As we continue the 2025 WNBA Finals, the Las Vegas Aces will once again host the Phoenix Mercury in Game 2. The Aces claimed the first game of the series and look to secure a 2-0 lead. Let's not waste any more time and jump right into some of our favorite WNBA picks & predictions for Sunday's game.
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Sunday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Aces First-Quarter Moneyline & First-Quarter Under 42.5 Points (+260)
The Mercury are fresh off a near victory in the initial game of the series. Phoenix fell short by just three points after leading the game heading into the fourth quarter. The Mercury and Aces finished the first quarter tied 21-21. Las Vegas is 4-3-2 in the first 10 minutes of gameplay through the 2025 playoffs, while the Mercury owns a record of 2-4-2.
Phoenix is averaging 19.8 points in the first quarter through the playoffs, while shooting an extremely low 38% from the field. Each team is shooting below 30% from beyond the arc in the postseason, and they have combined for only 2.8 three-pointers made in the initial 10 minutes of contests. In what should be a hard-fought first quarter, 42.5 seems a tad ambitious.
On the defensive side of the ball, these teams have allowed a total of 40 points and have contained opponents to 42.4% shooting from the field in the first quarter. After losing such a close contest on Friday, the Mercury must come out swinging in the opening quarter. However, we feel Phoenix’s shooting inefficiencies hold them back from heading into the second quarter with the lead.
Phoenix Mercury Halftime Moneyline (+110)
The Mercury led Game 1 by five points at halftime despite being road underdogs. Phoenix is averaging the most points through the first half, putting up 44.3 points in the first 20 minutes of basketball. The Mercury are 5-2-1 in the 2025 postseason in terms of leading at halftime.
Phoenix is connecting on 45.9% of attempts in the first half through eight postseason games, while sporting the highest offensive rating of any team (107.3). The Mercury are only allowing opponents to make 30.4% of their three-point attempts in the first 20 minutes of gameplay.
The offense for Phoenix has been clicking in the first half over the course of the 2025 playoffs, and should give them the edge in this contest. Despite this contest being played in Las Vegas, the Mercury appear to be in a fantastic spot to make it two consecutive games where they are in the lead going into the third quarter.
Phoenix Mercury Team Total Over 81.5 Points (-112)
Phoenix has faced the Las Vegas Aces on five occasions this season, including the playoffs. The Mercury have scored at least 82 points in four out of five contests, and have met the suggested point total of 81.5 in two out of three road games.
The Mercury are averaging 86.3 points in their last four contests, while connecting on 44.2% of their shots from the field and 38.6% from beyond the arc. Over the previous two games on the road, Phoenix is averaging 87.5 points and 13.5 baskets from deep.
The Mercury have scored at least 82 points in four consecutive contests and are 5-3 against that total in the postseason. Las Vegas is averaging 83.8 points over the last six contests, and has allowed its opponents to exceed 81.5 points in four out of the last six games.
Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces Over 164.5 Points (-112)
While we expect the Mercury to score more than 81.5 points, the Las Vegas Aces have shown that when playing at home, they will also fill up the box score. The Aces lead the postseason with an average of 87.2 points per game, while making over 48% of their attempts.
Las Vegas is putting up 89.2 points per game during the postseason when playing at home, and is second in averaging almost 24 points on made three-pointers. The Aces are tied for the highest offensive rating in the 2025 playoffs (110.3).
In the first game of the WNBA Finals, both teams combined for 176 points. Throughout their five matchups this season, the Mercury and Aces have exceeded 164.5 points three times.
Las Vegas Aces -3 (-110)
The Las Vegas Aces were trailing at halftime in Game 1 of the series, and turned it around in the second half to take a 1-0 lead going into Game 2. Las Vegas has won six of its nine playoff games. The Aces finished with a lead of 3.5+ points in four out of the six contests.
The Aces finished the season 11-10-1 against the spread (ATS) on the season when playing at home, and are 4-1 ATS versus Phoenix in five matchups. Las Vegas owns a record of 17-3 over the last 20 games played on its home floor.
Las Vegas not only has the benefit of their home crowd, but the Aces have only lost six games since the All-Star break, including the postseason. Las Vegas is scoring the most points of any team in the WNBA playoffs and owns the highest offensive rating of any team.
Enjoy the game today and good luck with your picks.
