UFC 313 Best Bets: Longshots & Sleepers (2025)

This weekend's UFC 313 card in Las Vegas, Nevada should be a banger, featuring a title fight and a pair of additional ranked bouts. From a sports betting perspective, I've narrowed in on a couple of longshot bets for Saturday's event.

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UFC 313 Longshot Prop Bets (2025)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alex Pereira (-118) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-102)

All roads lead to a title fight in the Light Heavyweight division, as Brazil's Alex Pereira (champion) makes his fourth title defense against Russia's Magomed Ankalaev (No. 1-ranked contender). The champ is a narrow -118 Moneyline favorite to win this fight, while the challenging Ankalaev comes back at -102 to win his third straight contest.

I do believe Ankalaev is deserving of this title shot, but I think we can all objectively agree he's nowhere near as battle-tested as the champion. Still, I want to give Ankalaev his props and say that he is undoubtedly a top-five fighter in this weight class.

With all that said, I expect to see Pereira get the win in the middle rounds. Ankalaev does an excellent job of not getting hit, as only 42% of his opponents' strike attempts are landing. But it's only a matter of time until Pereira, who has four straight knockout wins, starts finding the powerful blows. At 6/1 odds, I think it's worth a sprinkle to say Pereira ends this fight in round three or round four.

Bet: Alex Pereira to Win in Rounds 3-4 (+600)

Jalin Turner (+110) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (-130)

The main card features an under-the-radar clash in the Lightweight division between Jalin Turner (No. 13-ranked) and Ignacio Bahamondes (unranked). We should expect to see some fireworks in this one, as these fighters have combined for 21 knockouts in their 43 professional fights.

I'm going to throw a few bucks on Bahamondes to collect a first-round win (which will likely come by knockout) at +450. The Chilean brawler is riding a two-fight winning streak, where he's registered consecutive first-round knockouts. The first came against Christos Giagos (kick) in April 2024. The more recent knockout was against Manuel Torres (punch) at the Sphere in Vegas in September 2024.

This guy is truly a knockout artist, entering the weekend at 16-5-0 with 11 professional knockouts. Meanwhile, Turner is no stranger to getting his lights put out. Across his 14-8-0 career, the American has suffered four knockout losses. His opponents are landing 59% of their strike attempts - not a great formula when standing across from a guy like Bahamondes. With this being a three-round fight, look for a sense of urgency from both fighters. I'll sprinkle a little on Bahamondes to get the first-round finish on Saturday night.

Bet: Round of Finish: Ignacio Bahamondes Round 1 (+450)

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