The UFC returns to the Fight Capital of the World this weekend to put on a loaded UFC 326 event. The card is littered with quality fights, with all roads leading to a BMF title fight at 155 Lbs. between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira.
I'm heading to the prelims in this piece, where I've narrowed in on three of the bouts from a sports betting angle. Here are my top UFC 326 bets for the prelims.
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UFC 326 Prelims Card Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cody Garbrandt (+130) vs. Xiao Long (-155)
Let's pick it up in the final prelim of the night and work our way backwards. The preliminary main event comes in the Bantamweight division, with Cody Garbrandt taking on Xiao Long. The former UFC champion is a moderate +130 underdog, while his Chinese counterpart is now out to a -155 favorite.
I'm jumping on Xiao Long before this price gets too hefty. Mainly, it's because I have no interest in putting my hard-earned dollars on Cody Garbrandt in lord's year of 2026. The former champ has been on a downward slide for nearly a decade, going just 3-7 since his championship win over Dominick Cruz in December 2016. In his defense, he has fought the cream of the crop throughout his downfall. However, I still don't think Garbrandt is in a good spot to snap his two-fight slide on Saturday night.
Keeping it with the anti-Garbrandt argument, we just haven't seen the aging veteran put the pressure on his opponents recently. His significant strikes per minute throughout his career have dipped to just 2.88, compared to Long's mark of 5.25. I think we're going to see Long apply pressure, and ultimately be the one to set the pace.
Long, who has a mediocre 50% strike defense rate, does get hit a lot, but he only has three knockout losses in his 27-10-0 career. Unless Garbrandt catches him cleanly and puts Long to sleep-which I don't even know if the American has that his arsenal at this point in his career-then we should see Long take care of business. I'll lay the juice and back Xiao Long. He's in better form, he's the better wrestler, and you could even make the argument that he's the more dangerous striker right now.
Pick: Xiao Long Moneyline (-155)
Donte Johnson (-800) vs. Cody Brundage (+550)
This Middleweight clash between Donte Johnson and Cody Brundage should be a banger. Johnson, who earned his way to the UFC via the Dana White Contender Series (DWCS), is putting his perfect 7-0-0 record on the line Saturday. He's the biggest favorite on the card at -800, and he'll be taking on Cody Brundage, who has lost two straight bouts. The 31-year-old Brundage comes back at +550 to get his hand raised.
Donte Johnson's stamina hasn't been tested yet. Of his seven professional fights, he has six first-round knockouts and a second-round submission. But hey, who needs stamina when you can just bury your opponent within five minutes?
I mention this because I think Cody Brundage's best chance to pull off the upset would be to drag this fight into the later rounds and test Johnson's cardio. However, this is Cody Brundage that we're talking about. Throughout his 11-8-1 (1 NC) career, 14 fights have failed to go to the judges' scorecards. He may step into the cage on Saturday night and just go to war with Johnson.
The oddsmakers say this fight is roughly a coin flip to start the second round (Yes: -105, No: -125). I think we're going to see these 185-pounders get after it early and often, and I'm going to wager that someone gets knocked out in the first round. There's a good chance that it's Brundage who goes down, as his strike defense rate is only 49%. That's not a great metric to have when the heavy-handed Johnson is standing across from you. I'll take the fight not to see the second round at -125.
Pick: Will Fight Start Round 2: No (-125)
Ricky Turcios (+150) vs. Alberto Montes (-180)
This will be Alberto Montes' UFC debut, after earning a contract with the promotion through a DWCS victory over Carlos Calderon (SUB-Anaconda) back in October 2024. Montes is a sizable -180 moneyline favorite against Ricky Turcios, who is looking to snap a two-fight slide.
I'm going to take a shot and sprinkle on Alberto Montes to lock in a submission victory Saturday evening. His grappling and submission skills are his strength, which is exemplified by the fact that he has six submission victories across his 10-1-0 professional career. His last three fights have all been submission wins.
This appears to be a decent matchup for Montes, as he'll take on Ricky Turcios, who owns a horrendous 44% takedown defense rate. He has conceded 13 takedowns across his last three fights (2, 4, 7). Turcios is a bit of a wild card in the cage, but I don't think it'll be enough to throw off Montes. This matchup plays right into his strengths, and I think he leans on his ground game to secure the win in his debut. Give me Montes by submission at +250.
Pick: Alberto Montes To Win By Submission (+250)
