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Top MLB Playoff Betting Picks for Monday, October 11th (2021)

by October 11, 2021

The Chicago White Sox used an offensive explosion last night to stay alive in their ALDS matchup with the Houston Astros, thus setting up another day where we have a full four-game playoff slate. Only one team has steeper than -125 moneyline odds, so there is a lot of value out there to be had.

Will the two American League series conclude tonight with Boston and Houston punching their tickets to the ALCS? Which teams will get the upper hand in the two pivotal NLCS Game 3’s? See which games make our cut of best bets today.

Here are my best bets for Monday’s MLB playoff action. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 188-156-8 (+15.73 units) 

Tampa Bay Rays ML (+105)

It’s not going to end like this, is it? A team that won 100 games in the regular season and set a franchise record with 857 runs is not going to bow out in four games to a 92 win team, are they? Boston’s beleaguered bullpen tried to give the game away in the eighth inning, allowing Tampa Bay to tie the game at 4-4 after leading 4-2. However, Nick Pivetta came up huge with four scoreless innings, and held the Rays offense down long enough for Christian Vazquez to walk it off in the 13th.

Per ESPN Stats and Info, the winner of Game 3 in a best-of-5 series in baseball has won the series 72% (39 of 54) of the time. However, these Rays are built differently and are not going down without a fight. The problem with using Pivetta for four innings yesterday is that he is no longer an option to start tonight’s game. Thus, Eduardo Rodriguez gets another turn to atone for his poor Game 1 performance, after he was lifted after 1.2 innings pitched and allowing two earned runs. As of this writing, the Rays had not yet announced a starting pitcher. However, we like their chances even if they resort to a modified bullpen game as they possess the league’s best stable of relievers.

Giants-Dodgers UNDER 7 runs (+100)

The San Francisco Giants are coming off a loss in Game 2, and now the Los Angeles Dodgers have the momentum and the homefield advantage. However, the Giants have the perfect man on the mound when coming off a loss, as the Giants went 12-2 when Alex Wood (10-4, 3.83) started a game after a loss in their previous game. On paper, the pitching matchup between he and Max Scherzer (15-4, 2.46) looks like a mismatch, but Wood should be able to match zeros early.

Wood has lost just once in his last 15 starts. He finished the regular season with six consecutive starts allowing two earned runs or fewer, and he allowed just two earned runs in his last 13 innings. Wood does a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark, as he has allowed just two home runs in his last eight starts.

Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts made an underrated adjustment in Game 2, moving Cody Bellinger to first base so that he could get Chris Taylor’s bat in the lineup. Taylor responded with a double in his first at-bat, en route to a 2-for-4 night. Roberts will likely employ the same strategy tonight, ad Taylor is 4-for-12 with two doubles and two home runs in his career against Wood.

Max Scherzer has held current Giants hitters to a combined .173 batting average, and has struck out 44 Giants hitters in 110 at-bats. He was solid in their wild card game against the Cardinals, but Roberts will look for him to complete more than the 4.1 innings he threw in that matchup.

The under is 3-0-1 in Wood’s last four road starts, and is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams. We like another low-scoring game in Game 3.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Baseball, Picks