Top 6 US Open Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

The 2023 US Open begins Monday, and we have highlighted several of our top picks for the men’s and women’s draws. Let’s take a look at our top picks and predictions for the 2023 US Open.

Best Bets for the 2023 US Open

Men’s Draw

Amid the dominance of the "Big Three" in men's tennis between Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal from the mid-2000's on, the US Open was always considered the most wide open of the four Grand Slams. Since 2009, six different men have claimed their first Grand Slam title at the US Open, with four of those (Juan Martin del Potro- 2009, Marin Cilic- 2014, Dominic Thiem- 2020, Daniil Medvedev- 2021) having their only major title coming from Flushing Meadows.

Carlos Alcaraz in 2022 made it three consecutive years where a first-time Grand Slam champion was crowned at the US Open, but some skeptics will say the door was opened much wider for him as Novak Djokovic was ineligible to participate because of his vaccination status. Thus, an aging Rafael Nadal was the only member of the "Big Three" in last year's event, as we got a glimpse of the future of men's tennis with Alcaraz, Frances Tiafoe, Casper Ruud, and Karen Khachanov all making the semifinals. The top two seeds in last year's event, Medvedev and Nadal, each lost in the fourth round and shockingly failed to make the quarterfinals.

With Djokovic back in the field, will this year's version of the US Open have more of a chalky feel, with an inevitable collision course between him and Alcaraz in the final? Or will a first-time Grand Slam winner capture the title for the fourth consecutive year?

Picks

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic did not play in any of the tune-up tournaments between the French Open and Wimbledon, but he felt compelled to join the loaded Western & Southern Open field in Cincinnati, that had three other current or former No. 1 ranked players, and all of the top-41 ranked players in the world. Tennis fans everywhere are thankful he participated, as he and Alcaraz played another instant classic in their fourth-ever meeting, with Djokovic's three-set victory taking nearly four hours. Djokovic has lost just four total matches outside of Grand Slams this year, and he is looking to win three of the four Grand Slams for the fourth time in his career.

Since 2018, Djokovic has won every major at least twice, except the US Open, but he will be motivated in this year's tournament after not being allowed to participate last year, and he is our pick to win as we like his path to the semifinals more than Alcaraz's.

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz has played a lot of tennis this year, and made the most of those opportunities, with a 53-6 record in 2023 and winning half of his 12 career titles this season. Alcaraz was denied his first Cincinnati title by Novak Djokovic in a grueling three-set classic that lasted nearly four hours, and Alcaraz needs to not let that tough loss seep into this Grand Slam, as he had a 7-5, 4-2 lead over Djokovic in that match. Alcaraz's 67 converted break points in Grand Slam matches this year is second only to Djokovic's 100. The tennis world waits in anticipation for a possible fifth head-to-head meeting between the two best players in the world in the US Open finals.

On one hand, many bettors will argue both Alcaraz's +190 odds and Djokovic's +125 odds are too short to be backed pre-tournament. However, the other side of the argument is that the two are head and shoulders above the rest of the world at the moment, but we give the slight futures edge to Djokovic, given that Alcaraz's path with Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in his quarter and a tough potential semifinal matchup against Daniil Medvedev is more difficult than what Djokovic will face.

Daniil Medvedev

Hard court is easily Medvedev's best surface, as his 82% win rate at the US Open and 75% winning percentage at the Australian Open are his highest two at any major. Medvedev's four Grand Slam finals appearances have come on hard courts, and he has won four hard court titles this year at Miami, Rotterdam, Qatar, and Dubai. Eight of the previous ten US Open winners were ranked in the top four, which fits Medvedev given his No. 3 world ranking.

If one is looking to take a flier on a winner other than Djokovic and Alcaraz, look no further than Medvedev, who has five wins against Djokovic, including a rare straight-set victory against him in the 2021 US Open final.

Women’s Draw

The Women's Draw at the US Open last year had plenty of upsets and surprises, but at the end the top two women in the Race to the WTA Finals at the time, No. 1 Iga Swiatek and No. 2 Ons Jabeur, competed for the final.

Since Serena Williams three-peated at the US Open from 2012-14, there have been seven different winners among the eight tournaments, with the only repeat winner in that span being Naomi Osaka (won in 2018 and 2020). The US Open has also crowned four first-time Grand Slam winners in that stretch (Flavia Pennetta- 2015, Sloane Stephens- 2017, Bianca Andreescu- 2019, Emma Raducanu- 2021). Last year's winner, Iga Swiatek, was perceived as more of a "veteran" Grand Slam Champion, with the title being her third at the time. Since then, Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka won the first two majors of the year, representing what some have called "The Big Three" in women's tennis (with Elena Rybakina included), while unseeded Marketa Vondrousova shocked the tennis world by capturing the French Open crown.

Are we in for more surprises with another first-time major winner, or will this be a year where one of the heavy favorites wins the US Open?

Picks

Aryna Sabalenka

World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka has made the US Open semifinals in back-to-back years, and is 25-5 on hard courts with two titles this season. Her 15-5 career US Open record is tied with her Australian Open record as her best two winning percentages of the four majors. She currently leads the 2023 WTA Singles race, not world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, thanks to her consistency with an Australian Open title and singles titles in Brisbane and Madrid.

Sabalenka may have just the one Grand Slam title to her name (2023 Australian Open), but she has made the semifinals or better at each of the last four majors, and her power on hard courts has us backing her +475 to win it all.

Iga Swiatek

So much for Iga Swiatek being a clay-court specialist. Many pegged Swiatek as a player likely to accumulate most of her Grand Slam titles at Roland Garros (she has won three of the last four French Open titles) ala Rafael Nadal, but Swiatek hushed those critics with a fantastic run to a US Open title last year. Swiatek successfully defended last year's French Open title with a win this year, and can use the momentum from a WTA-leading four titles this year, along with semifinal appearances at Indian Wells, Montreal, and Cincinnati, to defend her US Open title for the first time.

Swiatek has showed a slight crack in the armor with hard-court losses this summer to Jessica Pegula and Cori Gauff, so we are passing on her short +240 pre-tournament US Open odds as a result.

Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula was born in New York, and that will make her arguably the biggest fan favorite of the American crowd at Flushing Meadows the next two weeks. Pegula has not had a US Open result worse than the prior year in any of her last four appearances, and is looking to build on last year's run to the quarterfinals to make her first-ever US Open semifinal. She was not given any favors with an unusually tough first-round draw for a high-seeded player in Camila Giorgi, but Pegula has won eight of their ten head-to-head meetings, so perhaps a challenging but winnable first match is what she needs to get her juices going for a deep run.

Many women in the field face varying levels of pressure, but the pressure on Pegula would be at a fever pitch if she were to reach the quarterfinals, given that she is 0-6 in her previous six Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances. However, she is the most talented player in her quarter, and we expect her to break through for her first major semifinal and cashing the +175 futures tickets.

Women’s Profiles

Men’s Profiles