The BMW Championship has shown its teeth a bit with the altitude and elevation presenting a unique challenge for the 50 golfers who qualified for this second FedExCup playoff event. Located south of Denver at Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock, Colorado, we watched World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler struggle to adapt his game to the altitude in Round 1 and Round 2. He currently sits at -1-under-par at T29 on the leaderboard.
Other golfers have fared much better, especially in Round 2. Adam Scott scorched the course with nine birdies on Friday to grab a three-stroke lead over the field at 13-under-par, while Ludvig Åberg also went 9-under-par after finishing even par in Round 1. Taylor Pendrith also bounced back from even par to 7-under-par in Round 2, adapting his game to fit the style of play needed to contend at Castle Pines.
Let’s build off of last week’s momentum with Hideki Matsuyama winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship cashing our outright wagers at +280 odds. Matsuyama withdrew from this event after Round 1, otherwise, he’d likely be a recommended prospect. I’ve found five golfers worth betting on in the outright winner market ahead of Saturday’s third round from Castle Pines Golf Club. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Weekend Picks
These plays are 1 unit, 0.50 unit, and 0.25 unit plays. Or one percent, half a percent, and a quarter percent of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Ludvig Åberg (+360)
What started as an ugly outing for Åberg in Round 1 quickly morphed into a spectacular showing in Round 2. The Swede ranks fourth SG: approach and third total strokes gained in this field of 50. Åberg recorded eight birdies and an eagle in Round 2, with one bogey, compared to seven birdies, three bogeys, and two double bogeys in Round 1. His form off-the-tee is excellent, so expect the rising star to continue finding greens in regulation and sinking putts to remain in contention for his first win on the PGA Tour in 2024. Let’s stake a full unit on Åberg, who leads the field in total birdies (15) and is overdue for a win.
Keegan Bradley (+550)
Keegan Bradley had a forgettable year during the regular PGA Tour season but he’s looked sharp at Castle Pines this week. Bradley is currently solo second at 10-under-par, three off the lead from Scott, ranking first in total bogeys, with only one blemish on his scorecard. Bradley is second SG: approach and ninth SG: around the green. He’s also hit 31 out of 36 greens in regulation, good enough for first in the field this week. +550 is good enough value to warrant a full unit stake.
Taylor Pendrith (+2200)
Taylor Pendrith finally broke through with his first win on the PGA Tour at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson back in May. He’s been in good form all season, and in Round 2, he wound up going 7-under-par, converting eight birdies to only one bogey. He’s a great putter and ranks seventh SG: approach, which is a quality one-two combo to hold at a course like Castle Pines. Let’s stake half a unit on Pendrith to grab 11 units of profit if he runs the table with an outright win.
Sungjae Im (+2800)
Sungjae Im could easily be sitting in the top-three or top-five of this leaderboard, however, the South Korean golfer has been prone to bogeys thus far, recording six of them through two rounds. Despite these issues, Im ranks ninth SG: putting, seventh SG: around the green, and has recorded 12 birdies. If he cleans up his mistakes and goes 5-under-par or lower in Round 3, he’ll be right back in contention. Let’s stake a quarter unit on Im at 28-1.
Wyndham Clark (+4500)
Denver native Wyndham Clark had a much stronger showing in Round 2 after a chaotic back-nine on Thursday. Clark currently sits T10 on the leaderboard at 4-under-par, nine strokes off the lead, but he’s capable of going on a run. Ranked first SG: off-the-tee and third SG: putting, his approach shots need to improve for this 45-1 longshot to happen. It’s worth a 0.25 unit wager to seize over 11 units of profit if Clark winds up pulling off the upset at a course he’s very familiar playing at.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.