UMBC vs. Howard: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for UMBC vs. Howard.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: UMBC vs. Howard

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

UMBC 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

UMBC entered the 2025-26 season picked seventh in the nine-team America East. They leave it on a 12-game win streak with the America East title, a perfect 11-0 record in home conference play, and one of the most compelling late-season runs in the country. The turnaround is tied directly to head coach Jim Ferry’s decision to slide 6-10 Spaniard Jose Roberto Tanchyn into the starting lineup in January. Over the final 11 games, Tanchyn averaged nearly 25 minutes per night, and the team played at the equivalent of the nation’s 86th-best team during that stretch, compared to 264th prior. He ranks 27th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, deters shots at the rim, and shoots and operates off the bounce in a way that creates problems at every position matchup. The three-guard combination of Jah’likai King (14.3 PPG), DJ Armstrong (12.6 PPG), and Ace Valentine (11.9 PPG, 4.0 APG) drives a dribble-drive-and-kick offense that feasts on non-at-the-rim paint twos, where the Retrievers rank in the 94th percentile for attempt rate and 96th percentile for efficiency. Armstrong was the title game MVP, going 7-for-9 from three for 33 points in the win over Vermont. UMBC is 17-1 when shooting 37 percent or better from three. The big question is schedule. The Retrievers played the easiest strength of schedule in the entire country. They have not beaten a KenPom top-200 team since December 21 and have not beaten a top-40 team all season, let alone top-100. The recency of the dominance will likely get them underseeded relative to what they have actually become, but it's hard to say the schedule has prepared them for the level up they'll face in the tournament, ranking 351st in Haslametrics' paper tiger factor.

Howard 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Howard men’s basketball is a MEAC dynasty by any reasonable standard. The Bison claimed their third MEAC tournament title in four seasons on Saturday, beating North Carolina Central 70-63, and will head back to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in that same span under head coach Kenneth Blakney. Howard won the MEAC regular-season title outright at 11-3 and entered Birmingham as the prohibitive favorite, finishing with a 23-10 overall record.

The defensive identity is what separates this team from the rest of the conference. KenPom has Howard nearly 10 points per 100 possessions better than any other MEAC team in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the Bison rank in the top 30 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. They run a zone press at a high rate, generating the highest defensive turnover rate in the league and a top-10 rate nationally. Their Princeton-style offense, cutting at the highest rate in the country while initiating pick-and-roll at the first percentile nationally, is unlike anything most opponents see. Grad transfer Bryce Harris is the MEAC Player of the Year, a multi-dimensional scorer who can guard multiple positions. Cedric Taylor III pairs with Harris to form a frontcourt that averages a combined 34 points and 13 rebounds. Cam Gillus ran the offense and had 25 points in the semifinal alone.

The warts are real though. Howard ranks 283rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and inconsistency on that end of the floor will be tested immediately in the first round. Howard lost 93-56 against Duke, 80-60 against Northwestern, and 88-67 against Missouri in its three games against high-major programs. Howard’s 364th-ranked strength of schedule doesn't provide much trust that his team can shock the world with a big upset early.

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