Bets Trends on Twitter provided the following in advance of the start of yesterday’s games. After going 8-6 again yesterday, it seems lower scoring games are becoming a trend of late.
— Bets Trends (@betstrends) August 31, 2021
We are on a run of eight consecutive profitable days, and are bucking this under trend with one of our selections. Our picks focus on a total involving a big-name pitcher that has been struggling of late and two runlines involving home teams with significant pitching advantages.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
YTD: 152-124-7 (+12.67 units)
Padres-Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 runs (-110)
The San Diego Padres have won just five of their last 18 games, and their offense has been largely to blame for the team’s failures. In 26 games in August, the Padres ranked 27th in the league with just 106 runs scored. That 3.92 runs per game average is almost 0.7 runs lower than their 4.61 runs per game average for the season. However, they have averaged five runs per game so far in their current series with the Diamondbacks, and that combined with Yu Darvish’s struggles has us liking a high-scoring game in this series finale.
Darvish (7-8, 3.80) is a mind-boggling 0-5 with a 7.13 ERA in his last seven starts. Darvish has battled injuries lately, missing starts because of hip inflammation and lower back tightness. Because of the nagging injuries, he has been limited to three starts in August, pitching to a 6.32 ERA and averaging just over five innings per start in that span.
Arizona’s Taylor Widener (2-1, 4.28) has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four consecutive starts of five innings each. Before that, he had allowed five earned runs in three straight starts. This year, Widener is 1-0 in two starts against San Diego and has allowed just two earned runs in 11 combined innings. However, his 6.63 ERA in four home starts is more than three runs higher than his road ERA, so we are betting on the Padres offense to touch him up today.
The Padres are 0-5 in Darvish’s last five road starts against teams with a losing record. However, instead of opting for Arizona’s moneyline odds based on that trend, we instead suggest that this means he will do his part in allowing runs.
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 runs (-145)
As we did a couple of times when the Tampa Bay Rays played the Baltimore Orioles recently, we are backing the Toronto Blue Jays’ moneyline odds against a historically bad Baltimore team. The Orioles have covered the runline (or won outright) in 30 of their 65 road games but have a runline record of 1-11 in their last 11 road games, losing by an average of 5.5 runs per game in that span.
The Blue Jays had their three-game winning streak snapped last night, but are lingering in the race for the A.L.’s second wild card spot. They have covered the runline in 25 of their 35 home wins but will relish the opportunity to feast on an Orioles team that is on pace for 51 wins this season.
Orioles starter Matt Harvey (6-14, 6.18) has pitched better lately, posting a 4.10 ERA over his last seven starts. However, he has faced Toronto three times this year and has allowed 13 earned runs in 13.2 combined innings while striking out just nine batters in that span.
Conversely, Steven Matz (10-7, 3.81) has pitched to a 2.45 ERA in his last seven starts. His lone career start against Baltimore came on July 6, when he allowed three earned runs in four innings in a loss. However, Matz allowed two home runs in that start and has since allowed just two combined home runs in his last 41.2 innings. If he continues that success of keeping the ball in the yard, he should limit a weak Orioles offense.
Baltimore has just two wins against a team with a winning record since July 19, and we are not about to suggest they will beat a solid Blue Jays team at home for the second day in a row.
San Francisco Giants -1.5 runs (+135)
The San Francisco Giants had troubles with Brewers All-Stars Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff the last two nights. Burnes and Woodruff combined to limit the Giants to two runs on nine hits and 17 strikeouts in 12 combined innings. The good news for the Giants is that they are not facing one of Milwaukee’s best arms, but they have their best starting pitcher on the mound tonight.
Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson (4-8, 4.27) has lost three straight starts, including two losses against some of the league’s worst teams in the Nationals and Pirates. His numbers across the board are worse on the road, specifically, his 5.00 ERA in 12 road starts compared to a 3.48 ERA in eight home starts. San Francisco counters with Cy Young candidate Kevin Gausman (12-5, 2.49), who has allowed three earned runs or less in 24 of his 26 starts. Gausman has a .186 OBA and a 1.01 WHIP in 66.2 innings at home this year, and the Giants have won four of his last five starts, including the previous two at home.
San Francisco fell just short of matching their franchise record of 85 wins before September 1 set in 1962 and 1993. With the Dodgers ready to overtake them in the division, Gausman and company will lead them to a convincing win tonight.
MLB Prop Bets
- Nick Castellanos Prop Bet Odds
- Corbin Burnes Prop Bet Odds
- Kyle Seager Prop Bet Odds
- Austin Meadows Prop Bet Odds
- Trea Turner Prop Bet Odds
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.