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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, September 29th (2021)

by September 29, 2021

Though the playoffs do not officially start until next week, yesterday had a playoff feel in some of the games. The Phillies and Braves battled to the last at-bat in an old-fashioned pitcher’s duel, and the Yankees and Blue Jays went back-and-forth until a red-hot Giancarlo Stanton put the game out of reach. The Braves can effectively end the NL East race with a win today, as it would lower their magic number to one. Even still, we should still have a playoff feel on the last Wednesday of the regular season as there are still plenty of races with intrigue.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 181-144-8 (+21.03 units) 

New York Yankees First Five Innings ML (-120)

The bigger the game, the better it seems Yankees ace Gerrit Cole pitches. Cole (16-8, 3.08) has a second consecutive “must-win” start, as he is coming off a six-inning, three-earned run effort in his last start at Fenway Park. While Cole’s stat line in his previous outing will not jump off the page, he had already been gifted a seven-run lead and was likely attacking the strike zone more to keep his pitch count down. Cole has made it past six innings just once in his last 11 starts, which is why we prefer to focus on the first five innings moneyline to take the bullpens out of the equation.

Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios (12-9, 3.48) has allowed current Yankees to hit a combined .243 and slug .392 in 74 career at-bats. However, some of the Yankees’ biggest bats have fared well against Berrios, like Aaron Judge, who is 5-for-8, and Anthony Rizzo, who is hitting .333 with a home run off Berrios. Berrios has allowed three earned runs in back-to-back starts, and the Blue Jays will likely find themselves trailing after five innings if Berrios turns in another performance like that.

The Yankees are 4-0 in Cole’s last four road starts and are 5-0 in his previous five Wednesday starts. Thus, we like the Cy Young candidate to put his team on his back again tonight and guide them to an early lead.

Red Sox-Orioles OVER 9.5 runs (-110)

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles meet in a pitching matchup between Nathan Eovaldi (10-9, 3.88) and Zac Lowther (1-2, 7.66). While Eovaldi has been one of Boston’s best pitchers all season, he does not have great career numbers against Baltimore. Eovaldi has allowed current Orioles to hit .321 with a .405 slugging percentage in 84 combined at-bats. He is facing the Orioles for the third time this season, but he labored through five innings against them, allowing three earned runs and seven hits against them two starts ago. Eovaldi has not won a decision since August 11 and does not come into this start with the best form. His 4.85 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in September are both his highest of any month this season.

Zac Lowther makes his sixth start of his career tonight, and his previous two against Boston have been two of the shortest outings of his career. Lowther has been tagged for ten earned runs in 5.2 combined innings against Boston this year. The Orioles are 1-4 in Lowther’s five starts, and he does not provide any reason to feel confident that he will pitch well tonight.

The over is 3-0-1 in Eovaldi’s last four starts against teams with a losing record, which has us confident he will do his part in surrendering runs of his own.

Cincinnati Reds ML (+155)

After consecutive days where the Cincinnati Reds had rookies in their Major League debuts on the mound, they get back to starting a veteran in Sonny Gray. Gray (7-8, 3.99) has dominated current White Sox hitters, holding them to a combined 7-for-66 (.106 OBA) and .242 combined slugging percentage. As the season has gone on, he has gotten better, pitching to a 3-2 record and 2.93 ERA in his previous seven starts. Gray’s WHIP in that span is 0.80, and he has better than a 3:1 K:BB ratio.

The White Sox are sending Carlos Rodon (12-5, 2.47) to the mound for just the fourth time this month, nine days after his last start was limited to three innings. Manager Tony La Russa was not encouraged by Rodon’s bullpen session on Sunday and acknowledged that the team is “giving [Rodon] a shot” by pitching him tonight. There is no telling what the White Sox will get out of Rodon tonight, which makes the Reds the smarter play.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Baseball, Picks