Being white-hot is fun. The XFL PizePicks player prop train hasn’t slowed since sweeping all five selections in Week 3. That was followed up by five correct selections out of six and three out of four in two subsequent weeks. So let’s keep rolling this week.
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Best XFL Week 6 PrizePicks Bets
Here are Saturday’s best XFL Week 6 PrizePicks plays.
Ben DiNucci OVER 245.5 Passing Yards
Ben DiNucci chucked three picks in last week’s victory against the then-unbeaten Roughnecks. Still, he’s been the XFL’s most productive quarterback. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), DiNucci is first in passing yards (1,316) and big-time throws (11). He’s averaged 263.2 passing yards per game, had a median outcome of 264 passing yards, and eclipsed 245.5 passing yards in three of five games. Moreover, he had his lowest passing output (183 yards) on a short week in Week 2.
Meanwhile, Orlando’s been flamed for the third-most passing yards (1,132) this season, allowing an average of 226.4 passing yards per game. Brandon Silvers carved them up for 272 passing yards in the season opener and 239 in the rematch. However, Cole McDonald added 14 passing yards, and Jontre Kirklin completed a 49-yard pass in the second meeting. Jack Coan (165 passing yards) and Kyle Sloter (124) fell short of DiNucci’s prop this week, but the Brahmas and Renegades have been inept offensively this year. And last week, Luis Perez shredded Orlando for 269 passing yards. So, DiNucci has an excellent chance to pass for more than 245.5 yards while guiding the XFL’s most pass-happy team.
Jahcour Pearson OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards
Jahcour Pearson had more than 75.5 receiving yards in all five games this week. Full stop. Seattle’s shifty slot wideout leads the XFL in targets (46), receptions (36), and receiving yards (430). Pearson has feasted at a high-percentage 6.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
The matchup is good, too. Deontay Burnett (90 receiving yards in Week 1), Travell Harris (83 yards in Week 4), and Jeff Badet (80 receiving yards in Week 5) all went over Pearson’s prop of 75.5 receiving yards this season. The news improves when digging into the usage of the wideouts who torched the Guardians. Per PFF, Pearson has played all his passing snaps (209) in the slot. Interestingly, Harris (121 of 123 passing snaps) and Badet (155 of 166 passing snaps) have also primarily played in the slot. Thus, the stars align for another monstrous showing for Pearson. PrizePicks users should use DiNucci’s and Pearson’s correlated overs together.
Darius Bradwell UNDER 45.5 Rushing Yards
Since the club ruled out Morgan Ellison, Darius Bradwell will lead Seattle’s backfield.
.@XFLSeaDragons and @XFLGuardians injury report.#XFL#XFL2023 pic.twitter.com/nRv6tezJSD
- The Markcast® (@the_markcast) March 23, 2023
Bradwell should lead the team in rushes since T.J. Hammonds is a running back and wide receiver hybrid. Nevertheless, Bradwell’s outlook isn’t encouraging. First, Seattle has attempted 195 passes and rushed only 106 times. Second, the Guardians have allowed the third-fewest yards per carry (3.51) to non-quarterbacks this season.
In addition, no running backs have had more than 45.5 rushing yards in a game against the Guardians this year. The Guardians have been blown out in most contests this year. Yet, the positive game scripts haven’t been enough to allow a running back to exceed 45.5 rushing yards against Orlando this year. Bradwell’s rushed for only 17 yards on 10 attempts this season, and he had only 12 rushing yards on a team-high nine rushes last week. Thus, Bradwell is unlikely to break through and be the first running back to steamroll the hapless Guardians for more than 45.5 rushing yards, despite the Sea Guardians serving as 9.5-point favorites, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Hakeem Butler OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards
Hakeem Butler has been a problem for opposing defenses. The big-bodied slot wideout is second in the XFL in targets (38), second in receptions (30), and third in receiving yards (339). Butler had a season-low 32 receiving yards in Week 1 but has posted 64, 105, 52, and 86 receiving yards since the season opener. Further, the former fourth-round pick in the NFL Draft has been used at all depths of the field. Per PFF, Butler has two targets behind the line of scrimmage, 22 from zero to nine yards, seven from 10 to 19 yards, and seven from 20-plus yards downfield.
The matchup is mouthwatering for Butler this week against the Vipers. Vegas has allowed an eye-popping eight wideouts or tight ends to best 60.5 receiving yards. The only week they held all wideouts and tight ends under 60.5 receiving yards was in a windy and rainy affair against the run-first Defenders in Week 2. Encouragingly, similar archetype players, such as Sal Cannella (70 receiving yards) and Cody Latimer (124), another dominant slot, Pearson (99), and fellow tall wideouts Josh Gordon (118), Jordan Veasy (63), Chris Blair (84) and Charleston Rambo (69), had more than 60.5 receiving yards against the Vipers this season. So, this is another smash spot for Butler, and his over for 60.5 receiving yards is my favorite PrizePicks player prop this week.
Justin Smith OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards
Justin Smith has been an afterthought as a depth option in Houston’s pass-happy offense this year. Sadly, one of the league’s breakout stars, Jontre Kirklin, was injured against the Sea Dragons last week and will miss the rest of the year. As a result, the Roughnecks need a wideout to step up, and Smith is the apparent option, at least for this week.
Smith was second on the team in routes (46) last week and led the club in receiving yards (63). Deontay Burnett led the team in routes (50) and is a perimeter wideout. Smith is the other wideout on the team who fits the profile of an outside wide receiver, playing all 52 of his passing snaps wide last week. Travell Harris, Cedric Byrd, Ben Putnam, and Nick Holley are slot-only wideouts.
Thankfully, Smith has a nice runway for production against DC’s defense this week. They’ve allowed 10 wide receivers and one tight end to surpass 40.5 receiving yards this year. Week 2 was the only game when they held all wideouts under 40.5 receiving yards. Yet, as I noted above, that game was a rainy and windy contest in Vegas. So, take that contest’s performance with a grain of salt. The Roughnecks won’t change their stripes this week without Kirklin. They’re a pass-happy team, ranking second in pass attempts (187) and tied for last in rush attempts (106). Thus, the volume should be there for Smith to exceed 40.5 receiving yards.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
