Thor Nystrom’s SEC Preview & Win Totals Bets (2023)

In this comprehensive breakdown, I’ll bring you an in-depth overview of each college football team in the SEC. You’ll get a closer look at the teams’ rosters, projected win totals, and betting strategies based on those projections.

I’ll provide crucial insights, from a dominant Georgia Bulldogs roster to an Alabama team who may be facing a setback. Could this be the year that Alabama fails to reach double-digit regular-season wins? Or will LSU, having seemingly closed the gap on Alabama’s stronghold, offer a darkhorse national title run?

In the world of sports betting, it’s not always about who wins or loses, but by how much. After taking into account the returning starters and recent developments, I will share my projections that may differ from the popular opinion (and the lines provided by sportsbooks).

SEC Preview & Win Totals Bets

Note: An asterisk (*) in the schedule tables indicates a neutral-site game. ATL adjusted spreads and win expectancies in the tables below are from the perspective of the team in question.

Here are my stats from last summer's win total series:

2022 win totals final standings:

Thor's picks: 37-31-2 | 54.4%
System's picks: 69-53-9 | 56.6%

System Discrepancies vs Vegas number:

Same number as Vegas: 7
System 0.1-0.5: 31-20 | 60.8%
System 0.6-1: 16-27-1 | 35.5%
System 1.1-1.5: 12-4 | 75.0%
System 1.6-2.0: 8-2-1 | 80.0%
System 2.1+: 2-0 | 100%

System Breakdown:

System 0.1-1: 47-47-1 | 50.0%
System: 1.1+: 22-6-1 | 78.6%
System: +1.5: 10-2-1 | 83.3%

1. Georgia Bulldogs

Returning Starters: 6 offense, 7 defense

Kirby Smart left Alabama and has turned Georgia into a sort of Crimson Tide-hybrid: His teams play like Nick Saban's did before Saban hired Lane Kiffin. But Smart seems to be - is it heresy to suggest? - taking things to a place not even Saban could. The last two years, Georgia has lost eight first-rounders, five Day 2 picks, and 12 Day 3 picks. And yet the Bulldogs are still rightly favored to three-peat as national title winners. And that's only in part because they probably still have the nation's most-talented roster.

The offensive and defensive lines, along with the secondary, are all indisputably top-three units in the country. The offensive skills are loaded. The linebacking corps might be the best in the country. This team has two questions, and two questions only: 1) Can Carson Beck emerge as Stetson Bennett's replacement (and will Brock Vandagriff save the day if Beck can't?), and 2) After two consecutive national titles, will we finally see some complacency start to set in? At this number, we have no margin for error - one loss is an under.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 11.7
Las Vegas Win Total: 11.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

Last year, my system called for a ridiculous 11.7 regular-season wins. It was convinced the Bulldogs were going undefeated, and in a strong position to repeat. Broken record this year: My system has spit out an identical 11.7 wins. Georgia, once again, has hit the schedule lottery: The Bulldogs' schedule ranks No. 56 in Phil Steele's preseason metrics - the easiest SOS in the entire SEC. Georgia plays a breezy non-con schedule and avoids both Alabama and LSU in the SEC. Margins are too close for me to wager... but I definitely wouldn't bet against Georgia.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
UT-Martin	Georgia	-55.5	1
Ball St.	Georgia	-44.1	1
South Carolina	Georgia	-22.9	1
UAB	Georgia	-42.8	1
Georgia	Auburn	-15.0	0.93
Kentucky	Georgia	-18.9	0.994
Georgia	Vanderbilt	-33.0	1
Georgia*	Florida	-18.1	0.99
Missouri	Georgia	-23.0	1
Ole Miss	Georgia	-15.5	0.93
Georgia	Tennessee	-10.6	0.84
Georgia	Georgia Tech	-32.8	1

5. LSU Tigers

Returning Starters: 8 offense, 7 defense

Brian Kelly's first season in Baton Rouge was a wild ride. You had the jumbo contract. The fake accent. The highly-uncomfortable recruiting videos. The embarrassing Week 1 loss in primetime to Florida State. The Kayshon Boutte transfer rumors. Just when it seemed like the roof was going to cave in on Kelly, LSU ripped off a 9-1 record over their next 10 games. Scary thing is, Kelly was building for 2023, not 2022. This - right here, the 2023 Tigers - is a team he can cook with.

The offense returns almost everyone of note but Boutte and WR Jaray Jenkins, but the WR corps should be better because both Boutte and Jenkins were mediocre last year. Importantly, WR1 Malik Nabers is back, and multiple impact transfer portal additions were imported at the positon. The defense lost a few more starters to the NFL, but none were irreplaceable. A superstar returns on that side of the ball in terror OLB Harold Perkins. Both the offense and defense look improved, and Kelly should be settled in heading into Year 2. This is a legit CFP contender and darkhorse national title winner.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 9.8
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

The opener against Florida State and the road game against Alabama are the swing games - with the road game against Ole Miss the other tough matchup. LSU is a double-digit favorite in eight of nine the rest of the schedule (-8.9 vs. A&M being the other). Out of all the sides I'm passing on in the SEC, the "LSU over" would be my strongest lean. But there isn't enough value at this number to pull the trigger with so much value available on the rest of the CFB totals board.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
LSU*	Florida St.	2.6	0.45
Grambling	LSU	-49.5	1
LSU	Mississippi St.	-11.8	0.86
Arkansas	LSU	-14.4	0.91
LSU	Ole Miss	-4.3	0.65
LSU	Missouri	-11.9	0.86
Auburn	LSU	-14.5	0.92
Army	LSU	-34.2	1
LSU	Alabama	2.7	0.45
Florida	LSU	-14.8	0.92
Georgia St.	LSU	-35.5	1
Texas A&M	LSU	-8.9	0.8

6. Alabama Crimson Tide

Returning Starters: 4 offense, 5 defense

Is... Alabama starting a slow slide backwards? The Tide have irrefutably been replaced by Georgia atop the SEC's pecking order. That much is clear. But the Crimson Tide also will begin the season outside my overall top-5. Alabama is currently mired with quarterback questions and a non-inspiring collection of skill talent. HC Nick Saban brought in Notre Dame OC Tommy Rees to attempt to keep the post-Bryce Young offense humming. Then Saban and Rees imported Rees' former Irish pupil QB Tyler Buchner after the in-house replacement options for Young badly struggled in the spring.

I'm less bullish on Buchner than Rees appears to be. Notre Dame couldn't wait to replace him in the portal this offseason. The offense appears to both be built on a shaky foundation and has a limited ceiling. I'm a little more bullish on the defense, which will have one of the nation's best cornerback duos, led by CB Kool-Aid McKinstry. However, it's difficult to project the unit - which lost stud EDGE Will Anderson and nickel Brian Branch (along with DT Byron Young, LB Henry To’oTo’o, and safeties Jordan Battle and DeMarco Hellams) - to be upgraded overall. Treading water would be an admirable goal. That's not going to be enough for Alabama to prevent a backslide with the offense extremely likely to be worse.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 9.6
Las Vegas Win Total: 10.5
Thor's Bet: Under

My system is calling for 9.6 wins for Alabama. I'll go further: The Crimson Tide do not reach double-digit regular season wins this year. Against Phil Steele's No. 8 strength of schedule, with a down roster by Alabama standards, this is the year to fade the Tide against an objectively bloated number.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Middle Tennessee	Alabama	-38.8	1
Texas	Alabama	-2.2	0.53
Alabama	South Florida	-32.1	1
Ole Miss	Alabama	-9.5	0.81
Alabama	Mississippi St.	-11.5	0.86
Alabama	Texas A&M	-3.3	0.58
Arkansas	Alabama	-14.0	0.91
Tennessee	Alabama	-9.3	0.8
LSU	Alabama	-2.7	0.55
Alabama	Kentucky	-7.8	0.77
Chattanooga	Alabama	-49.0	1
Alabama	Auburn	-8.3	0.78

15. Texas A&M Aggies

Returning Starters: 7 offense, 8 defense

You may not remember it, but the Aggies actually had the nation's No. 1 passing defense while finishing No. 22 in scoring defense last year. The problem was everything else. The front seven got pushed around - the first time a Jimbo Fisher team had ever allowed over 170 YPG rushing... and they coughed up 208.8! - and the offense was a catastrophe. Can the offense and run defense be fixed in one offseason? If both can, this'll be a rags-to-riches story. Perhaps not a feel-good one, as Bobby Petrino and DJ Durkin are the two men responsible for fixing those problems - but we digress.

Petrino and Durkin both have all the talent they need for their respective tasks - this isn't mission impossible. A&M's starting offense is littered with sophomores and juniors who were former top-15 recruits at their respective positions. Offensive success tends to follow Petrino - he's going to improve this unit, we just don't yet know by how much (that'll determine A&M's 2023 ceiling). Durkin is in a similar boat. Year before last, A&M signed six of the top 10 consensus defensive line recruits in the nation, which had never been done before. This year, six-of-seven starters in the front-seven return. The run defense will be better - by how much is another factor that could swing the outcome of a game or two.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 8.7
Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
Thor's Bet: Over

Interestingly, my win total for A&M is identical to what my system spit out last summer. Obviously, the Aggies greatly underwhelmed, due to a confluence of devastating injuries, inexperience, and poor play-calling. But it's more plausible that last year was an aberration than a new rule. Between the talent on hand and Petrino's history of offensive success, I'm banking on a bounceback to previous norms for this proud program. I say A&M finishes 9-3.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
New Mexico	Texas A&M	-39.0	1
Texas A&M	Miami (FL)	-4.5	0.66
Louisiana-Monroe	Texas A&M	-38.2	1
Auburn	Texas A&M	-7.8	0.77
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	-6.0	0.7
Texas A&M*	Arkansas	-5.5	0.68
Texas A&M	Tennessee	1.6	0.48
South Carolina	Texas A&M	-10.6	0.84
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	1.5	0.48
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	-11.5	0.86
Abilene Christian	Texas A&M	-44.0	1
Texas A&M	LSU	8.9	0.2

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16. Tennessee Volunteers

Returning Starters: 5 offense, 7 defense

The Vols led the nation in total offense and scoring offense last year and have a ready-made replacement for QB Hendon Hooker in Joe Milton. The skill group is full of diverse weapons. The offense line is experienced. The unit, entering Year 3 under HC Josh Heupel, is well-versed in running Heupel's aggressive, option-based, breakneck-tempo scheme that is next to impossible for opposing defenses to prepare for.

Last year's Tennessee team had one fatal flaw, and it'll be interesting to see to what degree that has been addressed in 2023: The Vols' pass defense was horrific. Any competent throwing team could return fire with Tennessee, leading to wild shootouts. The good news is the same as the bad news: Eight defensive backs with starting experience return. The run defense, already strong, is going to be again with plenty of experience returning and former BYU standout LB Keenan Pili joining the fun this season.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 9.0
Las Vegas Win Total: 9.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

Tennessee has four coin-flip games and a likely loss coming against Georgia. That accounts for my system's 9-3 projection. Go 3-1 in those coin-flip games, and the Vols are very, very likely going over. If they go 1-3 in them, they're guaranteed not to. My system leans under. But too much is up in the air for me to make a referendum.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Virginia	Tennessee*	-21.2	1
Austin Peay	Tennessee	-44.0	1
Tennessee	Florida	-2.7	0.55
UTSA	Tennessee	-16.3	0.95
South Carolina	Tennessee	-10.0	0.82
Texas A&M	Tennessee	-1.6	0.52
Tennessee	Alabama	-9.3	0.8
Tennessee	Kentucky	-1.5	0.52
Connecticut	Tennessee	-29.8	1
Tennessee	Missouri	-5.3	0.67
Georgia	Tennessee	10.6	0.16
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	-24.4	1

17. Ole Miss Rebels

Returning Starters: 9 offense, 7 defense

Lane Kiffin, the Portal King, was back at it this offseason. Per 247Sports, Kiffin signed the No. 6 portal class, which included QB Spencer Sanders and star UTSA WR Zakhari Franklin. This Rebels team not only has star power - RB Quinshon Judkins may be the best running back in the nation - but it suddenly has some of the best depth in the nation. That's especially critical for a team that plays at amongst the fastest tempos of any team in the country. The rushing attack will remain one of the nation's most vaunted. Can the Rebs get more out of the passing attack?

There's legitimate hope on that front. QB Jaxson Dart struggled last season, but the former ballyhooed recruit looked much improved in the spring. And Kiffin brought in a premium insurance policy in longtime Oklahoma State starter Spencer Sanders (if you're confused why Sanders signed with Ole Miss, you aren't alone - I heard a few coaches on the Rebs staff have privately mused curiosity over the decision... not that they're complaining). On defense, former Alabama DC Pete Golding replaces last season’s co-DCs Maurice Crum and Chris Partridge, the duo who oversaw a unit that finished a disappointing No. 74 (albeit on the other side of a track-race offense). Golding will shift the unit from a 3-2-6 alignment into his trademark 4-2-5 scheme. Expect improvement.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 7.8
Las Vegas Win Total: 7.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

The Rebels' talent level continues to rise each season under Lane Kiffin. But the Rebels' were dealt another brutal scheduling hand, tempering expectations for a true breakthrough year. My system believes Ole Miss will go 1-2 between the brutal road trips to Alabama and Georgia and the home game against LSU. But even if they do steal a win from that troika, road games at Tulane, Auburn, and Mississippi State are tricky, and home affairs with Arkansas and A&M are not sure things. We have to pass at this number.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Mercer	Ole Miss	-43.0	1
Ole Miss	Tulane	-7.1	0.74
Georgia Tech	Ole Miss	-24.4	1
Ole Miss	Alabama	9.5	0.19
LSU	Ole Miss	4.3	0.35
Arkansas	Ole Miss	-7.0	0.73
Ole Miss	Auburn	-1.8	0.52
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	-24.3	1
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	-1.5	0.52
Ole Miss	Georgia	15.5	0.07
Louisiana-Monroe	Ole Miss	-37.5	1
Ole Miss	Mississippi St.	-5.0	0.66

21. Kentucky Wildcats

Returning Starters: 10 offense, 5 defense

Kentucky is going to look much different this fall, with QB Devin Leary and RB Ray Davis swapping in for Will Levis and Chris Rodriguez in the backfield. Call me a heretic, but I think the Wildcats improved at those two spots. In sum, returning OC Liam Coen - who spent last year as the LA Rams' OC - has 10 returning starters on offense to work with. Kentucky's offense is going to be closer to its 2021 heyday (32.3 PPG) than last year's debacle (20.4).

The defense has finished top-25 in four-of-five seasons and has a shot to do it again. The front seven will be strong so long as major injuries aren't suffered at linebacker - depth is a question there unless someone emerges in camp. Kentucky's safeties are very good. How good the defense ultimately is may come down to the CB room. It's inexperienced, but it's entirely in the mold of how HC Mark Stoops wants to play on the outside, with tall, long athletes who get their hands on you off the line.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 7.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Over

This Kentucky roster is better than people think. And the schedule also lines up pretty well for the Wildcats. My system has them favored in their first five games, four of them by 16 points or more. There's a strong chance Kentucky will be 6-1 heading into coin-flip games against Tennessee and Mississippi State. After hosting Alabama, two more coin-flip games close out the schedule (South Carolina and Louisville). The built-in fast-start means we're only going to need one or two of those coin-flips to go our way to go over this number.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Ball St.	Kentucky	-27.3	1
Eastern Kentucky	Kentucky	-39.5	1
Akron	Kentucky	-30.8	1
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	-16.4	0.95
Florida	Kentucky	-3.6	0.6
Kentucky	Georgia	18.9	0.006
Missouri	Kentucky	-6.2	0.7
Tennessee	Kentucky	1.5	0.48
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	-1.6	0.52
Alabama	Kentucky	7.8	0.23
Kentucky	South Carolina	-1.6	0.52
Kentucky	Louisville	-1.1	0.51

24. Arkansas Razorbacks

Returning Starters: 4 offense, 6 defense

Arkansas returns one of the best backfields in America with QB KJ Jefferson and RB Rocket Sanders. Only eight other starters return, and the schemes on both sides of the ball are changing. New OC Dan Enos' offense will attempt to complement what was already a nasty run offense with some vestige of a passing game by infusing more 12-personnel and RPO concepts into the scheme. The big question is whether OL guru HC Sam Pittman can get a new-look line to coalesce quickly.

Last year's defense, the last helmed by former DC Barry Odom, ditched the "rush-three, drop-eight" ethos he had popularized for a four-man front and far more blitzing. What worked: The Hogs went from worst-to-first in the SEC in blitz rate. What didn't: Everything else. The defense was horrid. Arkansas was extremely aggressive in the transfer portal - ranking No. 11 in 247's rankings - and seems to have fixed its depth issue, which cropped up in a major way when injuries hit last year. This year's "4-3 Over" schema will be more straightforward, less aggressive, and almost assuredly more effective. Can't be worse.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 7.1
Las Vegas Win Total: 7
Thor's Bet: Pass

I found this Arkansas team one of the hardest to project in the SEC. One thing the Hogs have going for them? A forgiving schedule, with Phil Steele's No. 38 SOS. True to the Vegas number, my system installs Arkansas as underdogs in five games, favs in seven. But health and continuity is going to be important for a team that didn't have it last year, with my system showing spreads of a TD or less in exactly half the games on the schedule-too much variance in play to bet this number.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Western Carolina	Arkansas	-39.0	1
Kent St.	Arkansas	-37.3	1
Brigham Young	Arkansas	-11.4	0.86
Arkansas	LSU	14.4	0.09
Texas A&M	Arkansas*	5.5	0.32
Arkansas	Ole Miss	7.0	0.27
Arkansas	Alabama	14.0	0.09
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	-6.7	0.72
Arkansas	Florida	2.0	0.47
Auburn	Arkansas	-3.0	0.57
Florida International	Arkansas	-33.6	1
Missouri	Arkansas	-5.9	0.69

25. Auburn Tigers

Returning Starters: 8 offense, 9 defense

Much-needed change arrives after last season's 5-7 debacle. That's led by the troika of HC Hugh Freeze, OC Phillip Montgomery, and DC Ron Roberts, and buttressed by a top-5 transfer portal class. Both Freeze and Montgomery are known for running extremely high-tempo offenses, and we're going to see that immediately. What Auburn has going for it is strong RB and TE rooms, and what should be a solid OL. The question is the passing game. Will Robby Ashford or Peyton Thorne start? And will whoever wins that job have a decent WR corps to throw to? The recruiting of that position languished under former HC Bryan Harsin.

Last year's defense imploded to No. 97 in scoring defense. The good news is this secondary is going to be very, very good. There are more questions along the front seven, which is counting on true freshmen and JUCO transfers to win starting gigs and play big roles. If everything breaks right, the upside is there, but the depth might not be. If everything doesn't break right, this is going to be the team's kryptonite (along with, potentially, the passing offense).

Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.9
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

If there's one saving grace, it could be this: In Freeze's first seasons as a head coach, respectively, he's 10-3 (Arkansas State; 2011), 7-6 (Ole Miss; 2012), and 8-5 (Liberty; 2019). He isn't a "hit the reset button in Year 0" guys. But Freeze faces a challenge here, facing Phil Steele's No. 11 preseason SOS. In that 2012 year at Ole Miss, Freeze's Rebels finished 6-6 in the regular season before winning a bowl game. That could be this Auburn team's destiny. But with seven wins very much in play, and this number presenting us with a coin-flip, we're going to pass.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Massachusetts	Auburn	-37.8	1
Auburn	California	-8.2	0.78
Samford	Auburn	-38.5	1
Auburn	Texas A&M	7.8	0.23
Auburn	Georgia	20.1	0.002
Auburn	LSU	14.5	0.08
Ole Miss	Auburn	1.8	0.48
Mississippi St.	Auburn	-6.5	0.71
Auburn	Vanderbilt	-15.2	0.93
Auburn	Arkansas	3.0	0.43
New Mexico St.	Auburn	-30.9	1
Alabama	Auburn	8.3	0.22

27. Florida Gators

Returning Starters: 6 offense, 5 defense

HC Billy Napier enters Year 2 with his system in place. But a daunting challenge awaits him. Florida is one of the least-experienced teams in the Power 5, and they're about to play a gauntlet schedule. In replacing QB Anthony Richardson, Napier first targeted Tulane QB Michael Pratt in the portal. When Pratt rejected his overtures, Napier made the surprising decision to turn to ex-Wisconsin starter QB Graham Mertz. Not only has Mertz underwhelmed throughout his career, but the cement-footed pocket-passer doesn't appear to be a great fit for a system that likes to bootleg its quarterbacks to the perimeter.

But even after losing Richardson and O'Cyrus Torrence, system familiarity from the rest of the returning crop could keep the offense close to as efficient as it was last year (it would be stunning if it tangibly improved or regressed). Treading water on offense puts a ton of pressure on the defense to make an enormous leap from last year's No. 96 finish to raise this team's ceiling. Florida's rebuilt front seven is going to be improved over last year's bunch - maybe even significantly so. The question is how well the inexperienced secondary will play - they'll be aided by an improved pass-rush, but everything else is an open-ended question.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 5.8
Las Vegas Win Total: 5.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

You see Florida's 5.5 win total number at the sportsbook and get sticker shock. A deeper dive tells the full story. Florida plays Phil Steele's No. 1-ranked hardest schedule this season. I have major questions about the offense and the pass defense - and that's even giving Florida the credit that they will have cleaned up the shoddy run defense. Because of that, we in good conscience can't go over a number my system suggests is objectively correct.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Florida	Utah	11.0	0.15
McNeese	Florida	-37.5	1
Tennessee	Florida	2.7	0.45
Charlotte	Florida	-34.3	1
Florida	Kentucky	3.6	0.4
Vanderbilt	Florida	-19.3	0.996
Florida	South Carolina	-0.1	0.5
Georgia	Florida*	18.1	0.01
Arkansas	Florida	2.0	0.47
Florida	LSU	14.8	0.08
Florida	Missouri	-0.2	0.5
Florida St.	Florida	6.7	0.28

35. South Carolina Gamecocks

Returning Starters: 6 offense, 4 defense

Last year, South Carolina had a dangerous passing attack and a strong pass defense. The run offense and run defense, conversely, were terrible. Can the weaknesses be addressed while the strengths remain strengths? On the latter front, QB Spencer Rattler's return along with a strong WR/TE corps suggest that the passing offense isn't going to slip. The pass defense loses two NFL CBs, but the safeties are both studs and the corner group is going to be solid, albeit perhaps not Cam Smith/Darius Rush elite.

For a team that has been so active in the transfer portal - another top-30 class was signed this cycle - it was surprising more couldn't be done at the RB position following the defection of Marshawn Lloyd for the other USC. Juju McDowell/Dakereron Joyner are not an inspiring duo (Joyner is still considered an "athlete"… at this point because he's proven he can't excel at any position). As for the Run D, three starting DL and both starting LB were lost. But an overhaul was probably the preferred option here, anyway. Incremental improvements to the front-7 should be expected, but a leap forward would be stunning.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.5
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

In Shane Beamer's two years in Columbia, sportsbooks have installed the Gamecocks as underdogs 17 times. And yet Beamer is 15-11. He's 5-2 ATS as a home dog. Beamer's ability to ambush favored opponents - in part due to his always-elite special teams unit - will be needed this year against Phil Steele's No. 2 SOS. We trust Beamer, but we also trust our system. And since that system says this number is literally spot-on, we must pass.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
North Carolina	South Carolina*	4.5	0.34
Furman	South Carolina	-36.0	1
South Carolina	Georgia	22.9	0
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	-3.3	0.58
South Carolina	Tennessee	-10.0	0.82
Florida	South Carolina	0.1	0.5
South Carolina	Missouri	2.3	0.47
South Carolina	Texas A&M	10.6	0.16
Jacksonville St.	South Carolina	-30.1	1
Vanderbilt	South Carolina	-16.8	0.96
Kentucky	South Carolina	1.6	0.48
Clemson	South Carolina	10.1	0.18

36. Missouri Tigers

Returning Starters: 7 offense, 8 defense

HC Eli Drinkwitz enters Year 4 badly in need of a breakout. The case for: Missouri is the most experienced team in the SEC, per Phil Steele's metrics, and No. 8 overall. Not only do 15 players with starting experience return, but the two-deep is full of backups with either on-field experience or recruiting pedigree (at QB, for instance, Mizzou's top-three projected backups were all consensus top-20 at the position coming out). Last year's defense, which finished No. 33 overall while being particularly stingy against the run, returns most of last season's key contributors.

The case against: While the offense has a dangerous receiving corps and a very experienced offensive line, the quarterback position remains problematic. Drinkwitz has had a different Week 1 starting QB all three seasons. With Brady Cook, that looks likely to change this year. But is that a good thing? Cook had a 7/6 TD/INT rate against P5 opponents last year - he only excelled against the rancid pass defenses of that group (the final three: Tennessee, Arkansas, and Wake Forest... in which he had a 5/0 TD/INT). If Drinkwitz believed in Cook, would he have gone so hard after former hyped Miami recruit QB Jake Garcia in the portal? Drinkwitz hired Fresno State's former wizkid OC Kirby Moore... can Moore figure out this problem for him? What happens if he doesn't?

Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.1
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

Drinkwitz, 17-19 at the school (Mizzou has finished .500 in the regular season all three years with two bowl losses), is clearly hoping this is the year his Tigers move up a tier in the SEC. One enormous hurdle standing in the way of that: Mizzou faces Steele's No. 6 SOS. This is a high-variance team, with seven games on the schedule featuring adjusted spreads of 7.5 points or less (Mizzou is likely to go 2-3 in the other five games). Lean under, but not enough value at this number to pull the trigger.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
South Dakota	Missouri	-35.0	1
Middle Tennessee	Missouri	-24.2	1
Kansas St.	Missouri	-0.9	0.5
Memphis	Missouri*	-5.1	0.67
Missouri	Vanderbilt	-12.3	0.87
LSU	Missouri	11.9	0.14
Missouri	Kentucky	6.2	0.3
South Carolina	Missouri	-2.3	0.53
Missouri	Georgia	23.0	0
Tennessee	Missouri	5.3	0.33
Florida	Missouri	0.2	0.5
Missouri	Arkansas	5.9	0.31

38. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Returning Starters: 8 offense, 4 defense

The coaching staff was upended following the untimely death of legendary former HC Mike Leach. The offense is undergoing a seismic shift from an Air Raid to a ground-heavy approach. And the defense only returns four starters. The Bulldogs are almost assured of taking a step back from last year's 9-4 finish. Offensively, despite the returning talent, we have a square peg/round hole conundrum: That returning talent, by and large, was recruited for and experienced in Leach's patented Air Raid. Now, MSU is going to ask it to play a more ground-heavy approach than we've seen at Appalachian State recently.

New HC Zach Arnett, the former DC, is going to be far more reliant on his defense than Leach was - this, in part, was a reason for the change in offensive philosophy to a more clock-control strategy. The good news, for Arnett, is that Mississippi State has one of the country's best linebacking corps. The cautiously optimistic news is that the defensive front, while inexperienced on the "career starts" front, is full of former highly-touted recruits. The bad news is that there are big questions around CB Decamerion Richardson in the secondary.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 6.1
Las Vegas Win Total: 6.5
Thor's Bet: Under

The schedule has three gimmies, and you could kick that up to four if you consider hosting Arizona one of those. The problem is that Mississippi St. could be outgunned against most of the rest of the schedule in this transition year. My system has the Bulldogs installed as underdogs in seven-of-12 games. But five games on the schedule feature adjusted spreads less than a TD. We're still going to side with the under, as we cannot trust that the new staff and seismic offseason schematic changes will pay immediate dividends.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
SE Louisiana	Mississippi St.	-34.0	1
Arizona	Mississippi St.	-13.3	0.89
LSU	Mississippi St.	11.8	0.14
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	3.3	0.42
Alabama	Mississippi St.	11.5	0.14
Western Michigan	Mississippi St.	-30.4	1
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	6.7	0.28
Mississippi St.	Auburn	6.5	0.29
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	1.6	0.48
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	11.5	0.14
Southern Miss	Mississippi St.	-18.0	0.99
Ole Miss	Mississippi St.	5.0	0.34

81. Vanderbilt Commodores

Returning Starters: 7 offense, 8 defense

You have to respect how HC Clark Lea has taken to rebuilding this historically downtrodden progrea. Last year's 5-7 team was a near-miss against Mizzou away from going bowling. The offense loses star RB Ray Davis (to Kentucky). But I don't see regression coming on that side of the ball. Lea appears to have found a QB solution in AJ Swann, who has NFL-caliber arm strength. Swann's receiving corps is sneaky-solid, and he's playing behind a line that returns four starters. The 'Dores are going to need to sort out an uncertain RB situation in camp, though - this is another program that could have badly used a legitimate portal signing at that position.

Treading water on offense - at a minimum - and taking a tangible step forward on defense is how Vandy improves upon last year's progress. The 2022 defense sunk Vandy, finishing No. 124 in scoring (36.0 PPG allowed). Over the last two years, Vanderbilt has only had a combined 26 sacks. Meanwhile, the secondary has been terrible. Five starters return in the front seven. The secondary is also experienced (albeit not with quality game film). A two-pronged approach will be needed to improve the No. 126 pass defense: An improved pass-rush along with some semblance of consistency in the secondary.

Thor's Projected Win Total: 3.1
Las Vegas Win Total: 3.5
Thor's Bet: Pass

The good news: Lea is building this thing the right way, and momentum from last year's 5-7 mini-resurgence should continue into September with a 2-0 start. It's likely that Vandy splits the next two games to begin 3-1. But hope dies when the SEC schedule begins. My system projects Vandy as at least 12-point underdogs in every SEC game, and it gives the Commodores only a 29% chance of winning an SEC game. The cleanest path to a Vanderbilt "over" is upsetting Wake Forest in September to begin 4-0. If that doesn't happen, an even bigger upset will be required in SEC play to cash over tickets.

Away	Home	ATL	Win Odds
Hawai’i	Vanderbilt	-14.2	0.91
Alabama A&M	Vanderbilt	-21.5	1
Vanderbilt	Wake Forest	9.7	0.19
Vanderbilt	UNLV	-4.6	0.66
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	16.4	0.05
Missouri	Vanderbilt	12.3	0.13
Vanderbilt	Florida	19.3	0.004
Georgia	Vanderbilt	33.0	0
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	24.3	0
Auburn	Vanderbilt	15.2	0.07
Vanderbilt	South Carolina	16.8	0.04
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	24.4	0

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