The NFL Draft is fun, and this year I'll finally be getting in on ALL the action with mobile sports betting legalized in my area of residence. Below is my regularly updated sheet of prop bets for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Here are my mock drafts thus far, along with my other relevant articles related to this year's Draft and other futures-related NFL content:
- Andrew Erickson's Mock Drafts (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0| 4.0 | 5.0)
- Historical NFL Draft Picks of All 32 NFL Teams (2024 Fantasy Football)
- NFL Draft Needs for Every Team Post-Free Agency (2024 Fantasy Football)
- Erickson's Top 2024 NFL Futures: Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Best Ball Strategy: How to Approach the Middle Rounds (2024 Fantasy Football)
My approach to betting on the NFL Draft is to build a portfolio of bets where I focus more on long shots the further we are out from the end of April. We are so limited with information currently that shorter bets are probably being overvalued. Focus on the long shots and build off these bets the closer we get to April 25th.
Here are a few of my favorite 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bets.
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2024 NFL Draft Prop Bet Picks
WR Adonai Mitchell Draft Position under 27.5 (+130 via BetMGM)
Date: April 22
AD Mitchell’s initial draft position opened around 16.5/17.5 where it was hammered up to the current number. The sportsbooks were led to believe that Mitchell was going to be drafted much earlier than his current number suggests. And although I agreed that the 17-draft slot was too high, I love the under at 27.5. We don’t get Buffalo’s pick at No. 28, but Mitchell fits the “X” No. 1 WR archetype. The exact WR skill set that Bills GM Brandon Beane doesn’t want. So I don’t feel bad missing out on the Bills pick.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter was asked on the Establish the Run podcast about Mitchell’s draft position, stating he would project the Texas WR to be drafted lower than the 25-32 draft range. Guys with Mitchell’s intangibles – attitude issues aside – will have some team invest highly in him. The Steelers have shown interest at 20th overall as have the Bengals, Cowboys, Packers, Jets, Colts, Buccaneers and Jaguars.
OT Patrick Paul to be a 1st round pick – (+650 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Date: April 22
In my most recent mock draft (5.0) I listed Houston OT Patrick Paul as the 32nd pick overall to the Chiefs. It’s no guarantee that the WR-needy Chiefs take Paul, but it’s worth noting that Houston tackle has taken several visits with multiple teams from picks 28-33 (49ers, Bills, Chiefs, Panthers and Ravens). And he simply just profiles as a first-round tackle prospect. Paul posted the No. 1 PFF pass-blocking grade in the nation in 2023 (91.5). He’s built like a total mammoth at 6-foot-7 and 331 pounds with arm length in the 97th percentile. He’s very experienced with 5 years under his belt. I’d bet Paul will likely be valued higher by teams that need an immediate improvement at the tackle position versus those taking a long-term approach.
Note that these odds have shortened substantially from +1500 to +1000 down to +650. It’s even shorter on FanDuel (+370). Keep an eye out for his Round 1 prop across other sportsbooks that may be asleep at the wheel.
You probably have Patrick Paul too low on your board/mock.
Not saying/just saying.
— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) April 19, 2024
MarShawn Lloyd To Be First RB Drafted (+1400 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Date: April 22
USC’s Marshawn Lloyd is also rumored to be in the conversation as the RB1 in the class, after a strong pre-draft process. Opened at +600 for the former Trojan to be the first RB drafted on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Per Sportskeeda's NFL Draft Analyst Tony Pauline - many believe that Lloyd will push Benson as the first RB off the board as a major pre-draft riser through the Senior Bowl and NFL Scouting Combine. Lloyd has also ties to current NFL coaches from his time spent at USC with both the Commanders and Chargers. Those teams have a combined 6 picks on Day 2, inside the top 80 selections.
NFL.com draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has MarShawn Lloyd listed as his No. 1 RB in his top-150 rankings. He’s been pretty good at aligning his per-draft rankings with actual RB draft capital. Lloyd is currently listed at +1000 (now up to +1400) to be the first RB selected on FanDuel with Texas RB Jonathon Brooks emerging as the overwhelming favorite days away from the draft.
@MoveTheSticks RB1 is MarShawn Lloyd
Daniel Jeremiah's top 150 has been good with projecting RBs and their draft capital.
Has just slightly overvalued them based on where they are selected…
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) April 22, 2024