The two Women’s semi-finals of the 2025 Australian Open are set, and they carry plenty of intrigue. Aryna Sabalenka is still alive in her quest to become the first three-peat champion at this Major since Martina Hingis did so from 1997-99. She faces her good friend, Paula Badosa, who is in the midst of a career revival.
In the other semi-final matchup, the only American woman to advance (Madison Keys) looks to break a 0-2 record in Australian Open semi-finals with a win over the dominant Iga Swiatek.
Read on for our 2025 Women’s Australian Open picks and predictions for the semi-finals for Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek.
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2025 Women’s Australian Open Picks: Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek
Both of Madison Keys’ other two semi-final losses at the Australian Open came against the eventual champions, Serena Williams in 2015 and Ashleigh Barty in 2022. Unfortunately for her, Iga Swiatek looks every bit the part of a player who is destined to break through to her first Australian Open final and she could win it all.
Swiatek has not dropped a set and has only lost 14 total games through five matches thus far. In her last three matches against tougher competition, including No. 8 seed Emma Navarro, she has not lost more than three games total or more than two in a set.
Since her first match, Swiatek has not had her serve broken and has only faced three break points in total. While Keys is amid a 10-match winning streak with her last two wins coming against two past runners-up in Melbourne in Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins, Swiatek will be smart enough to stay away from Keys’ powerful forehand, which produced 23 winners in her quarter-final victory.
Keys won her last match against Swiatek on hard courts in straight sets in 2022 in Cincinnati, but Swiatek looks determined to earn back the No. 1 world ranking.
Pick: Swiatek -1.5 Sets (-175)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01