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The 2020 NFL Draft is shaping up to be the next major sports betting event on the calendar. Who could have ever imagined we’d be here? At any rate, with so many sports on coronavirus lockdown, the NFL Draft has actually become a really exciting event for sports betting. If you take a quick gander through the betting lines at 888Sport, BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings, there are literally hundreds of betting lines on the board.
One of the prop bets of interest pits Alabama and LSU head-to-head for who’ll have more first-round picks. Alabama is favored, but are they the best bet, or is there value with LSU?
Which School Will Have More Players Drafted In The First Round?
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook
Alabama’s Potential First-Round Picks
Alabama is favored for this prop for a good reason. They have a parade of players who are almost surefire locks to be first-round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft. In the “guarantee” category, we’re looking at quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, offensive lineman Jedrick Wills Jr., wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, and safety Xavier McKinney.
Some might make a small case that McKinney isn’t as much of a lock as the first four, but I still think we’d need some kind of a really bizarre situation for McKinney to miss the first round. He’s arguably the top safety on the board behind Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons.
Beyond that, the only other fringe players I see for the Tide is cornerback Trevon Diggs and defensive end Terrell Lewis. Realistically, I would say Lewis is very likely a second-rounder while Diggs is a toss-up. If we start seeing an earlier-than-expected run on cornerbacks, maybe he sneaks into the first round. Otherwise, he’s a second-rounder.
That means the total tally for Alabama is a solid five with a possible sixth player. Let’s take a look and see what LSU looks like.
LSU’s Potential First-Round Picks
When we’re looking at LSU, the Tigers are expected to have the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, as Joe Burrow is a -10000 favorite to go first overall on 888Sport. From there, the Tigers have a number of players who we expect to also go in the first round. That crew includes edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, cornerback Kristian Fulton, and linebacker Patrick Queen.
Where we start to get into the fringes is with wide receiver Justin Jefferson and safety Grant Delpit. I would say that Jefferson is a pretty good bet to go in the first round, but Delpit is more likely to be an early second-rounder. That puts us at five for LSU, pretty much tying Alabama.
What’s The Best Bet?
Alabama seems like the safer play here because I can count five players that are going in the first round very solidly, and they’ve maybe got a sixth. As for LSU, we’re probably also going to see five, but I wouldn’t say it’s as rock-solid as Alabama. For one, Jefferson is more of a maybe in my books. He’s quite likely going to go in the first round, but there are so many good wide receivers in this draft that we don’t know how high teams are on each of them. And with so much depth, teams might opt to go on a run for corners in the first round and wait on wide receivers since there are more options at the position on the board.
At the end of the day, I would guess that this bet pushes, but I don’t see LSU winning. For me, this is either an Alabama bet or nothing.