall | -14.0 | -15.6 | 46.5 | 34.9 | Saturday |
| Arkansas St. | UMass | -1.5 | -4.6 | 55.0 | 47.8 | Saturday |
| Northern Illinois | Toledo | -13.0 | -17.5 | 50.5 | 60.5 | Saturday |
| Ball St. | Western Michigan | -1.0 | -0.1 | 52.5 | 41.6 | Saturday |
| Houston | Texas Tech | -10.0 | -11.1 | 51.5 | 67.9 | Saturday |
| Michigan | Nebraska | 17.5 | 20.2 | 40.0 | 49.5 | Saturday |
| Indiana | Maryland | -14.0 | -17.5 | 50.0 | 51.6 | Saturday |
| Bowling Green | Georgia Tech | -22.5 | -18.1 | 52.5 | 48.6 | Saturday |
| Kansas | Texas | -17.0 | -19.4 | 64.0 | 65.5 | Saturday |
| Georgia | Auburn | 14.5 | 12.7 | 47.0 | 51.7 | Saturday |
| South Florida | Navy | -4.0 | -1.9 | 55.0 | 51.5 | Saturday |
| Baylor | UCF | -11.5 | -13.1 | 55.0 | 55.7 | Saturday |
| Boise St. | Memphis | -3.5 | -5.3 | 59.5 | 53.7 | Saturday |
| Missouri | Vanderbilt | 13.5 | 14.3 | 56.5 | 56.5 | Saturday |
| New Mexico | Wyoming | -14.5 | -17.5 | 41.5 | 36.2 | Saturday |
| Hawai’i | UNLV | -11.0 | -10.0 | 59.0 | 54.2 | Saturday |
| LSU | Ole Miss | 3.0 | -1.5 | 65.5 | 65.8 | Saturday |
| Oregon | Stanford | 27.0 | 29.2 | 61.0 | 62.7 | Saturday |
| Texas St. | Southern Miss | 7.0 | 3.4 | 60.5 | 46.3 | Saturday |
| Troy | Georgia St. | -1.5 | -2.1 | 51.5 | 47.8 | Saturday |
| Iowa St. | Oklahoma | -20.0 | -22.0 | 48.5 | 44.3 | Saturday |
| East Carolina | Rice | -3.0 | -1.7 | 48.5 | 59.1 | Saturday |
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia Southern | -6.5 | -1.4 | 62.5 | 64.7 | Saturday |
| Notre Dame | Duke | 5.5 | 4.6 | 52.5 | 59.6 | Saturday |
| Michigan St. | Iowa | -11.5 | -12.1 | 36.5 | 39.5 | Saturday |
| Charlotte | SMU | -23.5 | -21.5 | 56.5 | 65.8 | Saturday |
| South Carolina | Tennessee | -12.5 | -10.3 | 63.5 | 71.1 | Saturday |
| San Diego St. | Air Force | -10.5 | -13.3 | 43.5 | 35.0 | Saturday |
| Pittsburgh | Virginia Tech | 2.5 | 5.3 | 41.0 | 45.2 | Saturday |
| Appalachian St. | Louisiana-Monroe | 13.5 | 13.3 | 53.0 | 60.4 | Saturday |
| West Virginia | TCU | -11.0 | -9.8 | 50.5 | 70.7 | Saturday |
| Alabama | Mississippi St. | 14.0 | 14.5 | 46.5 | 56.1 | Saturday |
| Washington | Arizona | 18.0 | 18.1 | 67.5 | 69.0 | Saturday |
| Nevada | Fresno St. | -24.5 | -24.5 | 52.5 | 51.2 | Saturday |
ATL: Louisville -4.2
This is a good matchup for Louisville.
The Cardinals' No. 38 SP+ defense has been solidly above-average in every facet but one this season: passing explosion (No 124). But that's not an area that NC State's quick-hit passing game is equipped to take advantage of.
The Wolfpack rank No. 128 in offensive passing explosion and QB Brennan Armstrong is only averaging 5.3 adjusted air yards per attempt. NC State's offense simply hasn't taken off yet. In large part because of that lack of big-play ability, NC State only ranks No. 70 SP+ offensively.
That attack for long stretches has a tendency to bog down into Armstrong scrambling around to try and manufacture yards with his legs. Outside of Armstrong, NC State doesn't have a running element to speak of, exacerbating the issue.
Louisville's No. 23 SP+ offense, meanwhile, is going to pose problems for NCSU. The Cardinals' attack ranks top-25 in run success rate, rushing explosion, pass success rate, and passing explosion. The run game has been nasty (No. 5 success rate, No. 20 explosion), and the passing attack must be respected deep, opening up space in the short and intermediate sectors.
While NC State's No. 45 SP+ defense has been acceptable in the aggregate, it gets ripped for far too many explosive plays (No. 109 IsoPPP and No. 118 marginal explosiveness). Louisville shouldn't have a problem scoring.
NC State has not yet covered a game this season, with its average ATS performance ranking No. 110 nationally (-7.1 PPG). I expect another ATS loss for the home team on Friday night.
The pick: Louisville -2.5 (play to UL -4)
ATL: Utah -1.3
The Utes are 4-0 despite playing short-handed all season, with SP+'s No. 11 resume rank. It's more than just QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe, whose statuses are an open-ended question every week.
In the opener against Florida, Utah won by double-digits despite being without eight starters. Most of them have not yet returned. But according to the team, there's a possibility of that changing this week.
"We've got about eight or 10 guys that are very close," HC Kyle Whittingham said.
The biggest-name of them, Rising, has been medically cleared to return. Rising nearly did last week against UCLA. But after a week of splitting first-team reps with QB Nate Johnson, Utah decided to try to get by one more week without Rising.
Regardless of all that, getting more than a field goal with Utah in this spot feels generous - the potential of returning contributors is the cherry on top.
The Utes' No. 8 SP+ defense has been nasty all season. Utah's defense ranks No. 3 in success rate - No. 2 against the pass and No. 8 against the run - and is No. 1 in three-and-out percentage.
That defense has been complimented with the SP+ No. 37 offense and No. 44 special teams. Utah's offense runs at a snail's pace - No. 125 adjusted tempo - and methodically moves the ball up the field by chipping away with the run game. Every now and again, Utah has been able to hit an explosive pass as defenses load up.
Oregon State fell to 3-1 by losing 38-35 to Washington State last week. The game wasn't as close as the score. The Beavers finished with a 7% postgame win expectancy.
Oregon State's offense to this point has essentially just been a better version of Utah's: A slow-tempo (No. 88), run-first plan (No. 2 rushing success rate) that occasionally opens up long passes (No. 52 passing explosion).
But Utah has a huge defensive advantage, here. Oregon State's defense ranks No. 35 SP+. The Beavers make it easy for the opponent to stay on schedule, ranking just No. 96 in defensive success rate.
That suggests that Utah - even if Rising is not back - will be able to be able to keep the chains moving... even if it doesn't look pretty. Whereas Oregon State's run-success-dependent offense may be running into a brick wall here, forcing QB DJ Uigalelei to win this thing through the air. We've seen that movie before, it never ends well.
I'm also on the Utah moneyline.
The pick: Utah +3.5 (play to pick 'em)
ATL: BYU -1.3
BYU's offensive footprint has become pretty apparent by this point. The Cougars struggle to run the ball, putting a ton of pressure on journeyman QB Kedon Slovis to take matters into his own hands.
Slovis has been good-but-not-great thus far, ranking No. 44 in PFF passing grade. But when Slovis, who is not blessed with mobility, has been pressured, his play has cratered. He has an 85.6 passing grade in clean pockets against a 53.9 passing grade under pressure.
Slovis never leaves the pocket - BYU is No. 131 in scrambles per dropback - which means he can become a sitting duck when BYU faces teams that can generate pressure. The Cougars rank a rancid No. 120 in havoc rate allowed.
This profiles as a sneaky-bad matchup for Slovis and BYU's offense. Cincinnati's defense, which ranks No. 33 SP+ overall, is No. 24 in havoc rate and No. 24 in sacks per dropback (that ranking jumps to No. 7 in pass-down sack rate - and remember, BYU's attack is pretty straightforward).
If the Bearcats can discombobulate Slovis, BYU will have no other recourse to move the ball. And while there's not much to love about Cincy's No. 77 SP+ offense, it profiles to score more points in this matchup against BYU's No. 57 SP+ defense than vice-versa.
We like Cincy to spring the small upset.
The pick: Cincinnati +3 (play to pick 'em)
ATL: UK -3.3
Though the 3-1 Gators have been a bit better than advertised so far, they're only 1-3 ATS. This is a bad matchup for Florida to try to improve either of those records.
From a tree-top advanced stat view, Florida is very efficient both offensively (No. 22 success rate) and defensively (No. 4). But they don't generate explosive plays on offense (No. 97 marginal explosiveness), and they're susceptible to getting ripped for them on defense (No. 119).
Through Kentucky's 4-0 start (3-1 ATS), the Wildcats have sneakily been one of the country's best in both generating explosive plays on offense (No. 4 marginal explosiveness) and depriving them defensively (No. 7).
Per SP+, in addition to its advantages on both offense and defense, Kentucky also has a pronounced special-teams advantage in this game, a little potential added insurance if the game does indeed end up being decided by one possession.
The pick: UK -3 (play to UK -3.5)
ATL: A&M -9.2
Arkansas has two big tree-top problems heading into this game before we even get into the on-field handicap: Hogs RB Rocket Sanders looks likely to be out again, and the Hogs are one of the most penalized teams in the country.
Arkansas averages nine penalties a game (No. 124) for an average of 78.5 YPG lost (No. 123). In conjunction with the offensive line's struggles (No. 119 in pressures allowed and No. 120 in blown block percentage) and QB KJ Jefferson's propensity to get sacked (No. 112 in sacks per dropback), you can see why Arkansas faces third-and-long situations at a top-10 national percentage.
Arkansas' defense, meanwhile, is a boom-or-bust operation. It ranks No. 59 SP+ overall despite ranking No. 2 in havoc rate. That's because it’s aggression can come back to bite it: The Hogs' defense ranks No. 112 IsoPPP and No. 105 in marginal explosiveness
Arkansas HC Sam Pittman said on Tuesday that while Sanders has returned to practice in a limited capacity - that happened last week - he is still not able to cut. Unless there's a dramatic change with that over the next 48 hours, he's not going to play.
Texas A&M's No. 9 SP+ defense shouldn't have a problem with the KJ Jefferson Show that Arkansas' offense turns into when Rocket is out.
Meanwhile, A&M's No. 25 SP+ offense profiles to light up Arkansas. The Aggies rank No. 28 in IsoPPP and No. 24 in big-play rate. And because A&M ranks a solid No. 41 in havoc rate allowed on offense, they should be able to both deal with and take advantage of Arkansas' hair-on-fire style.
A&M QB Connor Wiegman was announced out for the year on Wednesday. As I discussed with Scott Bogman on our mid-week BettingPros podcast, I do not care for the purposes of this handicap. QB2 Max Johnson is a seasoned veteran with a sterling career 42/7 TD/INT rate, including 7/0 since his transfer from LSU to College Station.
The pick: A&M -6.5 (play to -9.5)
ATL: USC -19.4
USC has the nation's best offense. This year, it also has a top-10 special-teams unit. But while the Trojans' defense has improved statistically (currently No. 41 SP+), that unit has not yet been tested.
This is the first time that USC's defense will play an offense within the SP+ top-75. USC's four opponents to this point have a combined record of 3-14. My one-sentence supposition for the handicap: USC's defense is not good enough to be laying this many points to a good offense on the road in altitude.
Colorado has already played a team that I power-rank above USC (Oregon) and another inside my top-30 (TCU). Colorado's opponents are 9-2 in the 11 games they didn't play the Buffaloes.
Colorado's defense isn't good. But it takes away explosive passes (No. 27 explosiveness, No. 14 20+ yard completion percent) and gets its hands on balls (No. 15 interception percentage, No. 33 percentage of incompletions that were defensed).
Colorado, with a passing offense that ranks No. 30 in success rate and No. 5 in completion percentage, will be able to pass on the Trojans. We think that'll prove enough to stay within this bloated number.
The pick: Colorado +24.5 (play to +21.5)
ATL: Navy -1.9
Navy isn't good enough to be laying this many points to a decent team.
As always, the Mids can't pass. This year, they can't defend it either (No. 126 passing success rate against). The run defense isn't much better (No. 96 success rate, No. 126 explosiveness).
Navy grinds away with a triple-option attack, the viability of which has dropped off a shelf since the NCAA's cut-block ban outside the tackle box. The Mids rank No. 67 in rushing success rate and No. 96 in rushing explosion.
USF is much improved in the first year under HC Alex Golesh. That can be seen in the Bulls' No. 20 ranking in cover PPG.
The defense struggles to prevent explosive passes, but that won't be an issue in this game. USF's run defense - which ranks No. 13 in opportunity rate and No. 42 in stuff rate - has what it takes to slow Navy's only source of offense.
USF's offense is still finding its way, but it has already found an explosive element under Golesh, the former Tennessee OC. The Bulls rank No. 42 IsoPPP, and are No. 48 in run explosion and No. 36 in pass explosion.
USF gave Alabama everything it could handle two weeks ago, and then it turned around and beat a solid Rice team. We think the Bulls improve to 3-2 by upsetting Navy.
The pick: USF +4 (play to +3)
ATL: Ole Miss -1.5
LSU is 3-1. But by any measure, they've been a disappointment. Last week, they barely beat a Rocket Sanders-less Arkansas team 38-35.
The Tigers' offense has been as good as advertised, ranking No. 5 SP+. It's the defense (No. 47) and special teams (No. 93) that have let LSU down. That defense struggles to get off the field (No. 99 success rate) while giving up far too many large gains (No. 118 IsoPPP).
LSU is going to get its points against Mississippi's No. 31 SP+ defense. But the Rebels will make LSU work for it, as they deprive explosive plays at a top-25 clip.
On the other side, there's no chance that LSU is going to slow down Mississippi's offense. The Rebels rank No. 29 in marginal efficiency and No. 11 in marginal explosiveness.
The public is selling the Rebels after last week's loss to Alabama. This is a good buy-low spot in a game in which my system favors Ole Miss.
The pick: Ole Miss +3 (play to pick 'em)
Other bets:
Western Kentucky (-5.5) vs. Middle Tennessee (Thursday)
ATL: WKU -8.6
Coastal Carolina (+6.5) at Georgia Southern
ATL: GSU -1.4
Southern Miss (+7.5) vs. Texas State
ATL: Texas State -3.4
Memphis (-1) vs. Boise State
ATL: Memphis -5.3
Wyoming (-12.5) vs New Mexico
ATL: Wyoming -17.5
Wyoming-New Mexico under 42.5
ATT: 36.2
UMass (-1.5) vs. Arkansas State
ATL: UMass -4.6
San Diego State-Air Force under 43.5
ATT: 35.0
TCU-West Virginia over 50.5
ATT: 70.7
Minnesota-Louisiana under 48.5
ATT: 39.7
Tulane-UAB under 59.5
ATT: 49.3
Marshall-Old Dominion under 47.5
ATT: 34.9
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
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