Yesterday was an excellent day to wager on underdogs, as ‘dogs went 7-5 SU. Many bettors like wagering on mostly favorites late in the season, figuring that they are favored because they are the more motivated side and are likely in a better position in the standings to track down playoff spots. However, bettors should not lose sight of the fact that often the best teams lose 60+ games in a season, and that is no different in September than it is at any other point in the year. Just one team in baseball has longer than a five-game winning streak, and no one has longer than a three-game losing streak. That point summarizes how fickle betting on baseball can be.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
YTD: 157-130-7 (+11.25 units)
Miami Marlins ML (+150)
The New York Mets were the talk of the sport a week ago after Javier Baez and other teammates did their “thumbs down” gesture to the fans. However, throughout all that turmoil and negative press, the Mets have continued to win games. New York has won seven of their last nine games, all either against the Marlins or Nationals. They begin a three-game road series against the Marlins tonight, but Miami has been a “house of horrors” for them of late.
The Marlins are 5-1 in their last six home games against the Mets. They face the weakest link in the Mets rotation in Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 6.59), who is still searching for his first win of the season. Carrasco is facing the Marlins for the third time in his eighth start tonight and has allowed a combined five earned runs on nine hits in 9.2 innings against Miami over the last two starts. Carrasco has allowed a .412 batting average to the top of opposing batting orders in his previous two starts, the fourth-highest in the majors in the last two weeks. One of those starts came against the Marlins, as Miguel Rojas, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Jesus Aguilar went a combined 4-11 with a home run and three runs scored.
Miami counters with Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.23), who took the loss against the Mets in his last start, which was the second start of his career. While that start was on the road, we are looking for the youngster to be more comfortable in his home park, just like he was when he pitched 6.1 strong innings against the Nationals in his debut.
The Marlins are a profitable 19-21 as home underdogs this season, and while they are just 2-5 when they have a rest advantage over their opponents, it helps that they had yesterday off while the Mets finished their series with the Nationals.
Nationals-Braves OVER 9 runs (-115)
The Atlanta Braves begin a nine-game homestand against the Nationals, Marlins, and Rockies, and hope the lighter schedule will help them put some wins together and create separation in the NL East. The Braves and Nationals have played several high-scoring games this season, as the over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 meetings in Atlanta. Thus, we like another slugfest to break out tonight.
How many casual fans would be shocked to know that the Nationals own the league’s highest OPS (.803) against left-handed pitching and are second in team batting average against lefties (.271)? They look to do their part in the scoring against Atlanta lefty Max Fried (11-7, 3.51), who has pitched to a microscopic 1.76 ERA over his last seven starts. Fried is making his sixth start against the Nationals this year, and so far, he is 3-1 with a 5.35 ERA. He has allowed just two earned runs in his last 12 innings against Washington, but facing Fried for the sixth time should give the Nationals lineup the advantage. The over is 6-0-1 in Fried’s previous seven starts as a home favorite.
Fried is opposed by Washington’s Paolo Espino (4-4, 4.08), who has pitched to a 5.70 ERA in his last seven starts. Espino threw five perfect innings in four combined appearances out of the bullpen earlier this season but was roughed up for five earned runs on eight hits in four innings in his only start against them at home on August 15th. Look for a Braves offense that ranks in the top ten in the league in scoring at home to get to Espino again.
San Francisco Giants -1.5 runs (-145)
When Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb last took the mound, we backed him to keep Milwaukee’s high-powered offense under their team total. Webb responded with a seven-inning appearance where he allowed one earned run on four hits and tied a season-high with ten strikeouts. He was roughed up for six earned runs in 3.2 innings in his only start at Coors Field this year but was undone by a lack of command when he issued three walks. Given that Webb has allowed fewer than three walks in 13 of his last 14 starts, it is fair to say his control issues have been solved. If you have not seen his wipeout slider, that is reason alone to tune into this game, as it is one of the best pitches in the game.
The Giants are 18-13 as road favorites and face a Rockies team that is 21-18 as home underdogs this season. In addition, the Giants are just 18-35 in their last 53 road games at Colorado. However, the under is 4-0 in Webb’s last four road starts, and we like that as a sign that the budding star will rise to the challenge and help secure a big road win for baseball’s best team.
— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) September 3, 2021
MLB Prop Bets
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