2025 NCAA Tournament: Which No. 2 Seed Will Be Eliminated First?

The best part of the NCAA tournament is that anything can happen. An unknown team can get hot at the right time, get the perfect matchup, and Cinderella gets to dance.

If you're the No. 2 seed, you have a good chance to make it far into the tournament, but it isn't guaranteed. No. 15 seeds are 11-145 in the first round against two seeds, with the most recent upset in 2023. These teams may not lose in the first round, but we'll examine which could be the first to go home.

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Which No.2 Seed Will Be Eliminated First?

(All bets are one unit unless specified otherwise)

Michigan State Spartans (South)

The Spartans don't have a star-studded roster, and Jase Richardson-son of former NBA star Jason Richardson-is projected to be the only NBA prospect on the team. Richardson stepped toward the end of the season and averaged 19.5 points in the last four games. They are a solid offensive team, averaging 78.2 points per game (58th), but the inadequate three-point shooting (30.8%, 328th) does not allow them to get a triple if needed.

Their defense will push them far in this tournament. They are tough on the boards, averaging 39.8 rebounds per game (9th) and highly disciplined, only allowing 19.5 fouls per game (14th).

Alabama Crimson Tide (East)

For the Crimson Tide, it is all about the offense. For the second season in a row, they finished as the top-scoring team in the country by averaging 91.1 points per game, a whole point higher than last year. They are the quintessential up-tempo run-and-gun offense, as they finished fourth in possession per game (81.8) and fifth in field goal attempts per game (64.4).

Mark Sears has been the long-time star of their offense and leads the team with 18.7 points per game, but they have multiple scoring options. Six players average over 10 points per game, and when someone is struggling, they have someone who can pick them up.

Tennessee Volunteers (Midwest)

The Vols have had some highs and lows. At one point, this team was demolished by a 30-point loss to Florida but beat them later by 20. Unfortunately, they could not make lightning strike twice as they lost to them in the SEC Final.

What will make them a tough out is how good this defense is. They finished the season third in adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, according to KenPom. To illustrate how good they are, they held Alabama to 76 points, their second-lowest total in an SEC matchup.

Even with how well they defend, they also have some offensive options. Zakai Zeigler had a fantastic year with a personal-best 13.8 points per season and a team-leading 7.3 assists. The transfer portal paid off for the Vols as Chaz Lainer led the team with 17.7 points per game, and Igor Milicic Jr. led with 6.9 rebounds.

St. John's Red Storm (West)

It was an amazing season for the Red Storm, who captured their first Big East title in 32 years. This is your typical Rick Pitino-led team, with the defense being an emphasis. They finished 26th in points allowed per game (65.9) and first in adjusted defensive efficiency rankings according to KenPom (87.5). It was a down year in the Big East, but having two defining wins against two-time defending national champion UConn is something to note going into this tournament.

The defense will be the staple, but offensively, they'll look at RJ Luis Jr. to lead this team. Luis finished fourth in the conference with 18.4 points per game, and he will control the ball a lot.

Who Will Be Eliminated First?

Most of these have a common denominator: a top-rated defense. The two seeds feature a group of some of the top defenses in the country, except one.

Alabama comes in 31st first in adjusted defensive efficiency rankings according to KenPom and 350th in points allowed per game (81.4). The Tide cannot afford a bad shooting night because they cannot make stops. That factor could make them vulnerable, especially against a good defense.

Prediction: Alabama