This weekend's UFC 317 card from Sin City is loaded with bangers, which in turn provides us with a myriad of betting options. I'm heading to the prop sheet in this article, and below you can find my top three prop bets for Saturday's UFC 317 event.
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UFC 317 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ilia Topuria (-455) vs. Charles Oliveira (+350)
All roads lead to a title fight in the Lightweight Division, as Ilia Topuria will take on Charles Oliveira (No. 2) for the recently vacated belt at 155 pounds. Topuria is a massive -455 Moneyline favorite, while the veteran Oliveira comes back at +350 to get his hand raised.
Getting the former Featherweight champion to land at least one takedown with a nearly 3-1 payout is too good to pass up. Now, of course, no one's looking to go to the mat with Oliveira, since he's always a threat to stick you with a submission off his back. However, looking back at his fight log, he's 13-2 in his last 15 fights, and he conceded two takedowns to both Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan in the losing efforts. Oliveira owns a pedestrian 56% takedown defense rate, which Topuria should be able to exploit if he wants to. I'm going to sprinkle a few bucks on Topuria to secure at least one takedown at +275.
Bet: Ilia Topuria Over 0.5 Takedowns Landed (+275)
Alexandre Pantoja (-238) vs. Kai Kara-France (+195)
The co-main event for Saturday's UFC 317 card pits Alexandre Pantoja (champion) against Kai Kara-France (No. 4) in a Flyweight championship showdown. The Brazilian champ is priced at -238 to retain the strap, while his challenger sits at +195 on the Moneyline.
I'm keeping it with the takedown props for the co-main event, and I'm locking in Pantoja to secure three or more takedowns. For starters, he has eclipsed this number in four consecutive fights, as well as in five of his last six bouts. The 35-year-old is averaging five takedowns per fight over the six-contest stretch, and he's also landing a respectable 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes.
In my opinion, Kara-France has an advantage on the feet, which means that it's likely in Pantoja's best interest to take this fight to the canvas. Additionally, the oddsmakers say we should be in for a lengthy tilt, as the total is set at 4.5 rounds (Over: -110/Under: -120). Pantoja has gone the full 25 minutes in three out of his last four bouts, and if that's the case on Saturday, he'll have plenty of time to land three or more takedowns.
Bet: Alexandre Pantoja Over 2.5 Takedowns Landed (-110)
Beneil Dariush (-102) vs. Renato Moicano (-118)
We have an absolute banger in the Lightweight Division Saturday, as Beneil Dariush (No. 9) returns after an 18-month layoff to take on Renato Moicano (No. 11). This fight is sitting in the pick’em range, with Moicano being the slimmest of favorites at -118. Dariush is priced at -102 to snap his two-fight slide and secure a victory.
I'm interested to see how Dariush looks after a 1.5-year hiatus from the sport. But at 36 years of age and being tasked with taking on a fighter who's on a meteoric rise, I think it's fair to propose that the American may look rusty on Saturday. I'm going to fade Dariush by taking the under on 38.5 significant strikes.
"Money" Moicano has done well not to get hit in his UFC career, as he boasts a 60% strike defense rate. Only 40% of his opponents' strikes are landing. Additionally, both of these guys have excellent finishing abilities, so there's also a chance we see a finish, which in turn takes away time for them to amass significant strikes.
Dariush has seen 19 of his 29 professional fights end early (65.5%), while Moicano is 17-10 (63.0%) in the same category. In my opinion, there are too many variables that suggest we could see a lower-striking performance from Dariush on Saturday night. Give me the under on 38.5 significant strikes.
Bet: Beneil Dariush Under 38.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
