Top 7 PrizePicks Player Predictions: 49ers vs. Chiefs (Super Bowl)

Happy Super Bowl week to all of you reading this. In this article, I’ll preview a few of my favorite player prop angles worth considering via PrizePicks. Best of luck however you end up wagering this Super Bowl Sunday.

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Super Bowl LVIII Prize Picks Player Props

Here are my top PrizePicks player projections for Super Bowl LVIII.

Travis Kelce Over 71.5 Receiving Yards

Call it chalky, call it what you want, but Kelce always shows up in the postseason. He has recorded 71+ receiving yards in 12 consecutive playoff games. Need I really say more? In what was supposed to be a difficult matchup in the AFC title game, all Catching Kelce did was secure all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. This isn’t necessarily an easy matchup on paper, either, as the 49ers have allowed some big games against elite tight ends. We just saw Lions tight end Sam LaPorta finish with a 9/97 line in the NFC championship, and in Week 15, Trey McBride had 10 grabs for 102 yards. Given the Chiefs lack of trustworthy pass-catching options, Mahomes will be turning to Kelce more often than not when he drops back to pass.

Brandon Aiyuk Under 63.5 Receiving Yards

Taking the under on a receiver of Aiyuk’s caliber never feels right, but this is a good spot to do so. The Chiefs have flustered top receivers regularly this year, allowed the fourth fewest yards to the position, and were third in dropback EPA. Some of the big receivers contained against them include:

Tyreek Hill on two occasions: 8 catches for 62 and 5 catches for 62 yards
A.J. Brown: 1 catch for 8 yards
Davante Adams: 5 catches for 73 yards
Stefon Diggs twice: 4 catches for 24 yards and 3 catches for 21 yards

Zay Flowers was the first receiver to have a day against them in a long time. The last time they allowed a receiver over this mark was in Week 13 against the Green Bay Packers. Aiyuk has been out of sync with Purdy in the two playoff games as well, totaling just 100 yards on six receptions across the two games.

Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions

Alright, yes, it is a bit of a paradox to be taking an Over on another San Francisco receiver after preaching about how good the Chiefs secondary is, but Samuel is a unique case. He lines up all over the formation and Kyle Shanahan always finds a way to manufacture touches for him. Whether that is a touch-pass, or on the ground, Samuel will have plenty of looks coming his way and they are typically closer to the line of scrimmage.

His average depth of target in the regular season was just 6.6 yards. Against Detroit, when he caught eight balls for 89 yards, his aDOT was a paltry 4.4 yards. That’s perfect for this sort of prop though. We don’t care about the yards, just give us the grabs Deebo.

Brock Purdy Over 12.5 Rush Yards

Signal-callers are much more willing to lay it all on the line in these sort of games, as evident from Purdy in the NFC championship. He scampered his way to 48 yards in that contest. As stated above, the Chiefs do a great job in coverage, so there will be plenty of situations where Purdy could look to use his legs, and this is obviously a pretty low bar to eclipse. Kansas City allowed the most rush attempts and second-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks on the season as well.

The Niners dominated the regular season, but in the close games they did play, Purdy scrambled a decent amount.

Seven yards on three carries in a 17-19 loss to the Browns
19 yards on five carries in a 17-22 loss to the Vikings
57 yards on six carries in a 17-31 loss to the Bengals
Two yards on one carry in a non-competitive 19-33 loss to the Ravens
14 yards on six carries against the Packers in the Divisional Round
48 yards on five carries against the Lions in the NFC Championship

Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts

As mentioned in the Purdy rushing prop, wuarterbacks are much more likely to take off and run in these do-or-die games. Mahomes himself has proven to do so throughout his playoff career and has gone over this mark in nine of his past 15 playoff contests. Thanks to their pass rush, the 49ers forced the sixth-most rushing attempts out of QBs this season as well. Mahomes mobility plays a massive part in his excellence and he will use his legs when he needs to the most. As +2 underdogs, this game should remain tight throughout, forcing Mahomes to run in crunch time. Another possible outcome for this prop comes through kneel-downs to close out the half or the end of the game.

Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 Rush Yards

Isiah Pacheco has stepped up in the back half of this season for KC. Over his past six games, the Chiefs have relied heavily on his legs, and he has final rushing stat lines of 18/110, 11/26, 18/130, 24/89, 15/97 and 24/68 rush yards. This is a fantastic matchup for him to have another stellar game once again.

The Niners were 26th in rush EPA allowed during the regular season and were gashed by the David Montgomery (15/93) and Jahmyr Gibbs (12/45) duo in the NFC championship. Aaron Jones also had a magnificent game on the ground with 108 yards on 18 carries in the divisional round. Considering his recent run of success, along with the lack of pass-catching options for the Chiefs, this feels worthy of a play.

Harrison Butker Over 1.5 Field Goals Made

Nothing like closing the article and season out with a kicker prop. Andy Reid is traditionally known as a pretty conservative coach and will elect to kick in situations where other coaches (*cough* Dan Campbell) would go for it on fourth down. It makes sense when you have a trustworthy boot in Harrison Butker doing the kicking though. In his playoff career, he is 28/32, and has gone over this in eight of his past 12 playoff games. Including the playoffs, he has missed just two of his 42 field goal attempts this year.

The primary angle for this prop comes down to the Chiefs lackluster red zone offense that has slowed them down throughout the season. They were just 19th in red zone scoring percentage (touchdown only). Lastly, the kicking conditions literally couldn’t be any better. They’re kicking inside the friendly confines of the dome of Allegiant Stadium after all.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him on X @808Paperboi.