There is an exciting slate of WNBA games on Friday night. Three matchups highlight some of the most intriguing teams in the league. Let's take a look at some of those matchups for our best WNBA picks for Friday night.
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Friday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun
Golden State comes into this Friday matchup as one of the hottest teams in the WNBA. They've won six straight games, covering in five of them, and missing the cover by half a point in their lone against the spread (ATS) loss. From an ATS perspective, the Sun have been just as hot, rattling off five consecutive ATS wins to improve their season record to 12-10.
Both teams have achieved these recent hot streaks by playing strong defense. That’s par for the course for Golden State. The Valkyries have posted the second-best defensive rating in the league by rebounding well and allowing the second-lowest effective field-goal rate (eFG%).
The Sun shut down offenses like the Sky and Mystics to end June, and have carried that into July by holding the Lynx and Wings to below their season averages in points.
During this Connecticut hot streak, they've gone 3-2 to the under and held opponents to 76.2 points per game (PPG), which is 10.5 points below their season average.
The Valkyries have been an under machine as of late, too, going 5-1 to the under in their recent stretch. Given that the pace of this game is likely to be slower with both teams in the bottom half of the league, these trends should continue.
You have two teams playing some of the most competitive ball right now. Both are getting it done on the defensive end, and both are plenty comfortable playing at a slower pace. Don't be scared off by the low total set; this game is a good under play.
Pick: Under 154.5 Points (-115)
Dallas Wings at Toronto Tempo
These two teams met last week in Toronto, with the Wings coming out on top 89-76. This followed a fairly common recent trend of losses. They've gone only 2-7 straight up (SU) and boast one of the worst defenses in the league. But after giving up 94.5 PPG and going 8-2 to the over in June, the Tempo has seen its games go under the total in three straight.
Dallas will look to reverse that trend, but their performance in the previous game suggests the books may still be setting this total too high. Last Sunday, the total was 185.5; the teams combined for only 165 points, going well under the total. They've only adjusted the number by another five points to 180.5.
The game last week saw Dallas shoot around their season average while taking nearly their season average for field-goal attempts, three-point attempts and free-throw attempts. Perhaps they push the pace a bit more in this matchup, but it's likely you'll see a similar outing.
Toronto played around its season averages, too, except it struggled to get to the free-throw line. This isn't too uncommon against a Dallas team with one of the lowest free-throw/field-goal attempt rates in the league.
All the numbers point to this rematch still being set too high on the total. Toronto is priced like the team that allowed 94.5 PPG in June, but they've been much better defensively over the last few games. Even if this game sees an uptick in pace, shooting or fouls, there is still plenty of wiggle room for this one to go under, and that's where I'm leaning.
Pick: Under 180.5 Points (-112)
