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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, August 27th (2021)

by August 27, 2021
Top 3 MLB Betting Picks Wade Miley

Our run of profitable days continues, as we are plus money on our daily picks for the fifth consecutive day. This puts our run at 10-2-1 since last Friday, and we look to finish off the work week on another high note.

Today’s picks involve two runlines on two favorites that have dominated their opponents this season and a total in a potential playoff matchup between two hot pitchers.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 145-122-7 (+6.48 units) **Yesterday’s AZ-PHI UNDER pick was void due to a late pitching change

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs (-150)

The Baltimore Orioles’ recent two-game winning streak has significantly lowered what was likely to be much steeper odds had they entered this series opener on a losing streak of 20+ games. However, Baltimore’s last two wins do not hide the fact that they have been owned by the Tampa Bay Rays this season, as the Rays have won 15 of their 16 head-to-head meetings this year. While Tampa Bay’s moneyline odds are too steep, their -1.5 runline odds are manageable, considering they have covered the runline in 13 of those 16 meetings.

The Rays have won four straight games and eight of their last ten. They have covered the runline in each of their previous 13 wins, so unless you think the Orioles have a chance for an outright upset, taking the chance on the extra -1.5 runs is worth the risk. Shane McClanahan (8-4, 3.63) has won five of his last seven starts, pitching to a 2.82 ERA in that span. He has won all three of his starts against the Orioles this year, holding them to five earned runs in 17 combined innings while striking out 23. McClanahan is opposed by Matt Harvey (6-13, 6.27), who has been tagged for 11 runs in 6.2 innings over two starts against the Rays this season.

The Orioles are 0-5 in their last five home games against a left-handed starter, and Tampa Bay should be able to ride McClanahan’s arm and their hot bats to a seventh straight win in Baltimore.

Cincinnati Reds -1.5 runs (+110)

The Cincinnati Reds face the Miami Marlins for the second time in a week, after sweeping a four-game home series against them last week. The Reds held Miami to nine total runs in that series and will look to Wade Miley (10-4, 2.88) to shut down the Marlins offense again.

Miley will look to improve upon a sub-par outing against the Marlins in his previous start. He lasted just 4.2 innings and allowed two earned runs on five hits while walking three batters. Still, Miley has not lost any of his last 15 starts, with his last loss coming back on May 19. Miley has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his previous three road starts, but we are still encouraged by his 2.66 ERA in four August starts.

Miley is opposed by Marlins rookie Zach Thompson (2-5, 2.97), who allowed two runs over five innings in a no-decision in his last start against the Reds. Thompson has faced three teams twice this season (Braves, Cubs, Padres), and each time he allowed more runs against them the second time he faced them while striking out fewer batters twice (had the same amount of strikeouts both times facing the Braves). So if the Reds score more than the two runs off of Thompson that he allowed in their first meeting, that should be enough run support for Miley.

Not only have the Reds won all four meetings against the Marlins this year, but they have won ten of their last 11 meetings overall. Just like in the Rays vs. Orioles bet, the runline odds are worth the risk.

Giants-Braves UNDER 8.5 runs (+100)

The Atlanta Braves face the San Francisco Giants after a scheduling quirk that afforded them two days off in late August. The fact that the Braves are rested and have a rest advantage over their opponent bodes well for the under. The under is 13-5 in Atlanta’s 18 games after an off day and is 5-2 when they have the rest advantage in their matchup. Conversely, the under is 2-2 when the Giants are at a rest disadvantage and is 37-26-3 in their 66 road games.

We would likely back the under in this series opener based on the trends alone but are even more encouraged given the caliber of the two starting pitchers. Kevin Gausman (12-5, 2.47) has pitched to a 1.70 ERA on the road this season. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 23 of his 25 starts, and the team is 4-0 in his four August starts. Max Fried (11-7, 3.49) has also been hot in August, winning all four of his starts while pitching to a 0.67 ERA. His success dates back further, as he is 9-4 with a 2.70 ERA and a .228 OBA since June 6.

The under is 7-1 in San Francisco’s last eight games and is 4-0-1 in Atlanta’s last five. In addition, the under has cashed in eight of the previous 11 meetings between these teams. We are in store for another pitcher’s duel tonight.

MLB Prop Bets

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Baseball, Picks