A pair of UFC championship belts are on the line on Saturday night, and all roads lead to a Bantamweight title rematch between Merab Dvalishvili (Champion and Sean O'Malley (No. 1). Dvalishvili cruised to a five-round unanimous-decision victory in their first bout, and he's a massive -285 Moneyline favorite to retain the strap in his second title defense. Below, I'll dive into each fighter's recent form, touch on their key metrics and wrap up with my betting analysis for the UFC 316 main event from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Read on for our top UFC 316 picks and predictions.
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UFC 316 Picks: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
You have to go back to April of 2018 to find the last blemish on Merab Dvalishvili's resume, a submission loss (Guillotine Choke) to Ricky Simon in the third round. Since then, the champ has rattled off 12 consecutive wins, including a pair of title fight victories over Sean O'Malley (U-DEC) and Umar Nurmagomedov (U-DEC). The Georgian is very battle-tested as well, as his three prior victories came against notable brawlers in Jose Aldo (U-DEC), Petr Yan (U-DEC) and Henry Cejudo (U-DEC).
If you've watched Dvalishvili at all, you know he is a high-volume wrestler with an insane gas tank. He's averaging 5.89 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing his attempts at a 35% clip. Dvalishvili is fending off opposing attempts at an 82% success rate. In terms of his striking, the 34-year-old is landing 4.36 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.51 strikes per minute. Dvalishvili is 19-4-0 in his career, logging 15 decisions, three knockouts and one submission.
Betting Profile: Sean O'Malley (18-2-0, 1 No Contest)
Last Five Fights: L-W-W-W-NC
"Suga" Sean O'Malley has been idle since losing the strap to Dvalishvili back in September of 2024, partially due to going under the knife to repair a torn labrum in his left hip. Before the unanimous-decision loss, O'Malley had logged six wins in seven trips to the octagon, with the outlier being a no contest result against Pedro Munhoz. The 30-year-old has a notable victory against Petr Yan (S-DEC), as well as championship wins over Aljamain Sterling (TKO/KO - Punches) and Marlon Vera (U-DEC).
The win over Vera saw O'Malley out-strike his opponent 230-89. He is a high-volume striker, so this onslaught wasn't too surprising. O'Malley is averaging 6.70 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.48 strikes per minute. The American isn't too active in the takedown department, where he's landing only 0.29 takedowns per 15 minutes.
O'Malley is shutting down 61% of opposing takedown attempts, and he'll have to do much better in that area against a fierce grappler of Dvalishvili's caliber. O'Malley is now 18-2-0 with 12 knockouts, five decisions and one submission.
Bottom Line
When these bantamweights met back in September of 2024, it was a dominant victory by Dvalishvili. He out-struck his opponent (82-47), while also winning the takedown battle (6-0) and the ground control metric (10:03-0:00). The champ is a sizable -285 Moneyline favorite to retain the belt, while O’Malley comes back at +230 to reclaim UFC gold.
I'm going to take a flier on O'Malley to cover the point spread (+5.5) on Saturday night. I'm not overly confident he'll win outright, but I do expect him to keep the fight close and win a round or two, or maybe even force a split-decision. In the initial fight, the judges scored the fight 49-46, 48-47, 48-47, which equates to a total of 5.0 points in favor of Dvalishvili. O'Malley would've covered this +5.5 mark in that fight.
O'Malley has been dialed in this camp, and with a healthy hip, he should be training takedown defense to the max. If the challenger can somewhat neutralize Dvalishvili's wrestling, which, of course, is a tall task, then he's going to be competitive on Saturday night. The Georgian is pretty much a one-trick pony, which I believe gives O'Malley an advantage if he can adjust.
Plus, there's always a chance O'Malley can simply win outright since he is a bona fide knockout artist with 12 knockouts in 18 professional wins. Give me O'Malley to cover the +5.5 point spread in Newark on Saturday.
Bet: Sean O'Malley +5.5 (-135)
