UFC 276 is set to get underway this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. We are in store for one of the best cards in recent memory as we have two title fights and a multitude of other top-tier fighters to get the night started.
Below, I will walk through my three best prop bets for this stacked card.
These plays are one unit each or one percent of your betting bankroll. Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Jim Miller to Win via KO/TKO in Round 1 (+600)
We will be looking to start this night off with a bang as two long-time UFC veterans are set to square off in this welterweight bout between Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone. This fight may be one of our last chances to fade Cerrone as he has one foot out of the door at this point in his career.
Cerrone has now lost five of his last six fights, with the one non-loss being a majority-draw that got overturned to a no-contest after Niko Price got suspended by the Nevada State Athletic Commission for a positive drug test (marijuana, which is legal in Nevada but against the athletic commission’s laws). While the first three of those five losses were expected as he went against Ferguson/Gaethje/McGregor, it is the last two losses that should be a cause for concern for Cerrone’s backers.
In May of 2020, Cerrone lost to Anthony Pettis when Pettis was on the verge of retirement and had lost three of his last four fights prior (Pettis now fights in the PFL). A year later, Cerrone took on Alex Morono and got knocked out in the first round by a guy who had only one knockout in his 12-fight UFC career prior to that bout.
Of Cerrone’s last four losses, three have been via a first-round knockout. Meanwhile, veteran Jim Miller remains in good form as he has won each of his last two fights via knockout.
Andre Muniz via Decision (+600)
Immediately following the Miller/Cerrone fight, we have a middleweight bout between Uriah Hall and Andre Muniz. Opening as a large betting favorite, Muniz will look to remain perfect in the UFC and grab his seventh straight win (two of those prior six victories were part of the DWCS).
We have a clash of styles in this contest as Muniz will look to bring this to the mat while Hall will want to keep this on the feet. While I expect Muniz to win this fight, he may have difficulties finishing Hall while wrestling.
We saw this exact same scenario play out in Hall’s last fight against Sean Strickland. While Strickland went four-of-six on takedown attempts, he was unable to finish Hall and won the fight via unanimous decision.
That Hall/Strickland was a five-round scrap as well, while this fight will be just three rounds. Hall is tough as nails and has not been finished in five straight fights.
This is by far Muniz’s biggest test of his career, but he should be ready for it and I believe it will be via decision as he should just dominate the fight on the mat.
Jalin Turner via Submission (+700)
In the final fight of the prelims, we have a lightweight bout between Brad Riddell and Jalin Turner. This should be a fascinating fight as Riddell will most likely have to bring this scrap to the mat as he is giving up eight inches in height and six inches in reach to Jalin Turner.
The problem for Riddell is that if he does this, Turner may be able to easily counter and beat him via submission. We have seen this play out in two of Turner’s last three fights as he won via rear naked choke against Uros Medic and Brok Weaver.
I do not really see an alley way for Riddell to win this fight unless it is on the ground, which gives us tremendous value in backing Turner on the mat. If the fight is fought on the ground for the majority of the scrap, this +700 prop will be just as live as it was for Turner’s last two fights.
Best of luck!
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