I’m on a heater, folks. After going five for five on my XFL PrizePicks player prop bets in Week 3, I suggested winners for five of six picks in Week 4. There are only three games on this weekend’s slate after the Sea Dragons defeated the Roughnecks in Seattle on Thursday night. So instead of forcing picks for the sake of making them, the following plays are trimmed to four. They’re all from the same probable slobber knocker in the North Division and correlate with each other.
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Best XFL Week 5 PrizePicks Bets
Here are Saturday’s best XFL Week 5 PrizePicks plays.
I’m on a heater, folks. After going five for five on my XFL PrizePicks player prop bets in Week 3, I suggested winners for five of six picks in Week 4. There are only three games on this weekend’s slate after the Sea Dragons defeated the Roughnecks in Seattle on Thursday night. So instead of forcing picks for the sake of making them, the following plays are trimmed to four. They’re all from the same probable slobber knocker in the North Division and correlate with each other.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Best XFL Week 5 PrizePicks Bets
Here are Saturday’s best XFL Week 5 PrizePicks plays.
A.J. McCarron OVER 210.5 Passing Yards
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), A.J. McCarron was their highest-graded passer entering Week 5, had the second-most big-time throws (seven), and was third in passing yards (854). He opened the year with only 186 passing yards in the opener before passing for 192 in a quick turnaround on Thursday night in Week 2. The XFL didn’t have preseason contests so coupled with the short week and road contest in Week 2, his lackluster yardage totals were understandable through two games. McCarron has since lit up the air for 262 and 214 passing yards, with the former showing against this week’s opponent in Washington.
He’ll get the Defenders in a dome in St. Louis this week and the lack of weather concerns is a plus for McCarron’s outlook. Furthermore, the matchup is outstanding. DC entered this week, allowing the most passing yards (986) in the XFL, sporting a 113-yard gap between the second-highest mark. St. Louis also hasn’t left any doubt about how they intend to attack defenses. They’re a pass-first club, attempting 131 passes and just 86 rushes. Thus, I love McCarron’s chances to eclipse 210.5 passing yards for the third consecutive week.
Hakeem Butler OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
Hakeem Butler should thrive if McCarron carves up DC’s porous pass defense. The big-bodied slot wideout entered this week fourth in the XFL in receiving yards (253). Butler also hasn’t lived on volatile big plays. Instead, he was tied for fifth in targets (27) and fourth in receptions (21) through four weeks.
In addition, Butler’s been targeted at all levels of the field. According to PFF, he has one target behind the line of scrimmage, 14 zero to nine yards, six 10 to 19 yards, and six 20-plus yards downfield. He’s bested 50.5 receiving yards in every contest except for the opener, posting 64, 105, and 52 yards in Week 2 through Week 4. Butler’s season-high 105 receiving yards were against the overmatched Defenders. So, I don’t see any reason to believe the Defenders will keep him under 50.5 receiving yards this week.
Darrius Shepherd OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards
Darrius Shepherd was an afterthought through two games before stepping up when Marcell Ateman was injured. Shepherd had seven and nine yards in the first two games of the year. He’s since tallied 51 (against DC) and 91 receiving yards in consecutive games. Per PFF, Shepherd is tied with Butler for the second-most routes (61) on the BattleHawks since Week 3, one behind Austin Proehl.
However, Butler and Shepherd have bogarted targets, tallying 17 and 15, followed by Proehl’s nine, Steven Mitchell’s seven, and Brian Hill’s six. Shepherd’s 15 targets in the previous two weeks are good for a stellar 21.7% target share.
Shepherd has made hay in the short-to-intermediate area of the field. In the last two games, his average depth of target (aDOT) was 6.9 yards downfield. The high-percentage targets have allowed him to corral 13 of 15 targets. Butler and Shepherd both got home against DC in the prior meeting in Week 3, and they should give their division rivals fits again this week. So, Shepherd’s over for 40.5 receiving yards is an exciting selection. In fact, I prefer Shepherd’s over slightly to Butler’s over if you’re using only one of their overs in a PrizePicks entry.
Abram Smith OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards
While the BattleHawks are a pass-first team, the Defenders are at the polar opposite end of the spectrum. Even though the Roughnecks and Sea Dragons already played this week, DC has 47 more rush attempts than the second-highest total (106 in a two-way tie between Houston and Seattle). Further, the Defenders have attempted only 90 passes.
Their mobile quarterbacks have had a hand in the high rushing volume. However, they’ve also leaned heavily on their backfield tandem of Abram Smith and Ryquell Armstead. Through Week 4, Smith (60 rushes) and Armstead (37) were first and fifth in rush attempts in the XFL.
Sadly, Armstead hasn’t practiced this week through Thursday because of a calf injury. Even if Friday’s practice report reveals he returned to the gridiron, the calf injury could limit him this weekend. Yet, it’s more likely he will miss this week’s contest entirely, ceding more of the pie for Smith to gobble up.
The former Baylor Bear had only 28 rushing yards in Week 1 before rattling off 70, 50, and 58 in the three subsequent contests. He handled a season-high 22 rushes last week after setting a previous high of 15 in Week 3.
Yes, Smith’s 50 rushing yards in the first game against the BattleHawks would leave him short of this week’s total of 55.5 rushing yards. Still, Armstead toted the rock 11 times for 54 yards in that contest. Smith would only need to soak up a few more carries in the rematch to beat his total if he matches his modest 3.3 yards per carry in Week 3. Smith would need 16 rush attempts at his season average of 3.5 yards per carry to eclipse 55.5 rushing yards, and Armstead’s injury should pave the way for a hefty workload if DC leads or keeps it close. DraftKings Sportsbook has the line at DC -2.0 points, which would be perfect for all of the suggested picks, allowing St. Louis to stick to their pass-happy tendency and DC to churn out yards in their ground-and-pound approach. So, Smith going over 55.5 rushing yards rounds out this week’s PrizePicks player prop picks and correlates with the other selections.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
