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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 30th (2021)

by September 30, 2021
Top 3 MLB Betting Picks Paul Goldschmidt

Where has all the drama gone? In what could have been a tension-packed and fun-filled weekend in Major League Baseball, the best teams keep winning and seemingly take away all of the drama from the remaining races. The Braves and Astros have magic numbers of one to clinch their divisions, and even the Giants are close to wrapping up the N.L. West with a magic number of three. The Rays clinched homefield advantage throughout the A.L. playoffs with their win over the Astros last night. We can only hope that the more clarity we have with the playoff picture, the more value we will get in specific odds for the rest of the regular season.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Thursday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 181-147-8 (+18.03 units) 

St. Louis Cardinals Team Total OVER 4.5 runs (+105)

It is finally over; the St. Louis Cardinals’ 17-game winning streak finally came to an end at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers last night. Not only did the Brewers end the Cardinals’ winning streak, but they also shut them out in the process. However, with how hot St. Louis’s offense has been the last month, we expect them to pick right back up and have a great day offensively, even if they have no playoff positioning left to play for.

The Cardinals lead the league with an OPS of .810 against left-handed starters, and their .261 batting average ranks eighth. Today they face Brett Anderson (4-9, 4.30) was lit up in his last start against St. Louis, lasting just 1.2 innings and allowing six runs (two earned) on six hits. He has not won any of his previous six starts and has pitched to a 6.40 ERA in that span. During their 17-game winning streak, the Cardinals have scored six or more runs 12 times. Current Cardinals hitters are a combined 32-for-91 (.352 B.A.) and slugging .593 in their careers against Anderson. The combination of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, in particular, have terrorized Anderson, going a combined 21-for-43 with three doubles and four home runs against him. Anderson has also been worse in day games, pitching to a 4.71 ERA in nine day starts versus a 4.02 ERA in 13 night starts.

The under is 5-0-1 in Anderson’s last six starts as an underdog, but we still like St. Louis to do their part in the scoring.

Los Angeles Angels ML (-145)

Angels starter Alex Cobb (8-3, 3.46) has flown under-the-radar this season since he has been injured and played for a fourth-place team. Cobb has made two starts since returning from the I.L., and he has allowed one earned run in his last 11.2 innings. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in his previous six starts and has won six of his previous seven decisions. Cobb is a ground ball pitcher who does not give up the long ball, as he has allowed just one home run in his last 39 innings.

Cobb is opposed by Texas’s Glenn Otto (0-3, 8.02), who has struggled mightily through his first five big league starts. Otto has not yet lasted more than five innings and allowed at least seven earned runs in two of his last three starts. In his lone start against the Angels, he allowed just two earned runs in 4.2 innings, in a game his team eventually lost 3-2.

Atlanta Braves ML (-150)

Stick a fork in the Phillies, they’re done. Philadelphia had a chance to control their own destiny and vault to the top of the N.L. East with a successful series against the Braves. However, they have been outscored 9-3 through the first two games, and now any Braves win, or Phillies loss means their season is over. Nevertheless, the Braves will be a motivated club looking to celebrate an N.L. East title on their homefield with a clinching win over Philadelphia tonight.

Phillies starter Kyle Gibson (10-8, 3.60) is having a miserable September, going 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in five starts. Those numbers are especially concerning given he has faced four of the league’s worst offenses (Marlins, Cubs, Mets, Pirates) in that span. In addition, he now faces an Atlanta lineup that ranks in the top-nine in runs, home runs, and OPS.

Ian Anderson (8-5, 3.60) has lost just once in his last eight starts. His ERA, OBA, WHIP, and K: B.B. ratio are all better at home than on the road, and Anderson has been beaten just once in ten home starts. His 4.79 ERA through four September starts is his highest of any month, but the team is 2-2 in those starts and lost each to two of the N.L.’s best home teams (Giants, Rockies) by one run apiece. Considering the Phillies appear to have no fight left in them this season, -150 odds are not too steep for this wager.

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Baseball, Picks