We're coming off a profitable 3-1 betting card, and I'm looking to keep it rolling tonight in the NHL. The league has five games on the docket this evening, including what should be a thrilling matchup between the Islanders and the Ducks.
Below, I'll break down that game, as well as two others, from a sports betting perspective. Here are my top NHL picks & predictions for Wednesday, March 4th.
Wednesday's NHL Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Vegas Golden Knights (+110) vs. Detroit Red Wings (-135) | O/U 6.0 (-110/-110)
The Golden Knights (28-19-14) are looking to snap a three-game slide, but find themselves priced as +110 underdogs heading into Wednesday's cross-conference clash with the Red Wings (35-20-6). Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.
I’m on the under. The under has cashed in four of Vegas' last five games, while going 5-1 in Detroit's last six outings. Under bets are also 10-4 in the Red Wings' last 14 games at home.
The Golden Knights may have a goaltending problem, but the defense in front has been solid. Vegas is the third-best team in terms of high-danger shots on goal allowed (168). Detroit isn't too far behind in eighth place (182). Over the last 10 games specifically, the teams rank ninth (28) and second (21), respectively.
Offensively, both teams have struggled recently. Over the last 10 games, the Golden Knights are 19th in goals per 60 minutes (2.96), while the Red Wings are 25th (2.27). I don't anticipate either offense breaking out tonight against the quality opposing defenses. Let's take the under.
Bet: Under 6.0 Goals (-110)
New York Islanders (-110) vs. Anaheim Ducks (-110) | O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)
This should be an exciting matchup, as the Ducks (33-24-3) gear up to host the Islanders (35-21-5). Both teams currently occupy a playoff spot. This game gets underway at 10:00 p.m. ET from the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.
I'll also be on the under in this cross-conference matchup. For starters, the Ducks are playing on zero days of rest after getting shut down 5-1 by the Avalanche last night. I won't be surprised if Anaheim's offense is stifled again tonight, as they'll likely be running into a Vezina frontrunner in Ilya Sorokin (-110 to win the award). Sorokin enters with a 2.47 GAA (ninth) and a .915 SV% (third), while his six shutouts lead the NHL.
Additionally, these offenses will likely have to earn their goals during 5-on-5 play. There shouldn't be any easy ones tonight, considering these have been two of the worst power-play units in the league this season. Anaheim is 23rd at 18.33%, while New York is 31st at 15.82%. Ultimately, this total of 6.5 goals feels just a tad high, especially with a couple of offenses that are 13th or worse in goals per 60 minutes this season. I'll predict a 4-2 final. Give me the under.
Bet: Under 6.5 Goals (-110)
Carolina Hurricanes (-285) vs. Vancouver Canucks (+230) | O/U 6.0 (-118/-102)
The Hurricanes (38-16-6) haven't gotten a ton of media attention this season, but they've quietly compiled a resume that puts them atop the Eastern Conference standings with 82 points. They'll take on the lowly Canucks (18-35-7), who are now the worst team in the NHL with only 43 points. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. ET from Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC.
I'm laying the 1.5 goals with the Hurricanes at -115 odds, as there's a good chance this game turns into an absolute massacre. For starters, the Canucks have been atrocious as of late, going just 2-16-4 in their last 22 games. Twelve of those 22 games have ended with a deficit of two or more goals for Vancouver.
Now the Canucks will have to take on arguably the most fundamentally sound team in the league. Carolina ranks fourth in goal differential per 60 minutes (+0.59), while Vancouver is dead last (-1.20). In terms of expected goal differential per 60, the teams are third (+0.69) and 32nd (-0.59), respectively.
And finally, when looking at Corsi% and Fenwick%, which are metrics that try to isolate puck possession and play-driving capabilities, Carolina has a massive edge. The Hurricanes rank first in both advanced metrics (59.63%, 58.34%), while the Canucks are 27th in both categories (47.56%, 47.24%). Carolina should simply out-class the inferior opponent tonight, and I think it'll show up on the scoresheet with them notching a win of two or more goals.
Bet: Hurricanes -1.5 (-115)
