The UFC 316 card from Newark, New Jersey, this weekend is littered with marquee matchups, but one of the under-the-radar clashes on the main card is this Bantamweight showdown between Mario Bautista (No. 10) and Patchy Mix.
Let's get into the nitty-gritty of this 135-pound battle, with my favorite wager and betting analysis.
Read on for our top UFC 316 picks and predictions.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
UFC 316 Picks: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Mario Bautista (15-2-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
America's Mario Bautista is on the rise in the UFC, as he's rattled off seven consecutive victories en route to securing a No. 10 ranking in the Bantamweight division. The 31-year-old's last three fights have seen him take care of Da'Mon Blackshear (U-DEC), Ricky Simon (U-DEC) and the recently retired Jose Aldo (S-DEC).
Bautista was out-struck 51-49 in the recent win against Aldo, but two of the three judges scored the fight 29-28 in his favor. He went 0-10 on takedown attempts and landed only 34% of his significant strikes, but did manage 7:15 worth of control time.
Aldo's a defensive legend, so the lousy offensive metrics last time out aren't a true reflection of Bautista's abilities. He's typically averaging 5.33 significant strikes per minute at a 47% clip, while absorbing only 3.91 strikes per 60 seconds.
The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is active with his wrestling, landing 1.92 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's successful on 33% of those attempts, while fending off 66% of opposing takedown attempts.
Betting Profile: Patchy Mix (20-1-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
"No Love" Patchy Mix couldn't ask for a better start to his MMA career, as he's 20-1-0 out of the gate. He was most recently with Bellator, where he amassed a 9-1-0 record with the promotion. Following his lone loss to Juan Archuleta (U-DEC) in September of 2020, the now-31-year-old has logged eight consecutive victories.
Mix has a 75% finishing rate in his MMA career, racking up 13 submissions and a pair of knockouts in 20 victories. He stands at 5-foot-11 with a 71.5-inch reach and is fighting out of Las Vegas, NV.
Bottom Line
Patchy Mix, the former Bellator champion, enters his UFC debut as a sizable -185 Moneyline favorite. Mario Bautista comes back at +154 to secure the win, which would be his eighth consecutive victory with the promotion.
I'm riding with Mix to emerge victorious in his UFC debut, and I'll take him to do so by decision at +180. He should have a decent edge in grappling, but nothing too crazy considering Bautista is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and has six submissions of his own.
With that said, the 10th-ranked Bantamweight has been susceptible to takedowns in recent history, conceding at least one takedown in three of his last four fights. In his last four outings, Bautista owns a 66% takedown defense rate (14-21), which is directly on par with his career mark of 66%.
I don't think Bautista will get submitted, but I do expect Mix to find enough grappling success to sway the judges. When factoring in his two-inch height and 2.5-inch reach advantages, combined with top-tier wrestling, it appears backing Mix to get his hand raised by decision is the best wager on the board for this bout.
Bet: Patchy Mix to Win by Decision (+180)
