We continue rolling through the WNBA season with the All-Star game just around the corner. I'll be continuing my twice-a-week articles – Saturdays and Mondays – to give you my best bets and hopefully provide some winners. Last year in this series we had a profitable season and so far with the return, we're keeping our head above water. Of course as a reminder, I must advise to shop around for the best props and keep track of lineup news. Staying on top of news is a great way to stay ahead of the market, and shopping around will help with seasonal ROI. Anyway, let’s get to the best WNBA picks and bets for Monday.
Best WNBA Picks & Bets for Monday
Last Time: 1-1 | Season: 11-7 | Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Minnesota Lynx at Chicago Sky WNBA Picks
Don't call it deja vu as the Minnesota Lynx take on the Chicago Sky for the second consecutive game at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. The Lynx sit as a 10.5-point favorite with the total around 161.5 points.
Both numbers are changed from last game in favor of the Sky and it makes sense. On Saturday, the Sky shocked the best team in the WNBA with an 87-81 win. Chicago had four different double-digit scorers, led by Ariel Atkins' 27 and Angel Reese's 19 but the shocking number was on the glass. The Lynx were out-rebounded 45-28 in their last bout and I'm not sure if that's going to change overnight. Sure, teams can be off shooting any given night but the Sky only shot 26 percent from deep this past weekend so it's not like they were on fire.
I do expect the Lynx offense to step up more than shooting under 40 percent from the field but you have to hand it to Tyler Marsh's squad that has battled the Lynx in both outings this year. If Chicago can continue its rebounding ways, this might be another battle. Still, I'm not going to overthink this one. Minnesota's offense is not only due for positive regression after both matchups but still face one of the worst defenses in the league, and the worst from the perimeter. With second-chance looks, I do expect Chicago to stay in this and keep it interesting but I'm going right back to the well here, and taking the points.
Pick: Over 161.5 Total Points (-105)
Phoenix Mercury at Golden State Valkyries WNBA Picks
Another team we saw Saturday, the Valkyries, finally return home as they host the 14-6 Phoenix Mercury this evening. Golden State is a slight 1.5-point favorite with the total hovering around 158.5 points. Golden State fell to Las Vegas on Saturday in a thrilling 104-102 battle while Phoenix has the rest advantage, coming off a 79-71 win over the Lynx on Wednesday.
What these two teams have in common is their defense, both ranking in the top four on the season and in the last 10 games. What they also have is recent improvements to their offenses that put both squads in the top three over recent play so this should be an awesome battle. Both teams are high fliers from deep with Phoenix and Golden State ranking first and second in percentage of points coming from deep, respectively. Neither team will get much off turnovers and the Mercury are elite at limiting second chance points.
So the question comes down to the perimeter. Both squads sit in the top half of opponent 3pt shooting percentage but both are in the bottom half of attempted threes allowed per game so there will be some variance in this one. When these two teams went toe-to-toe back in June, Phoenix won that battle going 11-of-25 from deep led by Satou Sabally and Sami Whitcomb. The Valkyries countered with nine made threes, not enough in an 86-77 loss.
Tonight, I expect it to be another battle but for the defenses to step up. These are two different teams over the last month of play and I imagine that shows. Golden State is playing their first home game in their last five contests but Phoenix has a major rest advantage. I expect it to come down to the wire but unless there's overtime, I'd be surprised if the Over hits.
Pick: Under 158.5 Total Points (-110)
