In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each Big 12 college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each Big 12 college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicate a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
Stats from last summer's win total series:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%
System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%
Returning starters: 10 offense, 6 defense
RBs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson are gone. But basically, everyone else is back. Stars QB Quinn Ewers and WR Xavier Worthy welcome WRs AD Mitchell (from the portal) and Isiah Neyor (back from injury) to the party this fall. Along with WR Jordan Whittington and TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, Ewers has weapons aplenty. The RB competition is going to come down to five-star recruits from the last two classes (CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue) and a vet (Jon Brooks). The victor (or victors) will greatly benefit from all five offensive linemen - each of whom started all 13 games last year - returning to their posts in 2013. If Ewers takes the next step, and one of the young RBs is a ready-made star, this offense could be legitimately special.
Texas' defense made massive strides last season, finishing No. 27 with 21.6 PPG allowed and No. 32 with 125.7 rushing YPG allowed. The pass defense, however, limped behind at No. 90 in YPG allowed, one reason the total defense finished No. 53 in total YPG surrendered. The pass rush led the entire nation in pressures but curiously struggled to convert them into sacks (No. 71 in the FBS). The defense also ranked only No. 104 in turnovers forced. Of Texas' five total portal signees, two are projected starters in the secondary. That was a clear emphasis of HC Steve Sarkisian's this offseason. We'll find out this fall if he did enough to stop the bleeding.
Thor's projected win total: 10.6
Las Vegas win total: 9.5
Thor's bet: Over
Outside of the road tilt at Alabama, my system installs Texas as 7.5-point-or-greater favorites in the other 11 games. And my system has the line for that Alabama game under a field goal. My system also projects the Longhorns to have 1.2 more Big 12 wins than any other team (and 2.4 more than the No. 3 team!). In other words, this team is Big 12 title game bound, barring horrid injury luck. We're going over the number.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Rice | -35.3 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Alabama | 2.7 | 0.45 | Away |
| 3 | Wyoming | -31.5 | 1.00 | Home |
| 4 | Baylor | -9.5 | 0.81 | Away |
| 5 | Kansas | -20.6 | 1.00 | Home |
| 6 | Oklahoma | -7.9 | 0.77 | Home |
| 8 | Houston | -19.8 | 1.00 | Away |
| 9 | BYU | -22.9 | 1.00 | Home |
| 10 | Kansas St. | -15.8 | 0.94 | Home |
| 11 | TCU | -9.2 | 0.80 | Away |
| 12 | Iowa St. | -13.0 | 0.89 | Away |
| 13 | Texas Tech | -13.7 | 0.90 | Home |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 6 defense
OU HC Brent Venables responded to last year's 6-7 disaster by signing a top-10 portal class - almost the entirety of Lincoln Riley's final roster has now been overturned. The offense wasn't a problem when QB Dillon Gabriel was healthy, averaging 37 PPG (12 PPG in the two games he didn't appear in). The losses of RB Eric Gray, WR Marvin Mims, and both starting tackles to the NFL hurt. But the OL remains extremely experienced, in part due to portal acquisitions. The question marks are who will step up at RB, and can WR Jalil Faroq develop into a star? If Faroq doesn't, the WR corps will be passable but certainly not dangerous.
Oklahoma's 2022 defense was a travesty, ranking No. 121 in total defense. Venables, wary of seeing his defensive reputation tarnished, hit this side of the ball hard in the portal. Four projected defensive starters arrive fresh from the portal, including Freshman All-American LB Dasan McCullough. Oklahoma lost five games by one possession last season. If the offense remains as potent, and the defense takes a tangible step forward, this team is far closer to the double-digit win teams that preceded it than is commonly believed.
Thor's projected win total: 9.8
Las Vegas win total: 9.5
Thor's bet: Pass
Venables, already on the hot seat after last year's nightmare, desperately needed two things heading into the 2023 season to ensure the administration didn't start to seriously discuss pulling the plug: 1) A strong offseason in the portal, 2) An easy 2023 schedule. He got both. The Sooners will likely start 3-0 courtesy of three G5 OOC opponents. In Big 12 play, Oklahoma ducks Kansas State and Baylor while drawing seven-of-the-eight-lowest-ranked Big 12 teams in my power ratings. This is a roster that can absolutely challenge for double-digit wins against this schedule. But until we trust the coaching staff, we're not able to call for it with our number so close to a Vegas line that has already baked in OU's forgiving slate.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Arkansas St. | -35.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | SMU | -15.2 | 0.93 | Home |
| 3 | Tulsa | -26.7 | 1.00 | Away |
| 4 | Cincinnati | -12.1 | 0.87 | Away |
| 5 | Iowa St. | -11.5 | 0.86 | Home |
| 6 | Texas | 7.9 | 0.23 | Away |
| 8 | UCF | -11.7 | 0.86 | Home |
| 9 | Kansas | -8.1 | 0.78 | Away |
| 10 | Oklahoma St. | -6.8 | 0.72 | Away |
| 11 | West Virginia | -17.1 | 0.97 | Home |
| 12 | BYU | -10.1 | 0.82 | Away |
| 13 | TCU | -7.3 | 0.75 | Home |
Returning starters: 11 offense, 6 defense
Outside of EDGE Tyree Wilson and a few worker-bee defensive starters, Texas Tech lost very little over the offseason. That's why the Red Raiders weren't as active in the portal (No. 57 class) as some other Big 12 teams. But Tech did make their signings count, bringing in three transfers who are projected to start. Last year's offense ranked No. 22 in YPG and is very likely to be better in its second year under OC Zach Kittley. You have the continuity of the 11 starters returning, and you also shouldn't be playing QB roulette again. Last year, three-different TTU signal-callers threw for 1,100 yards or more. The hope is that QB Tyler Shough finally stays healthy for an entire season. If Shough can't, though, Tech has a ready-made young starter in QB Behren Morton, who has a big-league arm. Tech's offense is going to hum either way.
The big question is whether the defense will have come along far enough for the Red Raiders to consistently win shootouts. Last year's bunch finished No. 107 in total defense and now must replace a superstar in Wilson. Two portal additions are projected to start in the front seven, including ex-Syracuse EDGE Steve Linton, who takes over for Wilson. Texas Tech led the Big 12 in sacks last year and can't afford a substantial drop-off in that department. The Red Raiders' bend-but-don't-break defense was top-10 nationally in red zone defense. Can it stay situationally strong while cutting down on the YPG allowed (No. 107)?
Thor's projected win total: 8
Las Vegas win total: 7.5
Thor's bet: Pass
The only likely loss on this schedule is the road tilt at Texas. My system favors Tech in nine games. We lean over, along with our system. But Shough's injury history and our serious questions about the defense are going to keep us away from the window on this one.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Wyoming | -15.1 | 0.93 | Away |
| 2 | Oregon | 3.7 | 0.39 | Home |
| 3 | Tarleton St. | -38.8 | 1.00 | Home |
| 4 | West Virginia | -8.1 | 0.78 | Away |
| 5 | Houston | -14.0 | 0.91 | Home |
| 6 | Baylor | 1.6 | 0.48 | Away |
| 7 | Kansas St. | -5.3 | 0.67 | Home |
| 8 | BYU | -6.9 | 0.73 | Away |
| 10 | TCU | -3.7 | 0.61 | Home |
| 11 | Kansas | -4.8 | 0.66 | Away |
| 12 | UCF | -8.1 | 0.78 | Home |
| 13 | Texas | 13.7 | 0.10 | Away |
Connect with sportsbooks to automatically sync your balances and bets >>
Returning starters: 3 offense, 7 defense
In last summer's win total preview, we advocated for an "over" play on TCU's 6.5 win total, writing, "The issues with last year's team were the passing offense and the defense, which are likely to improve significantly. ... I think the Horned Frogs surprise folks this fall." We certainly didn't see a title-game run coming, of course. For an encore, HC Sonny Dykes is going to have to navigate increased expectations with a roster that lost numerous key contributors - QB Max Duggan, RB Kendre Miller, WRs Quentin Johnston, Taye Barber, and Derius Davis, OL Steve Avilla, EDGE Dylan Horton, LB Dee Winters, and CB Tre Tomlinson.
QB Chandler Morris will get a second crack at the starting gig after winning it out of camp last summer, only to quickly get displaced by Duggan. Morris is a streaky pocket passer with a bit of mobility who is theoretically a great fit for Dykes' system. TCU's No. 20 portal class went heavy on skilled guys to plug all the holes. Former top Alabama recruits RB Trey Sanders and WR Jojo Earle are projected starters, as is former Okie State WR JP Richardson. Replacing three starters along the interior OL could prove tricky. Though I expect the offense to take a step back, the defense, fortunately, should be better. Numerous key contributors return, and TCU did well in the portal and through JUCO signings restocking the two-deep. The Frogs just have to rejigger the pass rush after almost 60 percent of the team's sacks are left with Horton and Winters.
Thor's projected win total: 7.7
Las Vegas win total: 7.5
Thor's bet: Pass
We understand pessimism around TCU after the amount of talent it lost from last year's lightning-in-a-bottle roster. But the Frogs' schedule builds on a pretty high floor - TCU ain't falling back into obscurity this fall. My system installs TCU as a double-digit favorite in five games and an eight-point fav in another. The other six games on the schedule? My system lists single-digit spreads for each. TCU is heading back to a bowl. The Vegas number is objectively correct. No play.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Colorado | -16.6 | 0.96 | Home |
| 2 | Nicholls St. | -37.6 | 1.00 | Home |
| 3 | Houston | -8.1 | 0.78 | Away |
| 4 | SMU | -10.4 | 0.83 | Home |
| 5 | West Virginia | -12.3 | 0.87 | Home |
| 6 | Iowa St. | -1.4 | 0.51 | Away |
| 7 | BYU | -11.3 | 0.85 | Home |
| 8 | Kansas St. | 1.6 | 0.48 | Away |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 3.7 | 0.39 | Away |
| 11 | Texas | 9.2 | 0.20 | Home |
| 12 | Baylor | -3.5 | 0.59 | Home |
| 13 | Oklahoma | 7.3 | 0.25 | Away |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 5 defense
Baylor took a step back to 6-7 last season after a 12-2 breakthrough in 2021. QB Blake Shapen struggled with health and consistency, prompting Baylor to bring in ex-Mississippi State QB Sawyer Robertson in the portal. But Shapen beat out Robertson in the spring competition and will keep his job. The Bears have talent and depth at both RB and WR but could use the emergence of a WR1. The OL lost four starters and brought in multiple transfers in an attempt to fortify that. The offense's viability may come down to how quickly that group coalesces.
The defense, stingy in 2021, sagged to middle-of-the-pack in most major categories last fall. That led to the firing of DC Ron Roberts and the hiring of former Oregon co-DC Matt Powledge, who was Baylor's special teams coordinator/safeties coach between 2020-2021. Baylor fell off in both sacks and turnovers last year. Perhaps one reason Powledge has preached aggression since the spring. Baylor will play more press-man coverage in 2023, and Powledge says they'll get more heat on quarterbacks. The scheme will have more stylistic similarities to Aranda's old defenses at Wisconsin and LSU than Roberts' did last fall. Improving the pass rush is of the utmost importance because Baylor's secondary is arguably its least-experienced position group.
Thor's projected win total: 7.6
Las Vegas win total: 6.5
Thor's bet: Over
The market is pessimistic about Baylor after last year's rough season. But many signs point to a bounceback. A healthy Shapen is going to be much-improved over last year's QB situation - and even if he's not, the Bears now have a viable fallback option in Robertson. The offensive weapons should be better. And we're bullish that Powledge will coax legitimate improvement from a defensive unit that at times appeared asleep at the wheel last fall.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Texas St. | -32.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Utah | 3.8 | 0.38 | Home |
| 3 | LIU | -37.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| 4 | Texas | 9.5 | 0.19 | Home |
| 5 | UCF | -0.5 | 0.50 | Away |
| 6 | Texas Tech | -1.6 | 0.52 | Home |
| 8 | Cincinnati | -7.4 | 0.75 | Away |
| 9 | Iowa St. | -6.4 | 0.71 | Home |
| 10 | Houston | -12.5 | 0.88 | Home |
| 11 | Kansas St. | 2.5 | 0.46 | Away |
| 12 | TCU | 3.5 | 0.41 | Away |
| 13 | West Virginia | -12.0 | 0.87 | Home |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 5 defense
The Wildcats lose QB Adrian Martinez and RB Deuce Vaughn, but all five starters return along a nasty offensive line, and the QB and RB rooms both appear to be in good shape. QB Will Howard provided more as a passer than Martinez did last year - albeit as less of a mobile threat - while KSU did well to add ex-FSU RB Treshaun Ward to the backfield to ostensibly platoon with DJ Giddens. Last year's offense ranked No. 40 in YPG, and this year's group could be just as good.
With only five starters back on defense, however, the defense is likely to take at least a small step back. KSU lost two legitimate stars in EDGE, Felix Anudike-Uzomah and CB Julius Brents. Three new starters must be broken into the secondary, and KSU must figure out how to keep the heat on quarterbacks with Anudike-Uzomah now playing on Sundays.
Thor's projected win total: 7.2
Las Vegas win total: 7.5
Thor's bet: Pass
KSU plays Phil Steele's No. 15 SOS, which includes two tricky non-con games, a home date against Troy, and a road tilt at Mizzou. The Wildcats also got a tough draw with the Big 12 schedule, missing Cincy, West Virginia, and BYU, three of the projected weakest teams in the conference. The KSU win total opener of 8.5 was too rich. But the current 7.5 number is spot-on.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Southeast Missouri St. | -36.6 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Troy | -12.4 | 0.87 | Home |
| 3 | Missouri | 1.1 | 0.49 | Away |
| 4 | UCF | -6.0 | 0.70 | Home |
| 6 | Oklahoma St. | -1.4 | 0.51 | Away |
| 7 | Texas Tech | 5.3 | 0.33 | Away |
| 8 | TCU | -1.6 | 0.52 | Home |
| 9 | Houston | -11.9 | 0.86 | Home |
| 10 | Texas | 15.8 | 0.06 | Away |
| 11 | Baylor | -2.5 | 0.54 | Home |
| 12 | Kansas | -2.7 | 0.55 | Away |
| 13 | Iowa St. | -5.8 | 0.69 | Home |
Returning starters: 8* offense, 6 defense
The legal woes related to sports betting of QB Hunter Dekkers - and potentially a few of his teammates - dramatically alters the projections of the Cyclones. Following that news, ISU dropped from No. 39 to No. 48 in my power ratings, and fell from 6.2 projected wins to 5.3. If more players' 2023 availabilities are affected, ISU's projections will fall further. The 2022 offense was brutal enough, finishing No. 113 in PPG. At time of this publication in early-August, ISU was facing the prospect of a permanent loss of Dekkers' eligibility (my number of returning offensive starters above omits Dekkers). Dekkers started all 12 games last season. The offense also loses WR Xavier Hutchinson and C Trevor Downing. It returns most everyone else - barring further revelations from the Attorney’s Office.
Last year's defense ranked top-5 nationally in YPG allowed, and was top-15 against both the run and pass. Iowa State must replace star EDGE Will McDonald, a constant pressure-generator. The Cyclones' secondary returns most key contributors and is going to be outstanding again. There are more questions along the McDonald-less front-seven, which will be breaking in four new starters. The 2023 ISU defense may not qualitatively match the 2022 version, but it shouldn't fall off by much - assuming no projected starter is suspended.
Thor's projected win total: 5.3
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor's bet: Pass
After five-straight bowl appearances, momentum finally stalled for HC Matt Campbell in Ames last fall as the Cyclones suffered through a nightmarish 4-8 season. The gambling probe into the ISU program was obviously the last thing Campbell needed. We'll need to wait to see if another shoe is going to drop. But to look at this thing glass-half-full: This year's offense probably can't be worse than last year's, and last year's team had six losses by one-possession. ISU needs its defense to be amazing again, and it's going to need to one of its three remaining scholarship quarterbacks to at least be passable. If those two things happen, a bowl season would still be in play. We're going to pass at this number.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Northern Iowa | -31.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Iowa | 3.1 | 0.43 | Home |
| 3 | Ohio | -10.4 | 0.83 | Away |
| 4 | Oklahoma St. | -2.2 | 0.53 | Home |
| 5 | Oklahoma | 13.9 | 0.10 | Away |
| 6 | TCU | 3.9 | 0.37 | Home |
| 7 | Cincinnati | -1.1 | 0.51 | Away |
| 9 | Baylor | 8.7 | 0.21 | Away |
| 10 | Kansas | -2.5 | 0.54 | Home |
| 11 | BYU | 0.3 | 0.50 | Away |
| 12 | Texas | 15.6 | 0.06 | Home |
| 13 | Kansas St. | 7.8 | 0.23 | Away |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
Of the four programs entering the Big 12 in 2023, UCF projects to be the strongest. The Knights have an experienced roster - No. 9 in returning production per Phil Steele - that is full of ex-P5 players or players who chose UCF over the P5 during recruitment. QB John Rhys Plumlee is a perfect fit for HC Gus Malzahn's up-tempo offense, a fabulous runner who can keep defenses honest with his arm. The skill groups are stocked with plenty of speed. The OL is experienced and deep.
Last year's defense was hit-and-miss, largely depending on the matchup. UCF's pass defense was decent, but its run defense was susceptible to getting ripped (No. 77 rushing YPG allowed). The Knights' secondary is one of the five best in the Big 12. But how will the 4-2-5 front hold up in the Big 12? Malzahn added multiple transfers along the DL and LB in the portal and is crossing his fingers that it'll be enough to get the run defense to at least FBS average.
Thor's projected win total: 7
Las Vegas win total: 7
Thor's bet: Pass
The Knights should have a successful first year in the Big 12, in part because of the schedule. The OOC slate features two cupcakes and a winnable road game at Boise State. The Big 12 schedule brought the good fortune of ducking both Texas and TCU. But with my number falling smack-dab on Vegas', we have to pass.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Kent St. | -32.5 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Boise St. | -2.5 | 0.54 | Away |
| 3 | Villanova | -33.6 | 1.00 | Home |
| 4 | Kansas St. | 6.0 | 0.30 | Away |
| 5 | Baylor | 0.5 | 0.50 | Home |
| 6 | Kansas | 0.1 | 0.50 | Away |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 11.7 | 0.14 | Away |
| 9 | West Virginia | -8.4 | 0.79 | Home |
| 10 | Cincinnati | -3.9 | 0.63 | Away |
| 11 | Oklahoma St. | -4.7 | 0.66 | Home |
| 12 | Texas Tech | 8.1 | 0.22 | Away |
| 13 | Houston | -8.8 | 0.80 | Home |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 6 defense
Last season's 7-6 finish was Okie State's worst since 2018. The projected starting QB (Alan Bowman) is a sixth-year senior who attempted only 11 passes the past two seasons combined at Michigan. There will be a new DC for the second-straight year. Pessimism abounds. But the Pokes, off everyone's radar, have enough pieces to surprise this season. Bowman is Kliff Kingsbury's former hand-picked QB to run the Air Raid. Bowman showed ability earlier in his career. Okie State has an exciting talent at RB in Ollie Gordon, a deep receiving corps, and a veteran OL that returns 129 career starts.
Okie State's defense is transitioning into a 3-3-5 scheme after imploding to a No. 114 finish last year in total defense. The idea is to get more speed on the field to counteract spread offenses - Iowa State has had great success with a similar scheme. The Pokes aren't going to get back to their 2021 heyday (18.1 PPG allowed) but will almost certainly improve upon last year's dreadful showing (28.9 PPG).
Thor's projected win total: 7
Las Vegas win total: 6.5
Thor's bet: Over
One data point to support the idea that Oklahoma State is a sneaky bounceback team in 2023? The schedule is one of the easiest any Power 5 team will play in 2023 (Steele's No. 62 SOS). The OOC is an FCS team, a manageable road trip to Arizona State and a home date against South Alabama. And the Big 12 schedule-makers sure did HC Mike Gundy a favor. All four newcomers, West Virginia, Kansas, and Iowa State are on OSU's schedule. Texas, TCU, and Baylor are not. Additionally, Oklahoma and Kansas State both must travel to Stillwater.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Central Arkansas | -32.1 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Arizona St. | -3.3 | 0.58 | Away |
| 3 | South Alabama | -8.2 | 0.78 | Home |
| 4 | Iowa St. | 4.8 | 0.34 | Away |
| 6 | Kansas St. | 1.4 | 0.49 | Home |
| 7 | Kansas | -3.4 | 0.59 | Home |
| 8 | West Virginia | -1.3 | 0.51 | Away |
| 9 | Cincinnati | -7.7 | 0.76 | Home |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 6.8 | 0.28 | Home |
| 11 | UCF | 4.7 | 0.34 | Away |
| 12 | Houston | -1.9 | 0.52 | Away |
| 13 | BYU | -5.8 | 0.69 | Home |
Connect with sportsbooks to automatically sync your balances and bets >>
Returning starters: 10 offense, 7 defense
HC Lance Leipold went 109-6 in eight seasons at Wisconsin-Whitewater. He then took over a Buffalo team coming off a 5-6 season. Leipold went 7-17 his first two seasons, then 30-16 over his final four. He went 2-10 his first year at Kansas before last year's 6-7 breakthrough that included a Liberty Bowl trip. Leipold returns to the No. 1-most experienced roster in college football, per Steele. Not only does KU have 17 returning starters, but most of the backups - including at quarterback - are experienced as well. Last year's offense ranked No. 20 in scoring and No. 31 in YPG, and that was while playing without starting QB Jalon Daniels for a month (shoulder) and valued platoon RB Daniel Hishaw from Oct. 1 on (hip).
Daniels and Hishaw are both back healthy, along with most of their pals on that side of the ball. KU has a deep RB room, an underrated and highly-reliable WR corps, and one of the conference's best OLs. Can the defense improve in 2023? KU ranked No. 126 in total defense last fall. Every starter at LB and DB is back - and KU's secondary did have its moments when fully healthy last year (CB Cobee Bryant was 1st Team All-B12 despite missing three weeks with injury). The question is whether Leipold did enough to restock a DL that lost all four starters - it's the only inexperienced position group on the team. KU added five transfers along the DL in an attempt to fortify the position.
Thor's projected win total: 5.8
Las Vegas win total: 6
Thor's bet: Pass
Kansas scheduled itself two wins in OOC play, plus a pick 'em home proposition against Illinois. Unfortunately, KU's draw in the Big 12 schedule wasn't as kind. The Jayhawks get the three-highest rated opponents in the conference - Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech - and, in sum, are scheduled to play eight-of-nine teams that I have listed ahead of them in the Big 12 in my power rankings. The most likely outcome here is 6-6, so we have to pass. But we certainly aren't betting against Leipold's track record combined with the nation's most-experienced roster.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Missouri St. | -30.7 | 1.00 | Home |
| 2 | Illinois | -0.8 | 0.50 | Home |
| 3 | Nevada | -18.5 | 0.99 | Away |
| 4 | BYU | -4.4 | 0.65 | Home |
| 5 | Texas | 20.6 | 0.00 | Away |
| 6 | UCF | -0.1 | 0.50 | Home |
| 7 | Oklahoma St. | 3.4 | 0.41 | Away |
| 9 | Oklahoma | 8.1 | 0.22 | Home |
| 10 | Iowa St. | 5.1 | 0.33 | Away |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 4.8 | 0.34 | Home |
| 12 | Kansas St. | 2.7 | 0.45 | Home |
| 13 | Cincinnati | -1.9 | 0.52 | Away |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
BYU had a busy offseason in advance of its move to the Big 12. The Cougars lost three offensive standouts to the NFL Draft - OT Blake Freeland, QB Jaren Hall, and WR Puka Nacua - and also saw a number of key contributors transfer out. So HC Kilani Sitake got busy in the portal, signing 21 transfers en route to 247Sports' No. 20-ranked portal class, several with starting experience. Take the backfield, which imported QB Kedon Slovis (Pitt) and RB Aidan Robbins (UNLV). It's unclear how all the new parts will fit together, but my expectation would be a small dropoff from last year's No. 35 YPG showing.
If that turns out to be the case, there's all kinds of pressure on a defense that ranked No. 93 YPG in 2022 to take a step forward. The defense was so bad that BYU DC Ilaisa Tuiaki resigned after the season - leading to the hiring of Weber State's HC to turn the unit around - while most of the remaining defensive staff was fired. This, in part, led to several defenders transferring out, leading to more portal shopping. BYU looks okay up front, and they have one difference-maker at LB (Ben Bywater). The rest of the LB corps, along with the secondary, could become problematic in the pass-happy Big 12.
Thor's projected win total: 5
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor's bet: Under
BYU is likely to feel the effects of a tougher schedule. During last year's 8-5 campaign, BYU played five Power 5 teams (if you count Notre Dame). This team is about to play 10 over 12 regular season games. BYU has averaged nearly 10 wins per season over the last three years. But unless the glut of transfers coalesces quickly and overachieves, the Cougs are likely getting shut out of bowl season in 2023.
Returning starters: 6 offense, 7 defense
Rarely am I surprised by CFB firing/retention news following a season. But I was legitimately surprised that the Mountaineers decided to bring back HC Neal Brown for a fifth year. Brown's 5-7 finish last year dropped him to 22-25 at WVU. As ESPN's Bill Connelly pointed out, Brown has actually fielded three really good defenses and one good offense over his four years. It's just that, over his first three years when the defense was good, the offense stunk. And last year, when the offense finally turned the corner (No. 49 PPG), the defense imploded (No. 115 in PPG allowed).
We know that WVU's run game is going to be very good in 2023. RB CJ Donaldson is a keeper, and five starters return along an OL that is one of the Big 12's best. My concerns spots are basically everywhere else. New QB1 Garrett Greene wasn't as good as JT Daniels on a per-play basis in limited action last year, and his receiving corps will be mediocre unless multiple unheralded transfers hit. The defense doesn't inspire confidence in a dramatic turnaround. The DL was blown up by defections, and last year's horrid secondary is counting on a similar cast of characters.
Thor's projected win total: 4.3
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor's bet: Under
Because of an ill-fated two-year extension in 2021, Brown's contract runs through 2026. But this feels like the end for him. A Mountaineer roster that is short on talent is about to face Steele's No. 14 SOS. A 1-3 September - totally within the realm of possibility - will have fans calling for Brown's head for the rest of the season. That could make for a long final two months of the season as the roster begins thinking about its future portal prospects with new staff on the way.
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | Penn St. | 22.3 | 0.00 | Away |
| 2 | Duquesne | -27.5 | 1.00 | Home |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | 1.4 | 0.49 | Home |
| 4 | Texas Tech | 8.1 | 0.22 | Home |
| 5 | TCU | 12.3 | 0.13 | Away |
| 7 | Houston | 1.7 | 0.48 | Away |
| 8 | Oklahoma St. | 1.3 | 0.49 | Home |
| 9 | UCF | 8.4 | 0.21 | Away |
| 10 | BYU | -1.2 | 0.51 | Home |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 17.1 | 0.03 | Away |
| 12 | Cincinnati | -3.2 | 0.58 | Home |
| 13 | Baylor | 12.0 | 0.13 | Away |
Returning starters: 5 offense, 7 defense
Like most HC Dana Holgorsen teams, this Cougar outfit has multiple clearly-delineated strengths and multiple clearly-delineated weaknesses. The Cougars have to feel good at QB after importing former Texas Tech QB Donovan Smith. Smith has an outstanding WR corps to throw to. Even after the loss of Tank Dell, Houston arguably goes six-deep in legitimate P5 starting-caliber wideouts. And Smith's blind side will be kept clean by apple-of-the-NFL's-eye LT Patrick Paul. On the other side of the ball, Houston is very strong up front and should have an outstanding pass rush in 2023.
The weaknesses are just as clear. The run game could struggle. Again. Last year's edition finished No. 77 YPG to the passing game's No. 8. A similar discrepancy appears to be in store after RB Alton McCaskill shockingly transferred to Colorado after the spring. There are questions around Paul on the OL, particularly in the run-block department, exacerbating concerns. And though the DL should be strong, the defense as a whole won't be. The LB corps is mediocre, and the secondary - which was No. 121 in pass YPG allowed last year - is by measures worse. Holgo is hoping that portal hits will solve those problems, but that would be an upset.
Thor's projected win total: 4.6
Las Vegas win total: 4.5
Thor's bet: Pass
In a vacuum, you could actually say we're reasonably bullish about this Houston team. The Cougars remain almost smack-dab in the same spot in the power rankings that they finished last season with that fun 8-5 Clayton Tune/Tank Dell team. But last year, Houston only played two P5 teams - Texas Tech and Kansas - out of 13 opponents. This year, the Cougs get nine in the regular season. In addition to a tricky OOC game versus UTSA. Because of the dramatic leap in schedule strength, we see a similar team qualitatively failing to reach the postseason in 2023. (But they're going to be fun to watch and give a few higher-ranked opponents scares in wild shootouts).
| WEEK | OPPONENT | ATL | WIN ODDS | HOME |
| 1 | UTSA | -1.0 | 0.51 | Home |
| 2 | Rice | -8.2 | 0.78 | Away |
| 3 | TCU | 8.1 | 0.22 | Home |
| 4 | Sam Houston St. | -19.6 | 1.00 | Home |
| 5 | Texas Tech | 14.0 | 0.09 | Away |
| 7 | West Virginia | -1.7 | 0.52 | Home |
| 8 | Texas | 19.8 | 0.00 | Home |
| 9 | Kansas St. | 11.9 | 0.14 | Away |
| 10 | Baylor | 12.5 | 0.12 | Away |
| 11 | Cincinnati | -2.6 | 0.55 | Home |
| 12 | Oklahoma St. | 1.9 | 0.48 | Home |
| 13 | UCF | 8.8 | 0.20 | Away |
Returning starters: 3 offense, 6 defense
Cincinnati, only two years removed from a historic CFP run, is starting over. HC Scott Satterfield and an entirely new staff took the reins from former HC Luke Fickell and crew. The Bearcats lost a metric ton of talent to the NFL and outgoing transfers. So Satterfield embarked on a busy offseason filling holes, ultimately signing 21 transfers. Eight of them are currently projected to start. Considering Cincy had a good-but-not-great overall portal haul - No. 38 - that's cause for concern in and of itself.
The offense will look totally different - only the starting center returns from last year's Bearcats. QB Emory Jones brings experience, though it should be noted that each of his last two schools was perfectly happy to see him leave. Everywhere else you look in the starting lineup, it’s either a transfer or an uninspiring holdover. The defense is, by comparison, in much better shape. The DL is the team's strength and should ensure Cincy wins the LOS battle on that side of the ball. But there are only three returning starters in the back-eight, guaranteeing a substantial drop-off from last year's lofty No. 11 ranking in pass YPG allowed.
Thor's projected win total: 5.2
Las Vegas win total: 5.5
Thor's bet: Pass
Satterfield escaped Louisville before the ax came down on him. His honeymoon at Cincinnati may be short. Cincinnati's talent drop-off can be seen in their 26-spot drop in my power rankings since the end of last year. My numbers actually only favor Cincy in two games. But nine games feature adjusted spreads of less than eight points, introducing enormous amounts of variance to a mysterious roster with a new coaching staff that was already forcing us to confront plenty. There's one bit of good news: A schedule that ranks No. 53 in Steele's SOS metrics, one of the P5's breeziest. Even so, we'd lean under if forced to bet. But we're going to pass on account of the unknown.
Thor Nystrom’s Conference Preview Series
Connect with sportsbooks to automatically sync your balances and bets >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
