Wong Teasers: A Proven Strategy for NFL Bettors (2022)

The new NFL season is right around the corner, and for many bettors, this is their favorite time of year. As the popularity of sports betting continues to grow and new states pass legislation every year, the NFL is still king. One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers.

Check out more advice Wong Teasers NFL Betting Strategy & Advice >>

Building an NFL Teaser

Traditionally, a teaser is a multi-leg wager of two or more spreads or totals in which you buy points on each leg at a fixed number. For example, if you like the Bills at -1 against the spread and the Falcons at +4.5, you could parlay them for a nice payout of around +264. Parlays can be risky, though, so you decide to go a safer route. Teasing these lines gives you the Bills at +5 and Falcons at +10.5, with a payout of around -120 for a standard six-point teaser.

You just took two spreads you like and made them even more appealing by giving yourself a cushion on the number. Unfortunately, the books know what they're doing, and often you're still going to be on the losing end when betting teasers. Unless, of course, you implement a strategy that can find the positive expected value. Lucky for you, that strategy has already been developed.

In his 2001 book, Sharp Sports Betting, Stanford Wong laid out the ground rules for positive expected value teasers, now referred to as Wong teasers.

The new NFL season is right around the corner, and for many bettors, this is their favorite time of year. As the popularity of sports betting continues to grow and new states pass legislation every year, the NFL is still king. One popular way bettors try to find value on NFL lines is by playing teasers.

Check out more advice Wong Teasers NFL Betting Strategy & Advice >>

Building an NFL Teaser

Traditionally, a teaser is a multi-leg wager of two or more spreads or totals in which you buy points on each leg at a fixed number. For example, if you like the Bills at -1 against the spread and the Falcons at +4.5, you could parlay them for a nice payout of around +264. Parlays can be risky, though, so you decide to go a safer route. Teasing these lines gives you the Bills at +5 and Falcons at +10.5, with a payout of around -120 for a standard six-point teaser.

You just took two spreads you like and made them even more appealing by giving yourself a cushion on the number. Unfortunately, the books know what they're doing, and often you're still going to be on the losing end when betting teasers. Unless, of course, you implement a strategy that can find the positive expected value. Lucky for you, that strategy has already been developed.

In his 2001 book, Sharp Sports Betting, Stanford Wong laid out the ground rules for positive expected value teasers, now referred to as Wong teasers.

Never Tease Through Zero

Around 0.77% of regular-season NFL games have ended in a tie in the last 10 regular seasons. Effectively, this means that by teasing through zero, like our example with the Bills above, you are paying the book for six points even though you are only getting five points of value. 

Tease Through Key Numbers

Pick spreads between -8.5 and -7.5 or +1.5 and +2.5 to tease through 3 and 7. Why? Because these are the two most common final point differentials in the NFL, landing at 14.1% and 8.8%, respectively, over the past 10 regular seasons. Additionally, 6 has become a key number in recent years, with missed extra points being more common, hitting third most often at 6.5%. Teasing through 3 and 7 inherently incorporates 6. It is also important to note that teasing totals have little value. The data shows potential outcomes are more evenly distributed and don't have drastic key numbers like NFL spreads.

These Rules Show Positive Expected Value

When following these rules, individual legs have covered the six-point teased spread around 75.4% over the last 10 years compared to the 50% of a traditional spread, according to Stathead's NFL database. Teased spread lines outside the Wong ranges have hit at about a 69.2% clip in that same time frame. The table below compares the expected value of betting two-leg teasers using Wong's rules versus not.

Sportsbooks Have Responded

These strategies work when building an NFL teaser. They have been so profitable for bettors that books have started to catch up by trying to avoid offering spreads at the Wong teaser sweet spots. Instead, they've begun setting lines just outside to decrease teaser value. Additionally, some books consider a wager a push or even a loss if one leg pushes, so teasing +1 to +7 or -9 to -3 loses value if you aren't teasing through the key numbers Wong highlighted. To combat the profitability for bettors, books continue to add juice to teasers and offer two team teasers at -120 now, where they previously offered them at -110 or better. 

Fear not, as there are still opportunities to create Wong teasers weekly. Even with fewer options than before, you can typically find a few lines at the key numbers. Shop around at different books to see what lines they are offering. Also, see how different books offer teasers. Some may still price a two-team, six-point teaser at -110 or better. Remember, even at -120, you are still expected to profit in the long run.

NFL betting is a sharp game, and everyone is trying to find an edge. It can be challenging to find value in plays every week, but if you follow the Wong Teaser rules, you can give yourself a leg up and add value to your Sunday betting slip.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategies - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.