Welcome to the Friday baseball slate. The All-Star break is right around the corner. I'll continue to be here once a week to provide you with the best MLB picks for the day. Baseball is the best sport to get specific with your bets, and there are plenty of angles to attack any given game, with almost every day offering a loaded slate of opportunities. It's the best time of year.
We were back in the green last time out despite the Cubs failing me once again. Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Friday, July 10th.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Last Time: 2-1 | This Season: 23-22
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers
Starting with an Interleague matchup, the Detroit Tigers host the Philadelphia Phillies as the Tigers try to get their season back on track. A bright spot for them has been catcher Dillon Dingler. The 27-year-old has a .320 batting average since the start of June with a .945 OPS. To go with it, he gets to face Aaron Nola today, and the Phillies starter hasn't exactly been great.
Nola owns a 5.87 ERA this season with an .842 OPS against. Righties have seen him better, and the catcher also gets a bump when playing in Detroit, where doubles are abundant. To top it off, the Phillies’ bullpen ranks 21st in ERA.
Dingler will have ample opportunity for extra-base hits, and whether you want to go with his hits + runs + RBIs combo proo or elsewhere, I support that notion. Personally, I'm going to chase the plus-money odds and take the over on his total bases prop tonight.
Pick: Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 Total Bases (+123 at BetRivers)
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
At Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore hosts Kansas City in a bout between two last-place divisional teams. Luinder Avila takes the mound for the Royals with a 5.50 ERA.
Avila does have some pretty extreme splits with a 9.68 home ERA and 2.65 road ERA. Even if he puts up a solid start, the Royals have the second-worst bullpen ERA (5.22), so the Orioles are capable of tacking on some late runs.
On the other side, the Royals have scored the fifth-most runs since the start of June. Brandon Young starts for the Orioles, and he's been solid but is coming off a tough start where he allowed four runs in five innings, so he’s not unstoppable.
Lefties also get a big boost at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which represents three of the top four Royals hitters. The rain should clear up by game time, and the weather should be nice and warm. I'm expecting a ton of runs tonight.
Pick: Over 10.0 Runs (-115 at BetRivers)
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Finishing with a plus-money bet, I'll go ahead and spoil it by saying I expect the Mariners to win on the road tonight. I know it's a long way to travel and that Tampa is 33-14 at home this season, but that's exactly the value you're getting.
On the surface, Luis Castillo has been fine for Seattle, but he's found his groove of late, spinning a 3.29 ERA across his last five outings while letting up just two home runs in his 27.1 innings pitched during that time frame.
Seattle owns the fifth-best bullpen unit while Tampa's ranks 20th. While these two teams have opposite records, they have nearly identical run differentials, and Nick Martinez is hittable, with a 5.14 ERA across his five June starts. I see this game as a coin flip, but the plus odds make it a plus-EV selection.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+102 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
