It's a big day for women's college basketball with a number of conference tournament finals taking place. We'll have to wait before we see UConn win the Big East, but by the end of the day, we'll see champions in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC crowned, along with several smaller conferences.
With so many great games to choose from, I'm just going to start from the top and go with No. 1 UConn vs. Creighton to kick things off.
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Sunday’s Best Women’s College Basketball Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Big East Semifinal: Creighton vs. No. 1 Connecticut
It feels borderline unfair just about every time Connecticut takes the court against someone because they are so much better than everyone else. That is certainly the case here, vs. Creighton. UConn scores 88.4 points per game (No. 2 in the country); Creighton 68.1 (No. 140). The Huskies hold teams to 50.3 points per game (No. 1), the Bluejays-67.7 (273rd). The difference is just as stark in practically every statistical category.
UConn crushed Creighton in the regular season, 95-54.
The Huskies seemed to take their foot off the gas a bit towards the end of the regular season, but after they stomped Georgetown 88-39 in the semifinal round, it looks like the killer instinct is back.
Pick: UConn -36.5 (-114)
Big 12 Final: No. 15 West Virginia vs. No. 10 TCU
It is hard to beat a team three times in a single season. TCU has already taken down West Virginia twice, 51-50 on January 14 on the road and 59-50 on February 14 at home. Had one or two plays gone a different way, the outcome of the first game could have certainly been different. However, I think I have to lean towards taking the Horned Frogs to sweep the Mountaineers this season.
From a statistical perspective, these are two comparable teams with similar numbers in several important categories. TCU has a slight edge in several, but not so much that WVU will struggle to compete with them. However, there is one trend that is very relevant to this game that I can't ignore: TCU is undefeated in neutral-site games while West Virginia is 0-4.
Pick: TCU Moneyline (-114)
Big South Final: Radford vs. High Point
I know what you're thinking: why cover a small conference title game like this one? Easy, because one of these guys will make the Tournament field. But which one? These two teams met twice in the regular season with very different results.
High Point destroyed Radford in the early-season matchup, 78-40. They led 29-18 at the half, but blew up in the third quarter, 36-10, to take a massive lead en route to a 38-point win. The Panthers made four shots from three-point range in that quarter, but the Highlanders only made four.
However, in the second game, it was all Radford. The Highlanders got out to a 42-21 lead at the half. High Point won the second half, 36-30, but couldn't close the gap (final score-72-57, Radford). What was the big difference? In the first game, the Panthers won the three-point battle, nine (of 25) to two of 24). Then, in the second, Radford went 10-of-19 and High Point 6-of-25.
With two very different outcomes in the regular season, it is hard to trust either to win/cover in this game. You just don't know who will be hot or cold. However, what we do know is that the final score in either game was relatively low. Both have capable offenses, but are good on the defensive end. Defense will win the day in this game and keep the score low.
Pick: Under 127.5 Total Points (-114)
