Can the Padres' offense get going against the Phillies? Below, I highlight why I think it's very unlikely. Then, I explain why I expect the Brewers to destroy the Giants after a poor performance last night and why the Yankees and Guardians are in line for another offensive battle. Here are my top MLB picks for Thursday, June 4th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler wasn't great in his last start, but it's hard to fault him since he was facing the Dodgers, who are the second-highest scoring team in the league. Wheeler has pitched at least six innings in six consecutive starts, allowing more than one run just twice during that span. He's shut out two of his last three opponents.
The Padres enter this game having scored the fewest runs in the league (229). They've yet to score more than two runs in this series against the Phillies, and they've scored just two runs in three consecutive games. The Padres are 0-5 against the Phillies this season, scoring three or fewer runs in each game. They've been shut out by Philadelphia twice.
Wheeler also has an excellent history against the Padres. In 75 at-bats, the Padres have just 13 hits against Wheeler, for a batting average of just .173. Additionally, Wheeler has allowed just four earned runs to the Padres in his career.
Pick: Padres Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (-130)
San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
While the Giants beat the Brewers last night, it was only because of an absolute gem from starter Logan Webb. He went seven innings, allowing just one hit. But I think that one performance was a fluke, and the Brewers are going to dominate the Giants tonight.
This season, the Brewers are 2-1 against the Giants. They've outscored them 24-6, winning each of their games by at least five runs. The problem with the Giants is that they can't score. They rank 26th in the league in total runs, which puts them at a serious disadvantage against a team that ranks sixth in the league in scoring.
Adrian Houser gets the start for the Giants, and with a 5.59 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, I don't see how he keeps the Brewers off the scoreboard.
Meanwhile, Coleman Crow will start for the Brewers. While he's allowed five earned runs in three starts, he has a WHIP of 0.98. Considering how much of a mismatch this is across the board, I can't believe the plus-money odds for the Brewers to win by multiple runs.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+109)
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
While the Guardians have scored the 19th-most runs in the league this season, the Yankees have scored the fifth-most. The Yankees have scored at least four runs in eight consecutive games, and at least eight in four of those contests.
The Guardians haven't been nearly as effective as them offensively this season. However, they’ve been great this series - 14 total runs, and at least five in both games. Last night, they had no trouble taking care of Gerrit Cole, hitting three home runs off him in 5.1 innings.
With both teams hitting well, it's hard not to love the offenses against a pitching matchup featuring Slade Cecconi and Carlos Rodon. Cecconi allowed multiple runs in seven of his last eight starts and has an ERA of 5.25. Rodon has been better than that, but his last three starts have come against teams ranked 20th or worse in total runs this season.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-104)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.