UFC Fight Night Barboza vs. Yusuff: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

We had an incredible UFC Fight Night card last week!

Bobby Green finally got his moment to shine, and cashing in on it was a perfect way to culminate an extremely underrated card. Green winning and Drew Dober securing a KO/TKO in the first round were our best plays of the card.

Let’s keep the momentum going into this weekend. Let’s dive in!

UFC Fight Night Barboza vs. Yusuff: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Record

ML: 44-36-2 (+11.50 units)
Props: 13-31-1 (-1.30 units)
Parlays: 3-25 (-4.87 units)
Overall: +5.33 units

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Emily Ducote (-375) vs. Ashley Yoder (+295)

Emily Ducote

Dist Acc Off: 45.2%
Dist Att/Min: 14.03
Dist Def: 60%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 283 distance strikes)
Control % Off: .6%
Control % Def: .7%

Ashley Yoder has not fought in the UFC since 2019, so we could not make an advanced statistics profile. Meanwhile, Emily Ducote has fought an unreal 44 minutes at a distance in just three fights. She has no inclination to grapple and just wants to strike. Ducote’s pressure and pace will be too much for Yoder, who has a record of 3-7 in the UFC.

Bet: Emily Ducote (-375)

Johnathan Martinez (-112) vs. Adrian Yanez (-108)

Johnathan Martinez

Dist Acc Off: 55.4%
Dist Att/Min: 10.01
Dist Def: 59%
KD%: .9% (2 KDs out of 217 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 19.2%
Control % Def: 9.1%

Adrian Yanez

Dist Acc Off: 39.4%
Dist Att/Min: 18.95
Dist Def: 61%
KD%: .9% (2 KDs out of 212 distance strikes)
Control % Off: .4%
Control % Def: .6%

This fight will go one of two ways. Either Jonathan Martinez’s accuracy will catch Adrian Yanez, or Yanez’s pressure and volume will overwhelm Martinez. Both fighters have respectable distance defense and are rarely controlled. Yanez is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Rob Font, the first loss of his career. Martinez is on a five-fight winning streak. This is arguably the closest fight on the card. I will lean Martinez. I believe he will land the cleaner, more concise shots.

Bet: Johnathan Martinez (-112)

TJ Brown (-198) vs. Darren Elkins (+164)

TJ Brown

Dist Acc Off: 46.7%
Dist Att/Min: 18.98
Dist Def: 51%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 131 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 40.8%
Control % Def: 23.1%

Darren Elkins

Dist Acc Off: 29.6%
Dist Att/Min: 15.53
Dist Def: 55%
KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 91 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 28.4%
Control % Def: 22.8%

TJ Brown has elite offensive control and will look to implement it in this fight. I thought Darren Elkins would have a much lower-distance defense, but shockingly, he is better than Brown at a distance. Elkins does have horrendous accuracy and usually uses his volume to make up for it. This is the kind of fight that I could see going either way.

Bet: Darren Elkins (+164)

Sodiq Yusuff (-170) vs. Edson Barboza (+142)

Sodiq Yusuff

Dist Acc Off: 42.8%
Dist Att/Min: 11.77
Dist Def: 62%
KD%: .9% (2 KDS out of 219 distance strikes)
Control % Off: 16.3%
Control % Def: 14.1%

Edson Barboza

Dist Acc Off: 46.4%
Dist Att/Min: 12.67
Dist Def: 54%
KD%: 1.2% (2 KDs out of 163 distance strikes)
Control % Off: .1%
Control % Def: 30.1%

This is an extremely underrated main event, and a few things stand out that must be addressed. Edson Barboza’s abysmal control % defense is skewed by the Bryce Mitchell fight. Sodiq Yusuff has a respectable 16.3% control % offense, but he is not the level of grappler Mitchell is. Yusuff has only lost once in the last five years, and that was to Arnold Allen, the only fighter he has fought who is on the same level as Barboza.

Barboza is coming off an incredible first-round knockout of Billy Quarantillo. This fight pushed back the narrative that Barboza is a stepping-stone for younger fighters trying to make a name for themselves. The most concerning thing is that Yusuff has been in the UFC for five years, has not risen through the ranks quickly and was unsuccessful against his first top-level opponent.

Bet: Edson Barboza (+142)

The Bets

ML Parlay:

Edson Barboza (+142)
Johnathan Martinez (-112)

Parlay Odds: +358 for 2u

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!