I swept all five PrizePicks player props in Week 3. It won’t always go that well. Yet, entering the week after an outstanding showing is always preferable. Instead of merely attempting to stay hot this week, I’ve added another pick to the mix, bringing the total to six upcoming player prop bets.
Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Best XFL Week 4 PrizePicks Bets
Here are Saturday’s best XFL Week 4 PrizePicks plays.
Ben DiNucci OVER 225.5 Passing Yards
Ben DiNucci is leading the XFL’s most pass-happy offense. The Sea Dragons have attempted 122 passes versus just 63 rushes. As a result, DiNucci leads the XFL in passing yards by a wide margin. He’s passed for 843 yards, 123 clear of the second-highest total.
DiNucci has spun it for 283, 183 and 377 passing yards in three games this year. The lousy outlier showing came on a short week. Seattle closed Week 1 on Sunday night and had to turn around and play on Thursday night in Week 2. So, he deserves a partial pass for the underwhelming showing.
DiNucci should stay hot in an unimposing matchup this week. San Antonio allowed 190 passing yards on just 26 attempts (7.3 yards per pass attempt) to A.J. McCarron in Week 1, held Orlando’s pathetic passing attack in check and got torched by the Roughnecks for 281 passing yards on 36 attempts last week. DiNucci would need just 32 pass attempts at his season average of 7.1 yards per attempt to eclipse his prop. He’s hit that mark in two of three games. Finally, the Brahmas coughed up 7.6 yards per pass attempt in their only two matchups against competent offenses. So, DiNucci’s over for 225.5 passing yards is inviting.
A.J. McCarron OVER 200.5 Passing Yards
McCarron has cleared 200.5 passing yards only one time this year. Thankfully, he did so when passing for 262 yards last week. The veteran signal-caller’s dropbacks and pass attempts have climbed every week. He attempted 26, 37 and 42 passes in successive weeks.
The Battlehawks have a pass-heavy offense. They’ve attempted 104 passes and only 58 rushes. Their approach should prove fruitful this week against the Renegades. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Renegades have the best run defense and second-worst pass coverage grade. As a result, McCarron should continue rolling after last week’s effort and surpass 200.5 passing yards in Week 4.
Brett Hundley UNDER 200.5 Passing Yards
Brett Hundley played most of the quarterback snaps in windy, rainy weather in Week 2 before handling all of the snaps in Week 3. The former Packer rewarded the Vipers with a dynamic performance last week, showing value with his legs and passing for 224 yards.
However, he completed only 46.4% of his passes in Week 3. Hundley also had only 99 passing yards on 18 attempts in Week 2 against this week’s opponents, albeit in nightmare weather conditions. Nevertheless, DC’s run-first tendencies can make it tricky for Hundley to attempt enough passes to eclipse 200.5 passing yards if the Defenders continue their excellence on the ground.
Finally, the Vipers parted with their offensive coordinator on Friday.
Confirmed. Per league and team sources: Duane Taylor has been relieved of his duties as Vegas Vipers offensive coordinator and is no longer with the organization. Taylor's dismissal was a football operations decision. No word yet on who the Vipers OC will be in Week 4.
- Mike Mitchell (@ByMikeMitchell) March 10, 2023
A late-week dismissal of the offensive coordinator could result in a disjointed offense this weekend. Thus, under 200.5 passing yards for Hundley is the side to take.
Jah-Maine Martin UNDER 27.5 Rushing Yards
The Guardians are one of two winless teams in the XFL. And, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, they’re the biggest underdogs this week as a 9.0-point underdog. The game script is likely to be bad for Orlando’s running game in a matchup against an opponent who thrashed them in Week 1.
Houston beat the Guardians 33-12 in the opener, and Orlando scored only six points after scoring a debatable touchdown on the opening drive. The scoring play could have been ruled an interception. Martin rushed for 41 yards on only nine attempts in that matchup.
Yet, his workload might be smaller if the Guardians find themselves in a hole earlier in the rematch. Further, Kelvin Taylor has been Orlando’s more efficient running back. According to PFF, Taylor played 25 snaps and had seven rushes last week versus 24 and seven for Martin. Martin also had two fumbles, which could grow the gap if he’s in the doghouse. Nevertheless, there’s not much to like about Martin’s trajectory and performance. So, gamblers should bet on Martin having fewer than 27.5 rushing yards.
Jontre Kirklin OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards
Jontre Kirklin is one of the stars of the XFL. He’s tied for fourth in targets (21), tied for sixth in receptions (13) and fourth in receiving yards (199). Additionally, Kirklin blends a nifty target volume with vertical usage. According to PFF, Kirklin’s 14.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is the second-deepest mark among players targeted at least eight times.
Kirklin burned the Guardians for 66 yards in the opener and hasn’t slowed down. He had 56 and 77 receiving yards in the subsequent two games. Fortunately, the Roughnecks are unlikely to take their foot off the accelerator, even if they smash the Guardians again. Houston has attempted the second-most passes in the league (107) and hasn’t been shy about slinging it with a lead. Kirklin is Houston’s most consistent pass-catcher, making his over for 55.5 receiving yards an appealing pick.
Hakeem Butler OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards
Hakeem Butler has towered over and toyed with defenses in the XFL. He’s tied for fourth in targets (21), tied for third in receptions (16) and third in receiving yards (201). The Battlehawks have wisely deployed Butler as a jumbo slot. Butler has aligned in the slot for 76 of 89 passing snaps.
Butler’s been used at every level of the field, too. According to PFF, he has 11 receptions on 11 targets from zero to nine yards, four on six from 10 to 19 yards, and one on four 20-plus yards downfield. Butler’s production is ascending, too. After securing three receptions on three targets for 32 yards in Week 1, he’s surged to four receptions for 61 yards on seven targets and nine for 105 on 11 in consecutive games.
Butler’s been in lockstep with McCarron, and the correlation between McCarron’s passing yards prop and this one is ideal for betting them together.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
