In the article below, I project the spread for every game of Week 0 using my ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). Using the ATL system, I provide my top picks of the week.
Thor Nystrom's College Football Power Rankings for Every Team >>
Hawai’i (+8.5) vs. Vanderbilt
ATL: UH -2.0
In the article below, I project the spread for every game of Week 0 using my ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). Using the ATL system, I provide my top picks of the week.
Thor Nystrom's College Football Power Rankings for Every Team >>
Hawai’i (+8.5) vs. Vanderbilt
ATL: UH -2.0
This is Timmy Chang's triumphant first game as HC at his alma mater. And the boys in the desert are giving his troops no respect.
Consider that Vanderbilt is coming off a 2-10 season with wins over Colorado State (3-9) and UConn (1-11). Vandy also lost to an FCS team. The Commodores were bottom-10 offensively, bottom-15 defensively, and bottom-25 special teams last season.
Now, the Commodores must travel 4,331 miles to play an opener in August against a team it has no tape on. Chang is new, as is most of his roster - Hawaii returns only six starters.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, very much looks the same. The Commodores get RB Re'Mahn Davis back from injury, and he's a legit talent. But Davis has also had durability concerns throughout his career. You have to think Vandy HC Clark Lea spent a few summer nights considering the idea of pitch counts for Davis to increase the odds he'll be active for 12 games.
Hawaii will have issues stopping Davis when he's on the field, just as Vandy's paper-mache secondary will have issues stopping Chang's Run 'n Shoot offense. Vanderbilt does not have the secondary depth to match up neatly with Hawaii's myriad receivers in space.
My numbers suggest the wrong team is favored here. Give me Hawaii to spring the outright upset.
Connecticut (+27.5) at Utah St.
ATL: USU -15.7
UConn, which hasn't won an FBS game since Oct. 26, 2019 (UMass), isn't likely to take a big step forward in Year 1 under HC Jim Mora Jr. (my numbers project the Huskies to win 2.2 games). But it would be surprising if the Huskies weren't more competitive.
You can't undersell how badly the last roster hated former HC Randy Edsall, who checked out prematurely besides. Mora and his staff of young assistants infuse energy and direction.
The offense has some clock-control potential with former four-star Penn State dual-threat Ta'Quan Roberson next to RB Nathan Carter. But though UConn has a little WR talent, Roberson's scattershot accuracy is likely to waste it if indeed he is the guy Mora tabs.
Utah State was one of college football's biggest surprises last year, finishing 11-3. The Aggies snuck up on the CFB world, starting a respectable 3-2 before finishing on an 8-1 heater.
But USU doesn't really profile as the team you want money on trusting to cover big spreads. The Aggies, who rank a humble No. 96 in my power rankings, won only two-of-11 games last year by 28 points or more. One of those wins was against an FCS team.
No doubt the Aggies will win this game. But UConn does enough in Mora's debut to stay within the number.
Wyoming (+11) at Illinois
ATL: Ill -5.0
As I wrote in our Big 10 preview, Illinois HC Bret Bielema has already succeeded in turning the Illini into a "Kirkland-brand Wisconsin." That entails a huge OL (average starter weighs 318 pounds), a clock-control offense with a physical downhill rushing attack, playing the field position game, not making mistakes on defense, and fielding a strong special teams unit.
And here's the super important point, as it comes to this handicap: A central tenet of this strategy involves shortening games - all games, regardless of opponent, as underdogs or as favorites - and, invariably, trying to pull out close games at the end. Teams like Wisconsin and Iowa aren't trying to blow anyone out - when it happens, it's either due to a ludicrous talent discrepancy, or circumstances.
Of Illinois' 12 games last season, nine were decided by 10 points or less (despite seven having double-digit spreads). The Illini beat only one team by more than 10: A 3-9 Northwestern squad in the regular-season finale that had already turned its attention to winter break.
On the other side, Wyoming HC Craig Bohl rarely has the talent advantage, and he never puts his team in bad spots. This line is Wyoming +11. In the last three seasons, Wyoming has lost by more than 11 points only three times.
With what I'm saying, you'd probably assume both men are better ATS as underdogs, right? Since 2015, Bohl is 35-25 ATS (58.3%) as an underdog. Last year, Illinois went 6-3 ATS as an underdog (4-1 ATS as away 'dog), and 1-2 ATS as a favorite.
Illinois is better than Wyoming, no doubt. I expect the Illini to win this game. But in a vacuum, the Illini are getting too much respect - my numbers say this line should be Illinois -5. And contextually, there are even more reasons to like the idea of getting double-digit points on whatever side the market wants to give you them on.
New Mexico St. (+9) vs. Nevada
(ATL: NMSU +7.2)
At long last, the market has finally caught on to how horrific this Nevada team is going to be. Without sanctions, Nevada essentially suffered a death-penalty offseason.
The Wolf Pack lost two stars to the NFL Draft (WR Romeo Doubs and TE Cole Turner), lost another in UDFA (QB Carson Strong), lost its coaching staff, and then lost almost 20 players in the transfer portal, most of whom were in the two-deep, more than half of whom were projected starters.
Things were so bad over the spring that the new coaching staff was struggling to fill linebacker drills. Walk-ons could be found throughout the two-deep. This team is nothing like the Nevada teams you remember from the past two years.
On the other side, Jerry Kill makes his debut at NMSU. Kill is a methodical program-builder. On offense, he wants to run the ball and control the clock. On defense, he wants to mind gaps and tackle, nothing fancy, force you to work for it down the field.
The Aggies are one of the worst teams in the nation. That isn't why we're betting on them. We're betting on them because Nevada has joined them. The Aggies are live 'dogs.
Nebraska (-13) vs. Northwestern (Ireland)
(ATL: Neb -13.7)
My line is right in line with the Vegas consensus. I lean Northwestern. But there are too many unknown variables at play to risk it. Fascinating game that is a must-watch for handicappers. It will provide a wealth of information about Scott Frost's prove-it-or-lose-it Huskers and Pat Fitzgerald's rebound-minded Wildcats.
FAU (-7) vs. Charlotte
(ATL: FAU -4.7)
Both of these teams started well last season before imploding down the stretch. My numbers lean Charlotte. I do, too. But I'd like to tune in for insight into each team's mindset before deciding on my 2022 investment strategy on each side.
North Texas (-1) at UTEP
(ATL: UNT -1.8)
Last season, UTEP went 0-6 against teams that finished in the top-93 of my final power rankings, and 7-0 against teams finished lower.
In my preseason power rankings, North Texas ranks... No. 97. So you probably shouldn't be surprised by this quasi-pick 'em line.
UTEP should be a little better this year. But what keeps me from betting this one is you could the say the same about UNT. If WRs Jyaire Shorter and Tommy Bush are back healthy following season-ending injuries last year, they'll join WR Rodric Burns in giving the Mean Green one of the nastiest receiving corps in the G5.
And here are all of my total win projections, odds, and picks.
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