Thor Nystrom’s Big 10 Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)

In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each Big 10 college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC and for all of the independent teams.

Big 10 Preview & Win Totals Bets

Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicates a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.

Here are my stats from last summer's win total series:

2022 win totals final standings:

Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%

System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:

Same number as Vegas: 7
System 0.1-0.5: 31-20 | 60.8%
System 0.6-1: 16-27-1 | 35.5%
System 1.1-1.5: 12-4 | 75.0%
System 1.6-2.0: 8-2-1 | 80.0%
System 2.1+: 2-0 | 100%

System Breakdown:

System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%

Michigan Wolverines

Returning Starters: 8 offense, 7 defense

I see Michigan as the biggest threat to end Georgia's run as champions. The Wolverines' offense has improved its offensive PPG and YPG each of the last two seasons, and will probably do so again. The offensive line might be the nation's best... again. Last season, the Wolverines became the first program to ever win back-to-back Joe Moore Awards. Recently, Senior Bowl czar Jim Nagy tweeted that the 2023 Michigan offensive line has seven different prospects on the Senior Bowl's watch list - meaning two NFL-caliber linemen will be backups. Running behind that line is Blake Corum-Donovan Edwards, the best backfield duo in the country. QB JJ McCarthy is a legitimate NFL prospect. The offense needs to replace WR Ronnie Bell and TE Luke Schoonmaker's production. If there's one question area, it's the pass-catchers, but, if nothing else, the Wolverines have plenty of former top recruits stocked up.

Michigan finished top-5 in total defense last fall and very well may again. Up front, the Wolverines lost DT Mazi Smith and EDGE Mike Morris. But DT Kris Jenkins is one of the nation's best, and former Coastal Carolina sack artist Josaiah Stewart's addition is going to improve the pass-rush. The linebacking corps is ridiculous. All three starters return, and the Wolverines added future star LB Ernest Hausmann, who started as a true frosh for Nebraska last year. The secondary must replace DJ Turner, but three starters return and longtime UMass starting CB Josh Wallace was imported to help plug the hole.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 11.1

Las Vegas Win Total: 10.5

Thor's Bet: Over

A creampuff non-con, a conference crossover draw that ducks both Wisconsin and Iowa, and a home date against hated Ohio State? What's not to love with one of the nation's best, most-experienced rosters playing for one of its best coaching staffs? We think Michigan makes the CFP for the third-straight year, this time reaching the national title game.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
East Carolina	Michigan	-38.6	1
UNLV	Michigan	-42.9	1
Bowling Green	Michigan	-47.7	1
Rutgers	Michigan	-35.6	1
Michigan	Nebraska	-19.8	0.998
Michigan	Minnesota	-16.0	0.95
Indiana	Michigan	-37.9	1
Michigan	Michigan St.	-21.7	1
Purdue	Michigan	-29.5	1
Michigan	Penn St.	-3.8	0.62
Michigan	Maryland	-17.5	0.98
Ohio St.	Michigan	-3.0	0.57

Ohio State Buckeyes

Returning Starters: 7 offense, 7 defense

Ohio State is not too dissimilar from Georgia in that the entire season is going to come down to if the unknown heir apparent at QB - in this case, Kyle McCord - can come close to replacing the production of a departing star. QB CJ Stroud was a Heisman finalist in both his seasons starting. The Buckeyes also lose WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but they played without him last year and return one of the nation's most devastating WR corps, led by WR Marvin Harrison Jr. One spot to monitor: The offensive line, which lost three starters to the NFL. The Buckeyes imported two G5 transfers to attempt to plug those holes quickly and address depth. The RB room is one of the country's best but needs to stay healthy following a snake-bitten campaign.

On the other side of the ball, DC Jim Knowles' unit started hot during his inaugural campaign, but faded down the stretch, coughing up 30 points or more in the final three games (Maryland, Michigan, and Georgia). Against top teams, the lethargic pass-rush disappeared, and the Buckeyes proved to be susceptible against both the run (Michigan ran for 252 yards) and the pass (Maryland, Georgia, and Penn State all threw for over 315 yards). The pass-rush and run defense should both be better this year, as Ohio State returns both starting LB and one of the nation's best DL. I also think the pass defense is going to tick up, led by lockdown CB Denzel Burke, and hopefully aided by that improved pass rush.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 10.7

Las Vegas Win Total: 10.5

Thor's Bet: Pass

Too much up in the air here to make a wager. The road games at Notre Dame and Michigan are coinflips, and the Penn State and Wisconsin games aren't gimmies. If McCord is a star, 11 wins should be the expectation. If he's anything below that, this number is rich.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Ohio St.	Indiana	-32.7	1
Youngstown St.	Ohio St.	-54.5	1
Western Kentucky	Ohio St.	-35.6	1
Ohio St.	Notre Dame	-5.3	0.67
Maryland	Ohio St.	-22.1	1
Ohio St.	Purdue	-24.9	1
Penn St.	Ohio St.	-9.6	0.81
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	-10.5	0.84
Ohio St.	Rutgers	-30.8	1
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-26.1	1
Minnesota	Ohio St.	-21.2	1
Ohio St.	Michigan	3.0	0.43

Penn State Nittany Lions

Returning Starters: 8 offense, 8 defense

Entering his 10th season in Happy Valley, HC James Franklin has won 11 games three different times. But Franklin is 3-9 against Michigan and Ohio State since 2017. For a few years, the run game was a problem. In others, Franklin's reliable-but-physically-limited quarterbacks couldn't keep up in shootouts against top-tier programs. Franklin may have finally found a championship-caliber backfield duo in QB Drew Allar and RB Nicholas Singleton, a pair of ballyhooed sophomores. Singleton was a star from the day he stepped on campus. Allar, meanwhile, has the high-octane arm that Franklin's offenses have previously lacked. If Allar is as advertised, this unit is going to be very good.

Defensively, PSU ranked No. 10 in scoring defense in DC Manny Diaz's first season. With eight starters back on that side of the ball - including stars EDGE Chop Robinson and CB Kalen King - the Nittany Lions may be even better this fall. Diaz loves to send the heat, and his front-7 is well suited for that ethos, full of sleek athletes. And despite losing CB Joey Porter Jr. and S Ji'Ayir Brown, PSU still may have the country's best secondary. The other three starters return - including shutdown CB1 King - and the two-deep is littered with former elite recruits.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 10.1

Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5

Thor's Bet: Over

Are you comfortable trusting James Franklin? That's what this bet comes down to. Because outside of the Michigan and Ohio State games, my system projects Penn State as double-digit favorites in the other 10. Losses to the Wolverines and Buckeyes would require the Nittany Lions to run the table in the other 10 to go over - to take care of business, in other words. We like PSU's roster and believe they get to double-digit wins.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
West Virginia	Penn St.	-22.1	1
Delaware	Penn St.	-48.0	1
Penn St.	Illinois	-11.5	0.86
Iowa	Penn St.	-13.2	0.89
Penn St.	Northwestern	-27.2	1
Massachusetts	Penn St.	-47.5	1
Penn St.	Ohio St.	9.6	0.19
Indiana	Penn St.	-31.3	1
Penn St.	Maryland	-10.3	0.83
Michigan	Penn St.	3.8	0.38
Rutgers	Penn St.	-29.0	1
Penn St.	Michigan St.	-14.5	0.92

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Wisconsin Badgers

Returning Starters: 10 offense, 8 defense

Are you ready for the Bombs-Away Badgers? New HC Luke Fickell scrapped the program's longtime ground-and-pound identity when he hired OC Phil Longo. Matt Corral, Sam Howell, and Drake Maye are the last three quarterbacks to thrive in Longo's vertical passing attack. QB Tanner Mordecai, who originally signed with Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, was imported from SMU to run Wisko's offense for a year. Wisconsin returns four starters along the OL, and boasts one of the nation's best RBs in Braelon Allen (a big hammer back whose transition into Longo's spread attack will also be interesting to watch). The Badgers remade their WR corps with three portal additions - necessary moving into Longo's scheme.

The 2022 Badgers were sunk by an unsightly passing offense. The defense finished No. 10 in YPG allowed despite having only three starters back. That defense doesn't project to fall-off in 2023 with eight starters returning. New DC Mike Tressel - who previously held that post at Michigan State and Cincinnati (under Fickell) - replaces Jim Leonard. Tressel's 3-3-5 defense is an answer to spread offenses, with LBs and DBs fanned out and pre-snap intentions disguised. Tressel's 2021 Cincy defense ranked No. 2 in the nation in pass defense.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 9.6

Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5

Thor's Bet: Over

Fickell has a pair of home games in September against G5 teams to try to get his systems in place. But those are interspersed with a tricky road trip to Pullman to play Wazzu. Survive that, and there's a strong chance of going over, in part because of a nice break with the Big 10 schedule. Wisko avoids Penn State and Michigan in crossover play and gets Ohio State at home. My system favors Wisko in the 11 games not against the Buckeyes. The Bombs-Away Badgers may have a better Year 1 than most are anticipating.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Buffalo	Wisconsin	-30.1	1
Wisconsin	Washington St.	-9.6	0.81
Georgia Southern	Wisconsin	-28.8	1
Wisconsin	Purdue	-11.7	0.86
Rutgers	Wisconsin	-22.1	1
Iowa	Wisconsin	-6.3	0.7
Wisconsin	Illinois	-5.3	0.67
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	10.5	0.16
Wisconsin	Indiana	-19.5	0.997
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-25.4	1
Nebraska	Wisconsin	-11.2	0.85
Wisconsin	Minnesota	-2.6	0.55

Iowa Hawkeyes

Returning Starters: 9 offense, 7 defense

Last year's Hawkeyes were one of the most lopsided you'll ever see, with an abominable offense (17.7 PPG), a top-3 defense, and a top-10 special teams unit. With EDGE Lukas Van Ness, LB Jack Campbell, and CB Riley Moss now in the NFL, the kneejerk Iowa take might be that certain regression of the Hawkeyes' formerly elite defense will spell doom. But impressions can be deceiving. The defense likely will take that minor step back, but it isn't going to fall off a cliff. HC Kirk Ferentz and DC Phil Parker always have top-20 defenses.

Here's what makes Iowa a potential sleeper: The offense projects to be one of the nation's most-improved. No, really! QB Cade McNamara will be the best Hawkeyes QB in years, RB Kaleb Johnson has star potential, the WR corps is improved, and five starters return along the offensive line. Iowa did lose star TE Sam LaPorta, but the Hawkeyes still have two awesome TEs for their 12-personnel base with returning TE Luke Lachey and Michigan import TE Erick All. Not only that, but stipulations in OC Brian Ferentz's reworked contract require Iowa to score 25 PPG and win seven games in 2023 in order to stay (he'll be rewarded with a two-year extension if so).

Thor's Projected Win Total: 8.5

Las Vegas Win Total: 8

Thor's Bet: Over

As per usual, Iowa's OOC features two cupcakes and the annual Cy-Hawk game against Iowa State (this year in Ames). Iowa hits the Big 10 schedule right this season, ducking both Ohio State and Michgan. The Hawkeyes instead draw Rutges and Michigan State in crossover play. We'd pass at 8.5. But at 8, against this generous schedule, with the opportunity to get our money back with an 8-4 season, this is a play.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Utah St.	Iowa	-29.5	1
Iowa	Iowa St.	0.6	0.5
Western Michigan	Iowa	-32.7	1
Iowa	Penn St.	13.2	0.11
Michigan St.	Iowa	-9.1	0.8
Purdue	Iowa	-12.1	0.87
Iowa	Wisconsin	6.3	0.3
Minnesota	Iowa	-4.2	0.65
Northwestern	Iowa*	-19.1	0.995
Rutgers	Iowa	-18.2	0.99
Illinois	Iowa	-6.0	0.7
Iowa	Nebraska	-2.8	0.56

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Returning Starters: 7 offense, 6 defense

How effective will QB Athan Kaliakmanis and RB Sean Tyler replace QB Tanner Morgan and RB Mo Ibrahim? And how quickly can the new-look OL that lost three starters, including C John Michael Schmitz, coalesce? The Gophers' season will come down to those two questions. Kaliakmanis will certainly have weapons. Minnesota did slick work in the transfer portal, signing, in addition to Tyler, two projected starting WRs in Corey Crooms and Elijah Spencer. TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, a dual-threat tight end, also returns.

Defensively, the front-six of DC Joe Rossi's 3-3-5 defense should be strong again, with most of the key cast of characters returning. The huge question on defense revolves around a secondary that lost two NFL draft picks - CB Terrell Smith and S Jordan Howden. Fortunately, S Tyler Nubin spurned the NFL to return. This was another position HC PJ Fleck prioritized in the portal, signing two projected starters - CBs Tyler Bride and Jack Henderson. Bride arrives from Georgia Southern, while Henderson jumps up from the FCS. Can the pair handle assignments against elite passing offenses on the schedule like Ohio State and North Carolina?

Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.8

Las Vegas Win Total: 7

Thor's Bet: Pass

Minnesota used an advantageous schedule and veteran roster to rip off a second-consecutive 9-4 year last season. But this year, instead of three cupcakes in the non-con, the Gophers must travel to UNC and host a pair of G5 bowl teams in EMU and Louisiana. And after avoiding Ohio State and Michigan last year, Minnesota gets both in 2023. Phil Steele ranks Minny's schedule the seventh-toughest in the nation. In conjunction with a younger roster, expect regression in 2023. That's already baked into the objectively-fair number, making this a pass.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Nebraska	Minnesota	-5.9	0.69
Eastern Michigan	Minnesota	-24.2	1
Minnesota	North Carolina	7.1	0.26
Minnesota	Northwestern	-15.6	0.94
Louisiana	Minnesota	-18.9	0.994
Michigan	Minnesota	16.0	0.05
Minnesota	Iowa	4.2	0.35
Michigan St.	Minnesota	-7.7	0.76
Illinois	Minnesota	-4.6	0.66
Minnesota	Purdue	-6.3	0.7
Minnesota	Ohio St.	21.2	0
Wisconsin	Minnesota	2.6	0.45

Maryland Terrapins

Returning Starters: 5 offense, 6 defense

The Terps lost some high-octane athletes over the offseason - WRs Rakim Jarrett, Jacob Copeland, and Dontay Demus, and OT Jaelyn Duncan to the NFL, TE CJ Dippre to the portal, and CBs Deonte Banks and Jakorian Bennett to the NFL - and spent a busy offseason signing a top-25 portal class in an attempt to plug holes. The WR corps should be very good again, with Jeshaun Jones returning and joined by instant-impact transfers WRs Tyrese Chambers and Kaden Prather. The backfield will be top-notch with QB Taulia Tagovailoa and RB Roman Hemby. Maryland's OL was totally remade with four portal additions - can it hold up?

Last year's defense exceeded expectations, shaving a full touchdown off its PPG allowed. But this year's squad must replace its entire starting defensive line along with plugging the enormous holes in the secondary left by the departures of Banks and Bennett. The linebacking corps, fortunately, is very good. HC Mike Locksley was just as aggressive in the portal signing DL and DB as he was WR. While I'm bullish on the WR additions, it's unclear if the rebuilt Terps' front- and back-halves on defense can prevent a dropoff in those spots.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 7.5

Las Vegas Win Total: 7

Thor's Bet: Pass

Maryland plays in one of college football's toughest divisions. This is one of the more manageable schedules you can construct in that scenario. The OOC sets up for a 3-0 start, assuming a home win over UVA. And Maryland draws Northwestern and Illinois in Big 10 crossovers, while avoiding the West's top-three teams. My system favors Maryland in eight games, six of them by double-digits. I lean over, but because of my questions in the trenches and secondary, I'm going to pass.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Towson	Maryland	-35	1
Charlotte	Maryland	-31.0	1
Virginia	Maryland	-15.4	0.93
Maryland	Michigan St.	-2	0.53
Indiana	Maryland	-17.6	0.98
Maryland	Ohio St.	22.1	0
Illinois	Maryland	-3.1	0.57
Maryland	Northwestern	-14.7	0.92
Penn St.	Maryland	10.3	0.17
Maryland	Nebraska	0.1	0.5
Michigan	Maryland	17.5	0.02
Maryland	Rutgers	-11.3	0.85

Illinois Fighting Illini

Returning Starters: 6 offense, 6 defense

Folks, it's officially time to start rethinking Bret Bielema. In 14 seasons as HC, he's 110-70, and has had only three losing seasons. Last year's upstart 8-5 team was tremendous on the ground and had a fabulous defense. The run game loses RB Chase Brown, and the defense loses Broyles winner DC Ryan Walters (Purdue HC) along with three DBs taken in the first two days of the NFL Draft. Illinois will rely heavily on returning personnel to fill the gaps after signing a middling No. 64 portal class.

The Illini did look to the portal to address the QB vacancy, signing Luke Altmyer (Ole Miss) and John Paddock (Ball State) to compete for Tommy DeVito's old gig. The RB spot will be a platoon between Reggie Love and Josh McCray. More passing could be in store if Altmyer lives up to his recruiting billing, because the Isaiah Williams-led WR corps is strong. Where the Illini will struggle to replicate success is on the defensive side. Last year's secondary was the nation's best - this year's secondary breaks in three new starters.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.8

Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5

Thor's Bet: Pass

The talent level dips, but, fortunately, the schedule is manageable. The OOC slate is two G5 teams and a road tilt at Kansas. And Illinois lucks out big time in the Big 10 schedule, ducking both Michigan and Ohio State, and getting both Wisconsin and Penn State at home. The Vegas number doesn't provide much value from a betting perspective.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Toledo	Illinois	-8.3	0.78
Illinois	Kansas	-1.2	0.51
Penn St.	Illinois	11.5	0.14
Florida Atlantic	Illinois	-12.8	0.88
Illinois	Purdue	-4.5	0.66
Nebraska	Illinois	-3.2	0.58
Illinois	Maryland	3.1	0.43
Wisconsin	Illinois	5.3	0.33
Illinois	Minnesota	4.6	0.34
Illinois	Indiana	-12.3	0.87
Illinois	Iowa	6.0	0.3
Northwestern	Illinois	-17.4	0.97

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Returning Starters: 7 offense, 8 defense

Matt Rhule used his first offseason to rejigger his roster through the portal, signing the No. 28 class. His biggest decision on that front was swapping out QB Casey Thompson for ex-Georgia Tech QB Jeff Sims. Sims is long on talent, but to this point has been short on consistency. He's a big dual-threat whose 4.4 wheels are going to be relied on to open up Nebraska's lethargic ground game. But the Huskers have to be careful about using Sims too much - QB depth is scant, and Sims was limited to only 15 games the past two years due to injury. Fortunately, Nebraska returns four starters on the OL, and Rhule did well in the portal to restock a WR corps that lost Trey Palmer to the NFL. There's also talent in the RB room between Anthony Grant and Gabe Ervin.

Defensively, Nebraska's eight returning starters are transitioning into the 3-3-5 scheme that Rhule prefers. Nebraska lost DEs Garrett Nelson and Ochaun Mathis to the NFL and LB Ernest Hausmann to Michigan, but return most everyone else. Nebraska has one of the Big 10's best secondaries, including a stingy pair of returning starters at corner. And even without Hausmann, the LB corps projects to be strong. The question for the defense, which was so frequently ripped on the ground last fall, is how the new-look front will hold up.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.7

Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5

Thor's Bet: Pass

Rhule rebuilt both hopeless situations he previously undertook, Temple and post-Briles Baylor. But that comes with a caveat: He went 2-10 his first year at Temple, and 1-11 his first year at Baylor. He's going to surpass two wins this year, if for no other reason than the schedule offers three gimmies. Outside of that, there's a ton of variance, with seven different games featuring adjusted spreads less than a TD either way. But all told, my number falls very close to the Vegas line, so we're going to pass.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Nebraska	Minnesota	5.9	0.31
Nebraska	Colorado	-6.2	0.7
Northern Illinois	Nebraska	-18.7	0.992
Louisiana Tech	Nebraska	-20.8	0.999
Michigan	Nebraska	19.8	0.002
Nebraska	Illinois	3.2	0.42
Northwestern	Nebraska	-16.3	0.95
Purdue	Nebraska	-6.9	0.73
Nebraska	Michigan St.	-0.2	0.5
Maryland	Nebraska	0.1	0.5
Nebraska	Wisconsin	11.2	0.15
Iowa	Nebraska	2.8	0.44

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Michigan State Spartans

Returning Starters: 6 offense, 7 defense

Last year's 5-7 debacle included a lack of offensive identity, a defensive implosion, and an off-the-field brawl with Michigan. Progress made in the portal early was arguably lost late in the spring when QB Payton Thorne and WR Keon Coleman bolted for Auburn and Florida State, respectively. The viability of the offense will come down to how effective unknown sophomore QB Noah Kim can be. Sparty's receiving corps was decimated between the loss of Coleman and Jayden Reed. The good news is that the OL returns four starters and should be strong.

Speaking of good news - glass-half-full variety - the defense can only get better. Tucker, the defensive guru, has yet to field a defense in East Lansing that ranked inside the nation's top-100. Last year's crew started 27 different players between injuries and suspensions. Tucker clearly prioritized the front-seven when dipping his toe into the portal, and came out with a former top-5 DE recruit and top-15 JUCO DT who project as immediate starters.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 5.1

Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5

Thor's Bet: Under

The schedule isn't doing Sparty any favors - it ranks as Phil Steele's No. 3-hardest. The Spartans should start 2-0, but the gauntlet begins from there, including an OOC against Washington. We see Sparty getting shut out of bowl season for a second-straight season.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Central Michigan	Michigan St.	-17.4	0.97
Richmond	Michigan St.	-31	1
Washington	Michigan St.	12.0	0.13
Maryland	Michigan St.	2.0	0.47
Michigan St.	Iowa	9.1	0.2
Michigan St.	Rutgers	-7.3	0.75
Michigan	Michigan St.	21.7	0
Michigan St.	Minnesota	7.7	0.24
Nebraska	Michigan St.	-0.2	0.5
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	26.1	0
Michigan St.	Indiana	-9.2	0.8
Penn St.	Michigan St.	14.5	0.08

Purdue Boilermakers

Returning Starters: 6 offense, 5 defense

The Boilermakers lost very strong HC Jeff Brohm along with an NFL QB in Aidan O'Connell over the offseason. But they did well in hiring Broyles-winning ex-Illinois DC Ryan Walters to replace Brohm. Walters, in turn, signed former Texas QB Hudson Card to run new OC Graham Harrell's Air Raid system. With Harrell calling plays on offense and Walters calling plays on defense, Purdue can rightfully claim to have two of the sport's better play-callers in charge on both sides of the ball. Card is a former top recruit who has posted an 11/2 TD/INT rate over five career starts. He may not be a downgrade on O'Connell - and Card will bring an element of mobility that O'Connell lacked. He might need it. One potential area of concern is an OL that lost three projected starters to transfer in the spring.

Purdue lost several defensive contributors to graduation, so Walters hit this side of the ball hard in the portal. At least three transfers are projected to start. Walters is transitioning Purdue out of a 4-2-5 and into a 3-4 that presses five men to the line of scrimmage. The linebacker and safety units project as strengths. But Walters' first Purdue defense is counting heavily on unknown transfers along the defensive line and at corner to replace departed production.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 4.5

Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5

Thor's Bet: Under

Walters got no favors in his first season with the schedule. The non-con has three tricky games. Zero cupcakes. In Big 10 play, Purdue draws both Michigan and Ohio State in crossover play. I'm bullish on Walters long-term. But the scheme transitions meeting up with a brutal schedule could make for a difficult Year 1.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Fresno St.	Purdue	-5.0	0.66
Purdue	Virginia Tech	-3.2	0.58
Syracuse	Purdue	0.9	0.5
Wisconsin	Purdue	11.7	0.14
Illinois	Purdue	4.5	0.34
Purdue	Iowa	12.1	0.13
Ohio St.	Purdue	24.9	0
Purdue	Nebraska	6.9	0.27
Purdue	Michigan	29.5	0
Minnesota	Purdue	6.3	0.3
Purdue	Northwestern	-7.7	0.76
Indiana	Purdue	-10.0	0.82

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Returning Starters: 6 offense, 8 defense

Last year's team had a solid defense and atrocious offense. Fixing the latter is largely going to come down to the development of young QB Gavin Wimsatt, a former four-star dual-threat recruit. Forced into duty prematurely last season, Wimsatt flashed ability a few times, but his play was mostly unsightly, particularly as a thrower. Fortunately, Rutgers does appear to have a keeper next to him in the backfield in fellow sophomore RB Samuel Brown, who appears poised for a breakout campaign. But if Wimsatt can't threaten defenses through the air, Rutgers is going to face a procession of stacked boxes.

With eight starters returning on the other side of the ball, the defense is going to be strong again. This unit finished No. 37 in total defense last year, and with standouts returning at all three levels, it's not out of the realm of possibility that it could finish higher in 2023. Rutgers missed LB Mo Toure last year, and will welcome back his havoc-creating ethos after he missed last fall with an ACL tear.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 3.8

Las Vegas Win Total: 4

Thor's Bet: Pass

A 4-1 start is entirely possible. But while my system has Rutgers favored in four-of-five to start, three of those games have adjusted spreads of less than six points. The schedule tightens up considerably from there. We see 4-8 as Rutgers' most-likely record and aren't able to tie up money on the possibility of 5-7.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Northwestern	Rutgers	-5.1	0.67
Temple	Rutgers	-5.3	0.67
Virginia Tech	Rutgers	-1.4	0.51
Rutgers	Michigan	35.6	0
Wagner	Rutgers	-22.0	1
Rutgers	Wisconsin	22.1	0
Michigan St.	Rutgers	7.3	0.25
Rutgers	Indiana	0.1	0.5
Ohio St.	Rutgers	30.8	0
Rutgers	Iowa	18.2	0.01
Rutgers	Penn St.	29.0	0
Maryland	Rutgers	11.3	0.15

Indiana Hoosiers

Returning Starters: 5 offense, 3 defense

If this is it for HC Tom Allen, he's going to go down swinging. Allen, 6-18 the past two seasons and returning only eight starters, sitting on a brimstone-hot seat, went YOLO in the portal in an attempt to save himself. Indiana signed the No. 18 portal class, which includes seven projected starters. The most important of them could be projected starter QB Taven Jackson, a Tennessee transfer. WR Cam Camper, exceptional before injury, returns from the trainer's room. The offensive line has four starters with starting experience and will be overseen by the former Wisconsin OL coach.

Though only three starters return on defense, that probably isn't a bad thing after last year's unit coughed up 34 PPG. Allen's transfer-portal gambit was particularly aggressive on this side of the ball, as the two-deep is littered with new additions. Former MAC standout DE Andre Carter will lock down one end spot. But the scary prospect revolving around most of the others is that, while they come from bigger P5 programs, many didn't see the field at their former stops. So you're trusting both Allen's scouting and quick-development to project leaps.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 2.8

Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5

Thor's Bet: Under

With a roster counting on so many unknowns, it's fair to say that Indiana is the Big 10's unknown. They could outperform expectations if Allen unearthed a bunch of hidden gems on other teams' benches and got them to quickly coalesce. It's also possible that this will be an unmitigated disaster that leads to Allen’s firing in October. We're admittedly splitting the difference in our projection, a median outcome that would send the Hoosiers under the total and Allen packing.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Ohio St.	Indiana	32.7	0
Indiana St.	Indiana	-20.0	0.998
Louisville	Indiana	16.8	0.04
Akron	Indiana	-10.9	0.85
Indiana	Maryland	17.6	0.02
Indiana	Michigan	37.9	0
Rutgers	Indiana	0.1	0.5
Indiana	Penn St.	31.3	0
Wisconsin	Indiana	19.5	0.003
Indiana	Illinois	16.4	0.05
Michigan St.	Indiana	9.2	0.2
Indiana	Purdue	10.0	0.18

Northwestern Wildcats

Returning Starters: 4 offense, 8 defense

I downgraded the Wildcats in my power ratings after the firing of HC Pat Fitzgerald. It destroys morale. It potentially leads to transfers. It blows up the coaching staff. It elevates the DC hire who has never coached at the FBS level into the HC role and shuffles around the roles on the staff behind him. It removes the heart, soul, and face of the program - and a dang good coach - off the team 60 days before kickoff. And it introduces a season-long media distraction. In what was likely to be a lost season, anyway.

And this is a team that was already facing the prospect of losing stars Peter Skoronski, Evan Hull, and Adetomiwa Adebawore. And that team won only one game last year! One thing that I do think will improve: The passing game. The addition of QB Ben Bryant from Cincinnati was inspired. The Wildcats then spruced up his arsenal with portal pickups WRs AJ Henning (Michigan) and Cam Johnson (Arizona State). The Skoronski-less OL is a big question mark. The Adebawore-less defense returns tackle-machine LB Bryce Gallagher and could be decent. But it's likely going to put in bad situations all fall by a poor offense.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 2.5

Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5

Thor's Bet: Under

The non-con schedule should bring two wins. The problem is finding a win in Big 10 play. Between the out-manned roster, the off-field distractions, and the inexperienced coaching staff facing a brutal schedule, we feel pretty confident going under this number.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Northwestern	Rutgers	5.1	0.33
UTEP	Northwestern	-6.6	0.71
Northwestern	Duke	17.8	0.02
Minnesota	Northwestern	15.6	0.06
Penn St.	Northwestern	27.2	0
Howard	Northwestern	-17.5	0.98
Northwestern	Nebraska	16.3	0.05
Maryland	Northwestern	14.7	0.08
Northwestern*	Iowa	19.1	0.005
Northwestern	Wisconsin	25.4	0
Purdue	Northwestern	7.7	0.24
Northwestern	Illinois	17.4	0.03

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