The WNBA Finals have been phenomenal so far, and the series is tied 2-2 heading into Game 5. The Valkyries are slight home favorites, but oddsmakers are far from convinced that they will ultimately emerge victorious. Here are the best WNBA picks for Game 5 of the WNBA Finals.
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Monday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries
My best play is the under. Two of the first four games in this series have seen both teams finish with fewer than 70 points, and only one contest has featured 150+ points. That game also happened to be the biggest blowout of the series, as the Dream ultimately won 97-71.
The Valkyries are allowing just 78.1 points per game this postseason. That's only three more points per game than the 75.1 they allowed during the regular season. This defense has held the Dream to 34% or worse from the field in three of the first four games of the WNBA Finals.
Meanwhile, the Dream have allowed no more than 71 points in this series. Including the regular season, the Dream have allowed the Valkyries to top 78 points only once in seven games. While the Dream allowed an average of 84.5 points per game during the regular season, the Valkyries’ shooting is a concern. The offense shot just 42.2% during the regular season, the worst mark in the league, and has shot 36% or worse in every game of this series.
The Valkyries used a huge defensive performance in Game 4 to tie the series. Yet, even with a 16-point lead, they won by just five points. The Dream are just impossible to get rid of, with their last loss of more than five points coming to the Fire on August 28th.
While the Valkyries are 1-1 at home in this series, they went 17-5 at home in the regular season and have lost only once at home in the postseason. Home-court advantage is real for the Valkyries, even against a Dream team that went 15-7 on the road in the regular season.
All that said, four of the Valkyries’ five wins against the Dream this season have been by five points or fewer. As one of the worst offensive teams, the Valkyries don’t blow anyone out easily, especially a team as strong defensively as the Dream. The Valkyries will get the win, but it will be close. And rather than making a higher-risk, lower-reward play on the Valkyries to cover 1.5 points, I'll back them to win by 1-5 points for a much better payout.
For my final play, I'm backing neither team to win every quarter, just like I did in Game 2. This series has been too competitive so far, and with the spread set at just 1.5 points, I expect another back-and-forth affair.
The Valkyries led at the end of every quarter in Game 4, and the Dream led at the end of every quarter in Game 3. However, neither team hit this prop in either of the first two games.
Additionally, while the Valkyries led at the end of every quarter the last time these two played, two of those leads were just five points. That means the Dream were within two possessions of tying or taking the lead in at least one of those quarters. And even in the game where the Dream won by 26, they led by just six at halftime, a lead that ultimately evaporated early in the third quarter when the Valkyries tied things up.
Picks: Under 149.5 Points (-110), Valkyries Win By 1-5 (+420) & Winning at the End of Every Quarter: Any Other Result (-126)
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.