Tires on a stock car can only keep going ’round as long as there’s money backing it. Motorsports is volatile, especially at the top level.
The NASCAR Cup Series saw some major shakeups over the past few weeks.
It began with arguably the series’ smallest team, Live Fast Motorsports, announcing the sale of their charter to Spire Motorsports on Sept. 16. This gives Spire their third charter, while Live Fast moves to a part-time schedule for 2024 in an open car.
Really, it’s a savvy move by team owners BJ McLeod, Matt Tifft and Joe Falk. They cashed in $40 million for their charter - $16.5 million more than the last charter sold in 2021 - one that has serious questions surrounding it when the Cup Series’ TV rights contract expires at the end of next season. Still, it means we won’t get to see the likes of McLeod and Tifft every race weekend. While they weren’t always the most competitive team, they were maybe the most down-to-earth one in the garage, at least from the perspective of a young media member like myself.
Meanwhile, Spire wasn’t done. Kyle Busch announced on Sept. 27 that he was selling Kyle Busch Motorsports (KBM) and Rowdy Manufacturing, including their 77,000-square-foot facility in Mooresville, N.C. A new Cup Series charter and now the most-winning Truck Series team of all time; Spire is going for it.
Only times will tell how these moves affect the sport and, ultimately, its bettors. In the meantime, we’re heading back south as NASCAR returns to Talladega. These are the data sets leading the way:
- 2023 Talladega (Finishes, green flag speed,* total speed rankings,* late-run speed* & loop data*)
- Superspeedway comp tracks (finishes & total speed rankings*):
- 2023 Daytona 500
- 2023 Atlanta I
- 2023 Atlanta II
- 2023 Daytona II
- Driver history
- Track & playoff trends
- Recent performance & current standings
*via ifantasyrace.com
We’re also onto the fifth race for the Cup Series Playoffs and the second race for the Round of 12. Make sure you familiarize yourself with the standings and consider how that might factor into results.
With that in mind, let’s get to our best bets for the YellaWood 500:
2023 Yellawood 500: NASCAR at Talladega Odds, Picks & Predictions
All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.
Top 5: Brad Keselowski (+245 via BetRivers Sportsbook)
There’s been no one better than Brad Keselowski at superspeedways this season. Here’s a snapshot of his track record:
- Daytona 500: P22 - 42 laps led
- Atlanta I: P2 - 47 laps led
- Talladega: P5 - 2 laps led
- Atlanta II: P6 - 19 laps led
- Daytona II: P2 - 6 laps led
Keselowski knows when to bail and fall back if it’s chaotic and when to charge to the front. Finishing with a T10 in five straight races, I’m backing the driver with the most wins here among actives (six).
Top 10: Ross Chastain (+150 via BetMGM)
It seems as if Ross Chastain is finally regaining his early-season speed. He’s finished two of the last four races with a T5, including an impressive P2 run at Texas last week.
Chastain has found success here at Talladega, finishing with a T10 in two of his three races with Trackhouse Racing. He won in the spring of 2022 and had a top-five total speed ranking this spring. Despite the 23rd finish that day, the No. 1 car ran 70.9% of its laps in the top 15 (fifth-most).
Let’s lock in Chastain to make melonade in a race where they’ll be coming at him left and right.
Matchup: Daniel Suarez (-115) vs. Austin Dillon (-115) via Caesars Sportsbook
This bet is more of a fade of Austin Dillon than anything. The driver of the No. 3 car has finished outside the top 30 in 50% of his last eight races. The last T10 for this Richard Childress Racing (RCR) team came in Richmond on July 30. It wasn’t great at Talladega either. Dillon finished 33rd and had the 28th-best total speed ranking.
Daniel Suarez, on the other hand, has three T10s in that span, including a P8 last week at Texas. Considering he also finished P9 in the spring and was sixth in the total speed rankings, the No. 99 is the clear choice to back
Other Bets on My Card:
- Brad Keselowski Outright (+1200 via Caesars Sportsbook) .75u
- Ross Chastain Outright (+2500 via BetMGM) .5u
- Chris Buescher Outright (+1600 via BetMGM) .25u
- Chase Briscoe T10 (+185 via BetRivers) .5u
- BJ Mcleod T10 (+1400 via DraftKings) .05u
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.