In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each MAC college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
In this comprehensive breakdown, I'll give you an in-depth overview of each MAC college football team. You'll see the teams' rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections. Previously, we took a look at the rosters and projected win totals for every team in the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC and for all of the independent teams.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
Notes: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicate a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.
2022 win totals final standings:
Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%
System Discrepancies vs. Vegas number:
System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%
Returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense
Toledo is the clear class of the MAC, which has been utterly ransacked by transfer portal defections. By comparison, the Rockets managed to keep most of the band from last year's MAC title outfit together. That includes veteran dual-threat QB Dequan Finn, a three-headed veteran RB monster, a pair of veteran starting WR, and four returning starting OL. Last year's defense ranked No. 12 in passing yards allowed per game, returns all five starters in the secondary. First-team All-MAC LB Dallas Gant also returns. One of the only questions facing Toledo heading into the season will be how the new-look DL holds up - it's replacing three-of-four starters.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 10.4
Las Vegas Win Total: 8.5
Thor's Bet: Over
Toledo is the clear class of the MAC - a huge dropoff behind them. The opening-week game against Illinois is no sure loss. And we have Toledo favored by 8.5-or-more in every other game and by double-digits in 10-of-the-11. Easy over.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Illinois | 7.6 | 0.24 | Away |
| Texas Southern | -26.8 | 1.00 | Home |
| San Jose St. | -13.5 | 0.90 | Home |
| Western Michigan | -23.2 | 1.00 | Home |
| Northern Illinois | -14.0 | 0.91 | Home |
| UMass | -22.7 | 1.00 | Away |
| Ball St. | -11.8 | 0.86 | Away |
| Miami (OH) | -8.2 | 0.78 | Away |
| Buffalo | -16.3 | 0.95 | Home |
| Eastern Michigan | -15.6 | 0.94 | Home |
| Bowling Green | -16.7 | 0.96 | Away |
| Central Michigan | -10.6 | 0.84 | Away |
Returning starters: 9 offense, 6 defense
Kurtis Rourke was PFF's highest-graded QB last year. He tore his ACL and meniscus in mid-November but was in full pads for the spring game. Reports have him on track to start Week 1. Ohio boasts plenty of skill talent around Rourke - RB Sieh Bangura and WR Sam Wiglusz are both difference-makers. The OL appears mediocre, but Ohio has typically been able to work around that in the past. The defense coughed up a MAC-worst 6.2 YPP, mostly because the pass D was awful. The solid run defense could regress with only one starter returning up front, though the LB unit will be solid. The secondary should improve, however.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 7.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
If Rourke is healthy, Ohio is the one team in the MAC that absolutely has a puncher's chance to take down Toledo. But with Rourke's status up in the air, it's much harder to take a preseason position on this team. Particularly when your system spits out a win total... that falls directly on Las Vegas’s number. We're passing.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| LIU | -18.0 | 0.99 | Home |
| San Diego St. | 5.6 | 0.32 | Away |
| Florida Atlantic | 6.6 | 0.29 | Away |
| Iowa St. | 10.4 | 0.17 | Home |
| Bowling Green | -7.9 | 0.77 | Away |
| Kent St. | -17.2 | 0.97 | Home |
| Northern Illinois | -1.0 | 0.51 | Away |
| Western Michigan | -14.4 | 0.91 | Home |
| Miami (OH) | -4.3 | 0.65 | Home |
| Buffalo | -1.9 | 0.52 | Away |
| Central Michigan | -6.3 | 0.70 | Home |
| Akron | -6.4 | 0.71 | Away |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 9 defense
Miami's offense fell off a cliff last year because starting QB Brett Gabbert was limited to four games with a broken collarbone. Without Gabbert, the offense couldn't pass, and it became a one-dimensional slog. With Gabbert back, the Redhawks' attack has the potential to have teeth again. I say potential because the rest of the unit is something of an unknown - more than half the other starters are being replaced. The defense is what rallied the Redhawks to a bowl game down the stretch last fall. The strength was up front - No. 43 in the nation with 135.9 rushing YPG allowed - and will be again with four-of-six starters returning in the front-six.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.9
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
My adjusted win total is smack-dab on the Las Vegas number. Miami is a far-more high-variance team than that might suggest, however - between Gabbert's return and unproven groups at WR and DB. If you're particularly bullish about Miami, you can buy a ticket for the RedHawks to win the MAC East at better than 3-to-1 odds. As for the win total, it's a pass for us.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Miami (FL) | 22.2 | 0.00 | Away |
| UMass | -12.1 | 0.87 | Away |
| Cincinnati | 13.7 | 0.10 | Away |
| Delaware St. | -16.1 | 0.95 | Home |
| Kent St. | -10.8 | 0.84 | Away |
| Bowling Green | -9.9 | 0.82 | Home |
| Western Michigan | -7.9 | 0.77 | Away |
| Toledo | 8.2 | 0.22 | Home |
| Ohio | 4.3 | 0.35 | Away |
| Akron | -8.2 | 0.78 | Home |
| Buffalo | -5.5 | 0.68 | Home |
| Ball St. | -1.2 | 0.51 | Away |
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Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
Thomas Hammock's Huskies are the strangest team in the MAC. In 2021, they won the conference in the flukiest way possible, going 9-5 with one of the nation's least-experienced rosters by winning six-of-eight regular season games by single-digits, most of them come-from-behind victories. Last year, NIU returned 18 starters and was seen as a MAC frontrunner - but they flatlined, in part due to a rash of devastating injuries, going 3-9. This year, QB Rocky Lombardi - limited to four games last year - is back, as is stud WR Trayvon Rudolph, who was lost for last season to a non-contact injury before it started. NIU also returns its entire OL and a loaded backfield. Defensively, most of the front seven are intact. Can the secondary hold up, and can the key players stay healthy this season?
Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.3
Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
Thor's Bet: Over
As always, the Huskies remain an allusive, high-variance proposition. If they stay healthy and everything breaks right, you could see this team contending for the conference title. If the injury bug hits again, and if the inexperienced secondary doesn't come together as hoped, things will go the other way quickly, and Hammock's seat is going to get hot very quickly. We're tentatively bullish and buying the dip on NIU.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Boston College | 9.1 | 0.20 | Away |
| Southern Illinois | -14.5 | 0.92 | Home |
| Nebraska | 17.8 | 0.02 | Away |
| Tulsa | -3.8 | 0.62 | Home |
| Toledo | 14.0 | 0.09 | Away |
| Akron | -3.7 | 0.61 | Away |
| Ohio | 1.0 | 0.49 | Home |
| Eastern Michigan | -3.4 | 0.59 | Home |
| Central Michigan | 1.0 | 0.49 | Away |
| Ball St. | -3.6 | 0.60 | Home |
| Western Michigan | -10.9 | 0.85 | Home |
| Kent St. | -9.9 | 0.82 | Away |
Returning starters: 4 offense, 9 defense
HC Jim McElwain had his first losing season out of four at CMU in 2022. The good news, turning the page to this year, is CMU is strong along the lines and has one of the best defenses in the MAC, with a very salty LB corps. But McElwain will have his work cut out for him cobbling together a cohesive offensive plan. He has a pair of plus-athletes at QB, but both have, to this point, scared the CMU sideline more than the defense when putting the ball in the air. And with RB Lew Nichols off to the NFL and seven-of-the-top-eight receivers from last year gone, the skill cupboard appears to be bare besides.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 4.9
Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
Thor's Bet: Under
Brutal non-con slate, with CMU adjusted 'dogs of 14-points-or-more in three of four. The Chips will likely enter MAC play 1-3, needing to go 5-3 to get over this number. My system calls for 3.9 MAC wins, a 4-4 conference finish that feels more realistic in lieu of circumstances. Unless a QB emerges quickly and multiple skill players make leaps, this feels like a rebuilding year - we're going under.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Michigan St. | 17.6 | 0.02 | Away |
| New Hampshire | -13.7 | 0.90 | Home |
| Notre Dame | 34.1 | 0.00 | Away |
| South Alabama | 14.3 | 0.09 | Away |
| Eastern Michigan | -2.6 | 0.55 | Home |
| Buffalo | 1.9 | 0.48 | Away |
| Akron | -5.9 | 0.69 | Home |
| Ball St. | 0.8 | 0.50 | Away |
| Northern Illinois | -1.0 | 0.51 | Home |
| Western Michigan | -6.0 | 0.70 | Away |
| Ohio | 6.3 | 0.30 | Away |
| Toledo | 10.6 | 0.16 | Home |
Returning starters: 4 offense, 7 defense
The college careers of starting QB Taylor Powell and studs OG Sidy Sow and EDGE Jose Ramirez are now over. But Eastern Michigan is one of the G5's best-coached teams, figuring it out year after year. The offense has two centerpiece players in RB Samson Evans and WR Tanner Knue but will cobble things together with a bunch of unknowns around them. The defense could be improved, despite Ramirez's loss, with seven starters returning. That includes six of the back seven. The pass defense was already a strength of the unit and should be even better in 2023. EMU will need to find a replacement for Ramirez's pass-rushing machinations. The Eagles also have one of the G5's better special team units and will again with both specialists returning.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.6
Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
Thor's Bet: Under
Over the summer, I thought I was pretty bullish on the Eagles relative to traditional mathematical models. Considering how little the Eagles had returning, I took a fairly bullish stance that EMU would only take a minor qualitative step back. My system's win total for the Eagles, 6.6, turned out to be almost identical to the Vegas opener of 6.5. I was comfortable with that. In the intervening months, the market has gone ballistic on EMU, betting them up to 7.5 across the market. I think that's going too far. I'm the biggest Chris Creighton fan. But I've been given no choice but to fade the 2023 Eagles.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Howard | -12.9 | 0.89 | Home |
| Minnesota | 23.9 | 0.00 | Away |
| UMass | -12.8 | 0.88 | Home |
| Jacksonville St. | -4.2 | 0.65 | Away |
| Central Michigan | 2.6 | 0.45 | Away |
| Ball St. | -1.9 | 0.52 | Home |
| Kent St. | -12.1 | 0.87 | Home |
| Northern Illinois | 3.4 | 0.41 | Away |
| Western Michigan | -9.2 | 0.80 | Home |
| Toledo | 15.6 | 0.06 | Away |
| Akron | -5.0 | 0.66 | Home |
| Buffalo | 2.5 | 0.46 | Away |
Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense
Ball State's offense - which paired one of the nation's quickest, most risk-averse passing attacks with one of its most physical rushing attacks - lost starting QB John Paddock (Illinois) and RB Carson Steele (UCLA) to the transfer portal. HC Mike Neu regrouped by adding well-traveled QB Layne Hatcher and standout ex-Kent State RB Marquez Cooper. Ball State has two good TE, which will allow them to play bully ball in the MAC, but the WR corps is bad, so the passing attack could be a problem. Last year's defense ranked No. 19 in yards per pass attempt, but three starters in the secondary were lost to graduation. The run defense wasn't as good, but the LB corps is now the undisputed strength of this defense.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 5.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
Ball State scheduled itself two losses out of the gate with road trips to SEC opponents. The schedule gets far more manageable from here, with my system only installing Ball State as an underdog of more than four points in one of the remaining 10 games. Much of Ball State's 2023 fortunes will come down to the quality of the QB play and how well the new-look secondary comes together. My number falls smack-dab on Las Vegas's number, so we're bystanders in the futures market.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Kentucky | 27.9 | 0.00 | Away |
| Georgia | 45.0 | 0.00 | Away |
| Indiana St. | -12.5 | 0.88 | Home |
| Georgia Southern | -0.4 | 0.50 | Home |
| Western Michigan | -5.2 | 0.67 | Away |
| Eastern Michigan | 1.9 | 0.48 | Away |
| Toledo | 11.8 | 0.14 | Home |
| Central Michigan | -0.8 | 0.50 | Home |
| Bowling Green | -3.4 | 0.59 | Away |
| Northern Illinois | 3.6 | 0.40 | Away |
| Kent St. | -11.8 | 0.86 | Home |
| Miami (OH) | 1.2 | 0.49 | Home |
Returning starters: 5 offense, 5 defense
Last year's Bulls finished 7-6 by beating Georgia Southern in the bowl game. But Buffalo was lucky to get there after losing to an FCS team early in the year, facing a procession of opponents' backup QBs during the regular season. This year, only 10 starters return. Buffalo does have an experienced backfield and a very deep RB room. But the WR corps looks weak, and both sides of the line of scrimmage are below average in the MAC. Just as the backfield is the strength of Buffalo's offense, the back end is the strength of Buffalo's defense. The LB room is very strong, and the secondary is one of the MAC's best.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 5.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Under
The Bulls have a tricky OOC slate - my system installs Buffalo as 'dogs in three of four. If Buffalo doesn't split those games, it's going to be very, very difficult to go over this number, with my system calling for a 4-4 record in MAC play (2-2 in the OOC and 4-4 in MAC play would still send the Bulls under). We're fading the Bulls one year after their record was inflated by fluky circumstances.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Wisconsin | 29.7 | 0.00 | Away |
| Fordham | -13.6 | 0.90 | Home |
| Liberty | 1.9 | 0.48 | Home |
| Louisiana | 8.9 | 0.20 | Away |
| Akron | -1.5 | 0.52 | Away |
| Central Michigan | -1.9 | 0.52 | Home |
| Bowling Green | -7.5 | 0.76 | Home |
| Kent St. | -7.7 | 0.76 | Away |
| Toledo | 16.3 | 0.05 | Away |
| Ohio | 1.9 | 0.48 | Home |
| Miami (OH) | 5.5 | 0.32 | Away |
| Eastern Michigan | -2.5 | 0.54 | Home |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense
I'll keep saying it: I'm bullish on HC Joe Moorhead at Akron. The Zips only went 2-10 last year, but we're starting to see the signs of a turnaround. Far less than quit down the stretch, Akron was 2-0-1 ATS over their last three games with one-possession losses to EMU and Buffalo and a 30-point blowout win over NIU. JoeMo's offense is already super-fun, with exciting dual-threat QB DJ Irons, former all-world recruit RB Lorenzo Lingard, and ex-LSU transfer WR Alex Adams, who broke out last year. A defense that coughed up 33.5 PPG last year dug around the lower levels for standouts willing to transfer up. It's a strategy that could lead to incremental improvement - but make no mistake, this will remain an offense-first team.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 4.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5
Thor's Bet: Over
My system and I are banking not only on Akron's late-season surge having carrying power but on JoeMo's offensive track record. In a down year for the MAC, with a conference full of rotten defenses, Akron should light up scoreboards this year. They're going to get lit up themselves. But it's not asking too much to ask them to come out on top of four shootouts (only three with the freebie FCS win built-in).
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Temple | 9.8 | 0.19 | Away |
| Morgan St. | -9.1 | 0.80 | Home |
| Kentucky | 31.0 | 0.00 | Away |
| Indiana | 10.5 | 0.16 | Away |
| Buffalo | 1.5 | 0.48 | Home |
| Northern Illinois | 3.7 | 0.39 | Home |
| Central Michigan | 5.9 | 0.31 | Away |
| Bowling Green | -0.3 | 0.50 | Away |
| Kent St. | -8.3 | 0.78 | Home |
| Miami (OH) | 8.2 | 0.22 | Away |
| Eastern Michigan | 5.0 | 0.34 | Away |
| Ohio | 6.4 | 0.29 | Home |
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Returning starters: 8 offense, 5 defense
Last year's paint-by-numbers offense figures to tread water, with ex-Mizzou and Indiana QB Connor Bazelak playing the role of Matt McDonald. Most of last year's other cast of characters return around Bazelak, and the risk-averse, quick-pass game BGU prefers will hopefully have the effect of saving Baz from himself on the turnover front. Though last year's defense coughed up 32.5 PPG - No. 113 - it was T-No. 13 in sacks, mostly because of DL Karl Brooks, who is now in the NFL. The defense has little experience returning, has new co-coordinators, and the only thing good it did last season - generate heat - it won't be nearly as effective in 2023. This unit could get trampled.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 3.7
Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
Thor's Bet: Under
My system favors Bowling Green in a mere two games. In three others, where BGU is installed as an adjusted underdog, we can more or less call them coinflips. They're going to have to either win all five or else spring an upset or two in the others, to go over. I don't love where the roster is at. I have to go under the number.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| Liberty | 12.2 | 0.13 | Away |
| Eastern Illinois | -7.6 | 0.76 | Home |
| Michigan | 48.5 | 0.00 | Away |
| Ohio | 7.9 | 0.23 | Home |
| Georgia Tech | 13.3 | 0.11 | Away |
| Miami (OH) | 9.9 | 0.18 | Away |
| Buffalo | 7.5 | 0.24 | Away |
| Akron | 0.3 | 0.50 | Home |
| Ball St. | 3.4 | 0.41 | Home |
| Kent St. | -3.3 | 0.58 | Away |
| Toledo | 16.7 | 0.04 | Home |
| Western Michigan | -0.4 | 0.50 | Away |
Returning starters: 8 offense, 2 defense
Western Michigan has a new staff, and that new staff faces a stiff task in Year 1 with a thin roster low on talent that lost key contributors like RB Sean Tyler and WR Corey Crooms in the portal. WMU is counting on transfers of its own, like ex-ODU QB Hayden Wolff and ex-Virginia Tech RB Keshawn King, to keep the 2023 offense moving. While last year's offense was dreadful, the defense hovered around FBS average. That defense is likely in store for significant regression with only two starters returning and a new staff installing its schemes.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 2.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 4.5
Thor's Bet: Under
The OOC slate features three roadies at P5 opponents, and WMU also must travel to Toledo, Ohio, EMU, and NIU. That fact alone makes this number extremely surprising - if the Broncos simply lose the seven road games I just mentioned, they'd need to win all five home games to go over. Easy under for us.
| Opponent | ATL | Win Odds | Home |
| St. Francis (PA) | -5.7 | 0.69 | Home |
| Syracuse | 25.6 | 0.00 | Away |
| Iowa | 33.1 | 0.00 | Away |
| Toledo | 23.2 | 0.00 | Away |
| Ball St. | 5.2 | 0.33 | Home |
| Mississippi St. | 29.6 | 0.00 | Away |
| Miami (OH) | 7.9 | 0.23 | Home |
| Ohio | 14.4 | 0.09 | Away |
| Eastern Michigan | 9.2 | 0.20 | Away |
| Central Michigan | 6.0 | 0.30 | Home |
| Northern Illinois | 10.9 | 0.15 | Away |
| Bowling Green | 0.4 | 0.50 | Home |
Returning starters: 0 offense, 4 defense
The HC Sean Lewis era - consistently entertaining and competitive - has come to a close. In the first season without him, a goal should not be to finish as the MAC's worst team. Kent State finished just ahead of UMass for dead last in my preseason FBS power rankings. After Lewis' departure to become OC of Colorado, KSU was devastated by a rash of transfers, including starters QB Collin Schlee (UCLA), RB Marquez Cooper (Ball State), WR Devontez Walker (North Carolina), WR Dante Cephas (Penn State), WR Ja'Shaun Poke (West Virginia), OT Savion Washington (Colorado), IOL Jack Bailey (Colorado), OT Marcellus Marshall (UCF), DL Adin Huntington (Louisiana-Monroe), S Dean Clark (Fresno State), and S SAF JoJo Evans (FIU). In another reality, the 2023 Kent State Golden Flashes could have been a good team. In this one, they have the least returning starters in the nation with a brand-new staff that has precious little experience itself.
Thor's Projected Win Total: 2.1
Las Vegas Win Total: 2.5
Thor's Bet: Pass
New HC Kenni Burns, PJ Fleck's former RB coach at Minnesota, is in for a trying season with this slapped-together roster. We lean under. But with how down the MAC is and with an FCS opponent on the schedule, we're too close to the margins here. There's better value elsewhere on the board.
Thor Nystrom's Conference Preview Series
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