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Top NFL Player Props: Week 12 (2021)

by November 26, 2021
Leonard Fournette

The Thanksgiving triple-header left us with a smaller menu of Sunday games, but there are still some pretty juicy player props. Let’s take a look at the juiciest.

  • Last week’s bets: 7-4
  • Season record: 30-21

View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Miles Sanders OVER 60.5 rushing yards
As I noted on Twitter earlier this week, from Week 3 to Week 7, Eagles running backs averaged just 10.6 carries a game. From Week 8 to Week 11, Eagles running backs averaged 30.8 carries a game. It’s been an offensive sea change for Philadelphia, and that doesn’t figure to change this week against the Giants, whose run defense ranks 30th in DVOA. Jordan Howard is out with a knee injury, so Sanders and Boston Scott will split most of the RB carries for the Eagles. Sanders got the start last week in his first game back from an ankle injury and ran 16 times for 94 yards against the Saints, who have one of the better run defenses in the league.

Leonard Fournette UNDER 51.5 rushing yards
The Buccaneers have really ramped up Fournette’s usage in the passing game this year, but his usage in the running game has tapered off in recent weeks. Fournette has failed to hit this number in three consecutive games, averaging 9.7 carries and 36.0 rushing yards over that span. The Colts’ run defense ranks second in DVOA. The Buccaneers often eschew the run, passing on 67% of their offensive snaps this season.

Najee Harris OVER 28.5 receiving yards
Harris has 49 receptions in 10 games. He’s failed to beat this number in three consecutive games, but when the Steelers and Bengals met in Week 3, Harris had 14 catches for 102 yards. The Bengals have allowed 99 targets to opposing running backs, the highest total in the league.

Ryan Tannehill UNDER 233.5 passing yards
The Titans face the Patriots this week, and the last quarterback to hit this number against New England was Dak Prescott in Week 6. The Pats held their last two opponents, the Browns, and Falcons, to 154 and 153 passing yards, respectively. Tannehill has failed to hit this number in two of his last three games. Titans WR Julio Jones remains out with a hamstring injury, and A.J. Brown is out with a chest injury.

Jakobi Meyers OVER 4.5 receptions
Meyers hasn’t hit this number since Week 7, but he’s had at least four receptions in 10 of 11 games this season. The Patriots face the Titans, who’ve given up a league-high 265 targets to wide receivers. Tennessee’s opponents have thrown passes on 63% of their offensive snaps, well above the league average of 59%.

Jauan Jennings UNDER 13.5 receiving yards
I’ll admit it: It feels like I’m walking into a trap with this one. Jennings has played nearly half of the 49ers’ offensive snaps in each of their last two games. He’s their No. 3 receiver now. Thing is, there isn’t much for the No. 3 receiver to do in this offense when TE George Kittle and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are all healthy and account for a huge percentage of team targets. Jennings has only caught a pass in four of the nine games he’s played, and he’s only topped this number twice. I generally don’t like betting player props that can be torpedoed with a single catch, but I’ll make an exception here.

Tyler Conklin UNDER 35.5 yards
The Vikings travel to the Bay Area to face the 49ers, who have the stingiest tight end defense in the league. San Francisco has given up a league-low 47 targets to opposing tight ends. The only tight end to top this number against the 49ers this season was the Lions’ T.J. Hockenson way back in Week 1. Conklin has failed to hit this number in each of his last two games and four of his last seven.

View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

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