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UFC 304 Odds & Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)

The Co-op Live arena in Manchester will host Leon Edwards' third title defense against Belal Muhammad. The card is loaded with stars from top to bottom, and the two title fights are rematches, which adds suspense to the action. The co-main event is an interim title fight between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. It is a normal start time despite being across the pond, with the early prelims beginning at 6:15 p.m. EDT and the main card at 10 p.m. EDT.

The card has 14 fights, so there will be plenty of action. I will give you my favorite longshot props that can spice up the card. Be careful to limit the risk when placing these bets; they are high-risk and high-reward wagers.

UFC 304 Longshot Prop Bet (2024)

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Oban Elliott (+120) vs. Preston Parsons (142)

Oban Elliott made his UFC debut in February with a unanimous decision victory over Val Woodburn. He landed three takedowns in that fight and tripled the significant strikes, but he also got knocked down once. However, he recovered well and was able to take the fight on the scorecards.

Elliott will be fighting Preston Parsons, who is 2-2 since entering the UFC and 11-4 overall. He will be in enemy territory to take on the "Welsh Gangster." The odds seem off for this fight and it should be closer to a pick 'em. Both men utilize a heavy grappling approach, but Elliott has cleaner striking. Elliott can rock Parsons on the feet and use his grappling to secure the victory or find a submission via the takedown. Parsons is skilled in BJJ but has been submitted before and must be cautious of Elliott's ground game. If you wanted a slightly safer play, Elliott by knockout or submission at +330 would fit that criteria.

Bet: Oban Elliott To Win by Submission (+1000)


Muhammad Mokaev (-155) vs. Manel Kape (+130)

You can find a full preview for this fight on my author page, which includes a more detailed breakdown. Manel Kape is a powerful flyweight and can put anyone's lights out. He is highly motivated for this fight, especially following the altercation with Mokaev at the hotel on Wednesday and due to his numerous canceled bouts in the past couple of years. He needs a big win, and Mokaev is the perfect opponent.

Mokaev is all pressure from the opening second, but he tends to get tired. He got tired in the third round of his last fight against Alex Perez, but Perez was unable to land a significant strike to hurt Mokaev. Perez defended the takedown well but did not do enough damage to Mokaev to make him pay for only landing three of 20 takedowns. Manel Kape will make any fighter pay for shooting takedowns, especially with his knees and kicks. Mokaev will get tested against another high-level prospect, and he may lose his undefeated record.

Bet: Manel Kape To Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+400)

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