My MLB picks are still profitable for the season despite last week’s 1-2 mark. I swing for the fences a little more this week with run line and Moneyline wagers at plus-money odds, in addition to opposing the World Series favorites.
Here are the best MLB picks & predictions for Saturday, August 15th.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | This Season: 31-29 (+1.03 units)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
If one is to beat the American League-best Rays, it will likely take a superb pitching performance. That is exactly what I am counting on from Orioles ace Trevor Rogers, who is 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last eight starts. Baltimore’s record in that span is 7-1.
Rogers has come a long way from his first 10 starts, where he went 2-6 with a 6.84 ERA. In those 48.2 innings, he allowed a .291 opponents’ batting average and eight home runs. But over his last 11 starts, Rogers is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA. In those 67 innings, he has limited opponents to a .215 average and allowed just three homers.
Meanwhile, Ian Seymour has seen his home runs allowed increase for the fourth straight month. He has allowed just one homer over two August starts, but that is due to regress, given his seventh percentile groundball rate and 15th percentile barrel rate.
There is great value with this play, even though Tampa Bay entered this series 36-14 in its last 50 home games (+15.05 units/21% return on investment).
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (+131)
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Boston has cooled down, losing back-to-back series. But that still followed a 27-3 record in its previous 30 games, making it just the seventh team ever to win 27+ games over a 30-game stretch. That is especially true when its latest opponent, the Blue Jays, have had their number, winning nine of the 13 head-to-head matchups.
Pittsburgh's expected win-loss record is five games better than its actual record thanks to a +25 run differential (it's the only last-place team with a positive run differential). But it is also 0-4 in Jared Jones' last four starts, with five total runs scored.
Boston has won 16 of Sonny Gray's 22 starts, as the righty is 14-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 26th-ranked WHIP. He has already tied his single-season win record, finishing with 14 wins three times (in 2014 and 2015 with the Athletics, and last year with the Cardinals).
In the Red Sox' only two losses in a Gray start since June 19th, they scored one total run. Otherwise, in that span, they covered the run line on five different occasions, with Gray earning the win in six of those nine outings.
Run support shouldn't be an issue against Jones, who has pitched to a 9.69 ERA over his last three starts.
Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (+139)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers southpaw Justin Wrobleski has looked far from an All-Star of late. In his last three starts, he has allowed nine home runs with a 9.88 ERA. He now has the fifth-worst ERA among qualified starters since the All-Star break.
It is a good sign for the Brewers’ offense that table-setter Jackson Chourio has rebounded nicely from a 25-game home run drought spanning July 5th to August 3rd. Since then, he was one of seven players with four or more home runs entering the weekend and ranked 19th among all sluggers in ISO. Chourio also tied for the 10th-highest hard-hit rate in that span, while his fly-ball rate was fourth-highest among those in the top 10.
The biggest reason for opposing the two-time defending World Series champions is Jacob Misiorowski, who was sixth in fWAR at the start of last week among all position players.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-130)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.