There are only two WNBA games tonight, as the Dream battle the Wings and the Valkyries meet the Mercury. Below, I explain why I expect a solid game from Jessica Shepard, though I expect Angel Reese to struggle in the same game. Then, I discuss why Veronica Burton is being seriously undervalued tonight. Here are the best WNBA player props for Wednesday, July 29th.
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jessica Shepard Over 12.5 Rebounds (+102)
July has been an incredible month for Jessica Shepard. She has recorded at least 10 rebounds in seven of her eight games, grabbing at least 14 boards in five of those contests. She's now averaging 12 rebounds per game this season, which is even more than the Dream's Angel Reese.
Shepard has faced the Dream twice this season, pulling down 11 or fewer rebounds in each contest. While those performances are unlikely to instill a lot of confidence in Shepard heading into tonight's matchup, it's important to note that both of those games were played in May. Since May, Shepard has 10 games with at least 13 rebounds.
The one thing working against Shepard in this game is that the Dream are allowing the fewest rebounds per game in the WNBA. While this is a bit worrying, the price accounts for how good Atlanta has been at preventing opponent rebounds.
Angel Reese Under 15.5 Points (-115)
Like Jessica Shepard, Angel Reese entered the All-Star break playing great basketball. She recorded a double-double in five of her last six games, scoring at least 17 in four of those contests. However, I worry for her in this matchup.
First, Reese is averaging 15.4 points per game, so this line is asking her to surpass her season average to hit the over. While 0.6 points is hardly something to be concerned about, there's the fact that she has scored just 27 points against the Wings in two games this season.
Reese’s best performance came when she scored 15 points on May 22nd, but she also went 7-of-11 from the field in that contest. She's just a 42.5% shooter from the floor this season, so I don't see her replicating that type of shooting display.
Then there is the fact that the Wings are tied for the fifth-best defense in the league this season. With two top-five defenses squaring off, this should be a low-scoring game. That's bad news for Reese, who is the third-leading scorer on her team.
Veronica Burton Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+154)
Veronica Burton is averaging just 1.3 made three-pointers per game, but she has made two in back-to-back contests. Additionally, she's made at least one in six of her last eight games, so Burton enters this matchup with a pretty solid floor.
While Burton is averaging just 3.6 three-point attempts per game and has attempted three or fewer shots from beyond the arc in 10 of her last 11 contests, she's attempted 12 three-pointers against the Mercury in just two games this season. In her last meeting with Phoenix, she attempted seven threes.
Finally, the Mercury are allowing 9.8 made three-pointers per game, the most in the league. Teams are shooting 37% against them, which is the second-best rate in the WNBA, so Burton won't need to attempt a lot of shots from deep to hit the over. Considering she's shot at least 40% in back-to-back games, I can't believe how favorable the price for this over is.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.