The fourth and final major of the PGA Tour season is set to tee off from Royal Birkdale in Southport, England, during the 154th Open Championship. It’s another test at links golf for this field of 156 golfers, following Tom Kim’s longshot win at the Genesis Scottish Open on Sunday.
Royal Birkdale is a par 70 that runs 7,223 yards in length. Its characteristic markers include high dunes, while coastal winds along England’s northwest Merseyside coastline will be a big challenge at times. Right now, Royal Birkdale is dry, meaning it’s going to run fast, featuring plenty of tricky undulations on tight fairways and raised, small greens that are guarded by side and back bunkers.
Scottie Scheffler returns as the defending champion at this major. Granted, last year’s win at Royal Portrush was a different test than Royal Birkdale. The World No. 1 just missed his first cut since 2022 at The Renaissance Club last week, and as a result, his odds are long as a 7-1 betting favorite. Other betting favorites include Rory McIlroy (+850), Tommy Fleetwood (+1500), Matt Fitzpatrick (+1500) and Jon Rahm at 20-1.
My 2026 Genesis Scottish Open Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets settled 1-2. Wyndham Clark continued his heater, posting a T13 finish to cash his Top 20 prop at +125 odds. Alex Fitzpatrick and Aaron Rai both missed the cut.
Let’s lock in three of my latest best bets for the 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale before action gets underway at 1:35 a.m. ET on Thursday morning. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free picks and analysis throughout the remainder of the PGA Tour season.
2026 Open Championship Picks: Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Top 20 Finishing Position
I’m willing to lay some juice on Matt Fitzpatrick to keep up his stellar play at Royal Birkdale this week. The Englishman just carded a T3 finish at The Renaissance Club on Sunday, marking his third top-5 finish across Fitzpatrick’s last four starts.
Tons of metrics stand out for backing Fitzpatrick for a Top 20 finish. He leads the PGA Tour in SG: Approach, ninth in total driving, third for greens in regulation hit (71.7%) and 27th in proximity.
Growing up playing links golf gives Fitzpatrick a firm edge in a return to his native country. Let’s bet on Matt Fitzpatrick to card a Top 20 Finish (Incl. Ties) at -140 odds.
Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick (-140)
Top 20 Finishing Position
We haven’t seen Justin Rose in action since a T25 at the Travelers Championship on June 25. The veteran has had a strong 2026 campaign, carding three top 10s and seven top 25s.
Now, the Englishman returns to Royal Birkdale, where he carded a top 5 finish during the 1998 Open Championship. Rose ranks 16th in SG: Approach, 19th in total driving, 14th for greens in regulation (69.7%), and 23rd on par 4.
He’s secured three finishes of T12 or better in his last five outings. Fire up another unit on Justin Rose in the Top 20 Finish (Incl. Ties) prop betting market at Royal Birkdale for +150 odds this week.
Pick: Justin Rose (+150)
Top 20 Finishing Position
Patrick Reed’s short game shined brightly at The Renaissance Club last week, as the former LIV golfer carded his third top 20 finish in just four events this season. It was Reed’s first event outside of a major, which saw a strong effort, posting 68 (-2) or 67 (-3) in every round.
Reed’s off-the-tee game can get a bit haywire. However, his approach and short game are much better, which explains why we just saw Reed climb into a T13 finish on Sunday.
Reed has three top 20 finishes in 10 Open Championship appearances. He’s failed to hit this mark in four straight outings at this major, but his current form implies the drought is set to end in Southport this weekend.
Place one more Top 20 Finish (Incl. Ties) bet on Patrick Reed at +185 odds.
Pick: Patrick Reed (+185)
